Ayrton Oneill
PDO is a statistical measure used in sports analytics, particularly in ice hockey, to evaluate a team's or player's performance and predict future success. It is calculated by adding a team's or player's shooting percentage and save percentage, which should ideally total 100% over a large number of games. A high PDO indicates a fortunate combination of strong scoring and goaltending performances, suggesting that a team may be overperforming. Conversely, a low PDO suggests underperformance and a potential future improvement in results. While PDO is not an acronym, it originates from the online handle PDO, belonging to Vic Ferrari, a prominent hockey blogger and statistical analyst who created the metric.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Full Form | PDO isn't an acronym, it's the online handle of the person who invented it |
| Definition | Combination of shooting percentage and save percentage |
| Use Case | To determine if a team is overperforming or underperforming |
| Predictive Ability | PDO is a great predictor of future performance |
| Sustainability | Helps determine if a player's performance beyond expectations is sustainable |
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What You'll Learn
PDO is a ''luck' stat
In sports, particularly hockey, PDO is often referred to as the "luck stat". It is a metric that combines shooting percentage and save percentage, providing a glimpse of a team's fortune or whether they are overperforming or underperforming. The number should typically add up to 100% over time, with the sum of the PDO of two opposing teams equalling 200%. A PDO above 100 suggests a team is fortunate in scoring and goaltending, while a PDO below 100 may indicate an unlucky team. For instance, a PDO of 103.0 could mean a team is overperforming and may regress soon, while a PDO of 98.0 could suggest a team that is underperforming and may improve in the future.
While PDO is used to indicate luck, some argue that it does not directly measure luck but rather indicates it by comparing measurable statistics to actual results. It is important to note that PDO does not account for the impact of defenders, who can hinder attackers and indirectly protect the goalie by making shots less dangerous. Additionally, the "luck" aspect is often associated with being above or below the 98-102 threshold, indicating good or bad luck, respectively.
PDO is calculated by taking the sum of a team's shooting percentage and save percentage. For example, if there are two goals in a game from 40 shots, the shooting percentage is 5%. If 38 saves were made out of those 40 shots, the save percentage is 95%. Adding these percentages gives a PDO of 100%.
In summary, PDO is considered a "luck stat" because it provides insight into a team's fortune by comparing their shooting and save percentages. While it does not directly measure luck, deviations from the expected sum of 100% can indicate whether a team is benefiting from good luck or facing bad luck.
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It's the sum of shooting and save percentages
In basketball, PDO refers to the sum of shooting and save percentages. It is a metric that indicates whether a team is overperforming or underperforming. A high PDO suggests that a team is fortunate in terms of scoring and goaltending. While it does not guarantee consistent success, it highlights the role of luck or fortune in winning. PDO is calculated as the sum of true shooting percentage and save percentage, which should ideally total 100% over an extended period.
True shooting percentage is an advanced statistic that measures a player's efficiency in shooting, including field goals and free throws. It provides a more comprehensive assessment of a player's shooting ability than individual percentages.
The true shooting percentage formula involves dividing half the points scored by the sum of field goals attempted plus 0.475 times the free throws attempted. This metric is abbreviated as TS% and is used to identify efficient scorers in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Notable players with high TS% include Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, demonstrating their ability to consistently score points for their teams.
The PDO statistic provides insight into the balance of luck and skill in basketball. While a high PDO indicates fortune, it does not guarantee sustained success. Teams with high PDO may experience a regression to the mean, indicating that their performance stabilizes over time. Therefore, while PDO offers valuable insights, it should be considered alongside other factors, such as roster strength and individual player skills, to gain a comprehensive understanding of a team's performance and potential.
The calculation of PDO and true shooting percentage showcases the analytical side of basketball strategy. These metrics help coaches and analysts evaluate players' and teams' performance, make strategic decisions, and identify areas for improvement. By considering the interplay of luck and skill, coaches can develop data-driven approaches to enhance their teams' performance and decision-making on the court.
In summary, the PDO in basketball refers to the sum of shooting and save percentages. It highlights the role of fortune in winning and provides a statistical perspective on team performance. While PDO is a useful indicator, it should be interpreted within the broader context of the game, considering factors such as player skills, tactics, and long-term performance trends. By understanding PDO, coaches and analysts can make more informed decisions to optimize their teams' performance on the court.
