Ayrton Oneill
Possession is a fundamental part of basketball and is defined by the NBA as a team possession when a player is holding, dribbling or passing the ball. A possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. The number of possessions a team has is important because the more possessions a team is successful in, the more likely they are to win the game. There are various ways to calculate possessions, but the most common formula is (FGA – OR) + TO + (Y * FTA), where FGA = field goal attempts, OR = offensive rebounds, TO = turnovers, Y = a number between zero and 1, and FTA = free throw attempts.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Possession starts | When a player is holding, dribbling or passing the ball |
| Possession ends | When the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt |
| Possession calculation | FGA + 0.44 x FTA + TO |
| Possession calculation (college basketball) | FGA + 0.475 x FTA + TO |
| Possession calculation (Dean Oliver) | FGA – OR + TO + (Y * FTA) |
| Possession calculation (John Hollinger) | FGA + 0.44 x FTA + TO |
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What You'll Learn
Possession ending
Possession is a fundamental part of basketball, with the game being based on teams taking turns to have possession. The team with possession is said to be on offense, and they can dribble, pass, or shoot the ball. The defensive team tries to prevent them from scoring.
A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt.
There are a few different ways to determine when a possession has ended:
- A shot is made or missed and the offensive team does not get an offensive rebound.
- The offensive team turns the ball over.
- The offensive team goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or doesn't get the rebound of a missed last shot.
- A missed final free-throw attempt results in a defensive rebound.
- A missed field goal attempt results in a defensive rebound.
The NBA's official possession-counting statistic estimates possessions by looking at the box score. The formula dictates that every possession ends with a shot, a free throw attempt, or a turnover. However, not every shot, free throw attempt, or turnover attempt ends a possession.
There are also a few formulas used to estimate the number of possessions in a game:
- FGA + 0.44 FTA + TO
- FGA + 0.475 FTA - ORB + TO
- (FGA – OR) + TO + (Y FTA)
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Possession termination
Made Shot or Field Goal
If an offensive player makes a shot, their team's possession ends. This is because the other team will then gain possession of the ball, either by retrieving the ball from the net or receiving it from the referees after a successful shot.
Missed Shot and Defensive Rebound
If an offensive player misses a shot and the defensive team retrieves the rebound, the offensive team's possession ends. This is because the defensive team now has possession of the ball.
Turnover
If the offensive team loses the ball before a shot is attempted, through a steal, violation, or otherwise, their possession ends. This is because the other team now has possession of the ball.
Free Throw Attempts
When an offensive player is fouled and awarded free throws, their team's possession can end in several ways. If the free throw attempt is made, the possession ends as the other team will gain the ball. If the free throw is missed and the defensive team secures the rebound, the offensive team's possession ends. Additionally, if a player is fouled while making a shot and awarded a free throw, the possession may be considered terminated if the shot clock expires or the quarter ends before the free throw is taken.
It is important to note that the exact rules and interpretations of possession termination can vary slightly depending on the league and level of play. For example, in some cases, an offensive rebound may be considered a continuation of the same possession, while in other cases, it may be counted as a new possession.
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Possession counting
Possession is a fundamental aspect of basketball, with the game revolving around teams taking turns to hold possession. The team in possession can dribble, pass, or shoot the ball, with the ultimate goal of scoring points. The team not in possession, or the defensive team, aims to prevent the other team from scoring.
A team is considered to be in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. An offensive rebound is not considered a new possession and does not end the original possession. This is because offensive rebounds can equalize the number of possessions for each team and are a skill that some teams possess better than others.
There are varying formulas to calculate the number of possessions in a game, with the most common being:
> (FGA – OR) + TO + (Y * FTA)
Where FGA = field goal attempts, OR = offensive rebounds, TO = turnovers, Y = a number between zero and 1, and FTA = free throw attempts. This formula can be adjusted for greater precision by adding "turnovers that are assigned to teams". Another formula used to calculate possession is:
> FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO
Where FGA = field goal attempts, FTA = free throw attempts, and TO = turnovers. This formula can also be adjusted to account for offensive rebounds:
> FGA + 0.475 * FTA – ORB + TO
Where ORB = offensive rebounds.