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It's not an acronym
In basketball, PDO is not an acronym. It is the online handle of the person who invented it, a prominent hockey blogger and statistical analyst named Vic Ferrari. PDO is often referred to as the "luck" stat, as it exposes the idea that all wins are created equal. It is the combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, which should typically add up to 100% over a long enough timeline. For example, if there are two goals in a game from 40 shots, then 5% of the shots went in. If 38 saves were made, then goaltending saved at a rate of 95%.
A high PDO indicates a team is fortunate because it means they have both fortunate scoring and goaltending. It is a great predictor of future performance and works even better for those at the extremes. For instance, if a team or player has a high PDO, it is likely to decrease in the future, and vice versa.
PDO can be used to make predictions about whether a player will be able to replicate one year's success. It is also useful for understanding the performance of a team. For example, a team with a high PDO may be winning with fortune more than merit.
While PDO is a useful tool, it is not perfect and should be considered alongside other factors when analysing performance in basketball.
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It's a good predictor of future performance
In ice hockey, PDO is a statistic that indicates whether a team is overperforming or underperforming. It is calculated by multiplying the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage by 100. A PDO score over 100 indicates that a team is fortunate, whereas a score under 100 indicates that a team is unlucky. For example, a PDO of 103.0 could mean that a team will regress sooner rather than later. On the other hand, a PDO of 98.0 could indicate that a team is due for better days ahead.
While PDO is not a direct measure of a team's skill, it can be a good predictor of future performance in basketball. This is because it provides insight into whether a team is winning based on talent or luck. For example, a team with a high PDO may be winning more games due to fortunate scoring and goaltending rather than sheer talent. Similarly, a team with a low PDO may be losing more games due to bad luck rather than a lack of skill. Therefore, PDO can help identify underlying trends and patterns that may not be apparent in a team's win-loss record alone.
Additionally, PDO can be used to identify potential areas for improvement or regression. A high PDO may indicate that a team is overperforming and may need to focus on sustaining their performance or addressing any underlying issues. On the other hand, a low PDO may suggest that a team is underperforming and may have the potential to improve with continued effort and development.
It is important to note that PDO is just one metric among many in sports analytics. Other statistics, such as Corsi (which measures shot attempts) and Fenwick (which focuses on unblocked shot attempts), can also provide valuable insights into team performance. By considering a range of analytics, coaches, and analysts can make more informed decisions and predictions about a team's future performance.
In the context of basketball, while I couldn't find specific information on the use of PDO, it is likely that it functions similarly to other sports. By analyzing the shooting and save percentages of basketball teams, PDO could provide insights into a team's offensive and defensive performance. This, in turn, could help predict future performance by identifying trends and areas for improvement. However, as with any statistical model, it is important to consider other factors that may impact a team's performance, such as player injuries, trades, or strategic changes.
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It's often used in hockey
In ice hockey, analytics is used to gain a greater understanding of the effects of players' and teams' performance through the use of statistics and other tools. PDO is one such basic statistic, often considered a measure of luck. It is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, which is then multiplied by 100 to give the team's PDO.
A PDO of over 102 suggests a team is probably not as good as they seem, while a PDO below 98 indicates a team is likely better than they appear. This is because, over time, most teams' PDOs will tend towards 100. A high PDO indicates a team has both fortunate scoring and fortunate goaltending. PDO is often used in conjunction with Corsi and Fenwick, which use shot attempts to approximate puck possession.
PDO is not an acronym but is instead the online handle of Brian King, the first person to propose it. It is sometimes referred to as SPSV% by the NHL. While PDO is often used as a shorthand for luck, some have argued that it is a better indication of fortune, which gives respect to the skill of shooters and netminders.
Teams with a high PDO will likely experience regression to the mean, as very few teams perform outside of the 98-102 range over multiple seasons. This is why PDO is often seen as a proxy for luck. However, PDO should be used as a starting point for analysis, and if the number is unusual, further investigation into the underlying metrics is required.
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Frequently asked questions
PDO is not an acronym. It is the handle of the person who invented it, Vic Ferrari, a prominent hockey blogger and statistical analyst.
PDO refers to the combination of shooting percentage and save percentage. This number typically adds up to 100% over a long period of time.
PDO is often referred to as the "luck stat" as it indicates whether a team is overperforming or underperforming. It is a great predictor of future performance.
PDO is calculated by adding the team's even-strength shooting percentage and even-strength save percentage.