The NBA's official possession-counting statistic involves examining the box score, which includes data on rebounds, steals, assists, and points. While it is easy to determine how many points a team scored from a box score, determining the number of possessions is more complex.
The most accurate way to count possessions is to have a human make judgments about what constitutes a possession. This is because certain scenarios, such as buzzer-beaters and half-court shots, do not always result in meaningful possessions or the other team gaining possession.
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Possession estimation
Possession is a fundamental aspect of basketball, with the game revolving around teams taking turns to possess the ball. The team in possession can dribble, pass, or shoot the ball, with the ultimate goal of scoring points. Thus, understanding possession and maximising its utilisation is crucial for a team's success.
Estimating possessions is a complex task, and various methods have been proposed to calculate it. One of the most common formulas for estimating possessions is:
> (FGA – OR) + TO + (Y * FTA)
Here, FGA refers to field goal attempts, OR stands for offensive rebounds, TO represents turnovers, Y is a number between zero and 1, and FTA denotes free throw attempts. This formula accounts for the different ways a possession can end: a shot not rebounded by the offense, a turnover, or a free throw attempt.
However, this formula has its limitations, particularly regarding free throw attempts. Not all free throw attempts result in a change of possession, and the formula needs to be adjusted to reflect this. One suggestion is to replace 0.44FTA with the actual number of free-throw line trips to get a more accurate measure of possessions. This adjustment recognises that not all free throw attempts lead to meaningful possessions.
Another formula that has been proposed is:
> FGA + 0.475 x FTA - ORB + TO
This formula, commonly used in college basketball, includes a multiplier of 0.475 for free throw attempts, recognising that not all free throw attempts result in a change of possession.
It's worth noting that the NBA has its own formula for estimating possessions, which is based on the box score of a game. This formula considers the four ways a possession can change:
- The team makes a shot.
- The team misses a shot and doesn't get an offensive rebound.
- The team turns the ball over.
- The team goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or doesn't get the rebound of a missed last shot.
While this formula provides a good estimate, it may not capture all the nuances of possession, especially in situations where buzzer-beaters or half-court shots occur without resulting in meaningful possessions for the other team.
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Possession calculation
Possession is a fundamental part of basketball and is defined by the NBA as "Section XVIII-Team Possession". A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. This possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt.
However, the exact calculation of possession is more complex. Possession is a critical statistic in basketball analytics, allowing teams to compute other statistics on a per-possession basis. The most common formula for estimating possessions is:
FGA – OR) + TO + (Y * FTA)
Where FGA = field goal attempts, OR = offensive rebounds, TO = turnovers, Y = a number between zero and 1, and FTA = free throw attempts.
This formula captures the three main ways a possession can end:
- A shot not rebounded by the offense (FGA-OR)
- A turnover (TO)
- A free throw attempt (FTA)
However, this formula does not account for all scenarios, such as end-of-quarter situations or the impact of offensive rebounds on possession length.
Another formula that aims to address some of these complexities is:
FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO
This formula uses a multiplier of 0.44 for free throw attempts because not all free throws result in a change of possession. It also does not include offensive rebounds, assuming they do not end possessions.
Despite these formulas, the most accurate way to count possessions is still considered to be "having a human in the loop" to make judgments about what constitutes a possession in different game scenarios.
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Frequently asked questions
Possession in basketball is when a player is holding, dribbling or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt.
A possession ends when the defensive team gains possession, there is a field goal attempt, a defensive rebound, or a turnover.
The most common formula for estimating possessions is (FGA – OR) + TO + (Y * FTA), where FGA = field goal attempts, OR = offensive rebounds, TO = turnovers, Y = a number between zero and 1, and FTA = free throw attempts.
Possession is important because it allows teams to compute statistics on a per-possession basis. The more possessions a team is successful on, the more likely they are to win the game.
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