Helena Frye
The NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, also known as March Madness, is a single-elimination tournament with 68 teams competing. The tournament is structured in brackets, where teams are placed within a bracket and face off against opponents based on seeding. Fans fill out brackets, predicting the winners of each game, in both formal contests and informal betting pools. While randomly picking teams based on preferences is an option, there are strategies to improve your bracket picks. The basic rule is that higher-seeded teams are more likely to win, but upsets do occur, and choosing the right upsets is key to winning a bracket pool. Points are accumulated in each round, with higher points awarded in later rounds, so focus on choosing the champion and teams likely to advance.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Number of teams | 64 or 68 |
| Team seeding | Higher-seeded teams are more likely to win |
| Single-elimination format | Winners advance, losers are eliminated |
| Points | Points are accumulated in every round, with higher points awarded in later rounds |
| Strategy | "Picking chalk" is a safe strategy, but upsets are common |
| Early rounds | The first weekend is the most exciting part of the tournament, with basketball broadcast from morning to night |
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What You'll Learn
Understanding the basics of brackets
A bracket or tournament bracket is a tree-like diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. The simplest and most common type of bracket is the single-elimination tournament, where winners advance within the brackets and losers are eliminated.
The NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament is a well-known example of brackets used in college sports. The tournament starts with 68 teams, eight of which play elimination games called the "First Four". The remaining 64 teams are then divided into four "regions", with each region consisting of 16 teams. These teams are organised according to their seeding, with higher-seeded teams matched against lower-seeded teams. The winners of each game advance within the bracket, and the losers are eliminated.
The basic strategy for picking brackets is to consider the seeding of the teams. Higher-seeded teams are more likely to win, although there are usually about a dozen upsets where the lower-seeded team wins. It's important to note that not all games are weighted equally, and the closer the round is to the national championship, the more points are awarded for correct predictions. Therefore, it's crucial to focus on choosing the champion and the teams that are likely to advance to the later rounds.
Additionally, it's important to be selective when picking upsets. While it is rare for a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed, it has happened a couple of times in the history of the tournament. So, while it is a risky strategy, it could potentially give you an edge in your bracket predictions.
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How to fill out brackets
Filling out a bracket is a fun endeavour, especially if you're a basketball fan. Brackets are tree-like diagrams that represent the series of games played during a knockout tournament. Here are some tips on how to fill out your basketball brackets:
Understand the Basics
The NCAA tournaments start with 68 teams, eight of which are the "First Four" who play elimination games. Once the eight teams are cut down to four, the true 64-team NCAA fields are set. These 64 teams are divided into four groups, called "regions". The teams are then seeded, meaning they are ranked within their regions, with the top seed playing the worst seed, the second-best seed playing the second-worst seed, and so on.
Picking Your Teams
The higher the seed, the more likely a team is to win. However, upsets do happen, and on average, there are about a dozen games where the lower-seeded team wins. When picking your teams, focus on choosing the champion and the teams you think will make it to the later rounds, as these rounds offer more points. You can also look at historical data on upsets to help guide your selections.
Watch the Games
The first weekend of the tournament is the most exciting part, with basketball being broadcast from morning to night for four straight days. Every hour, your bracket could get a boost or take a hit, depending on the outcomes. Watching the games can help you quickly become a fan of the teams you've picked, even if you don't know much about them.
Don't Stress Too Much
Remember, brackets are for everyone, and you don't have to be an expert to fill one out. You can use any strategy you like, whether it's picking teams based on your favourite mascot or a more analytical approach. The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are extremely low, so just focus on having fun and enjoying the excitement of the tournament.
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Choosing upsets
Number of Upsets
The number of upsets to choose depends on your risk tolerance. Generally, five upsets are considered too few, while 15 may be too many. The sweet spot is somewhere in between. In recent years, there have been at least 10 upsets in about a third of the tournaments. If you want to play it safe, aim for five to seven upsets. If you're feeling adventurous, go for 11.
Rounds to Focus On
The first round is crucial for upsets, with around half of your upset picks ideally coming in this round. This is due to the large number of games and the quality of teams advancing. Additionally, focus on the early rounds, as upsets are more common when teams are only separated by a few spots in seeding.
Seeding to Target
When choosing upsets, consider targeting No. 2 seeds in the second round. In the past, a No. 2 seed has been upset by a No. 7 or No. 10 seed about once a year on average. While it's a risky move, if you believe a high seed is vulnerable, the payoff can be significant, as seen with St. Peter's upset win over No. 2 seed Kentucky in 2022.
Historical Context
Understand the history of early-round upsets. While extremely rare, it is possible for a No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed, with two such upsets occurring in the last seven years. No. 3 and No. 4 seeds are also more vulnerable than they used to be, so consider targeting them for potential upsets.
Avoid Common Pitfalls
Don't fall into the trap of picking a No. 16 seed to win unless you have a strong reason to do so. It has only happened twice in the history of the tournament. Also, be cautious about picking against a No. 2 seed in the first round, as it is a highly risky proposition.
Remember, choosing upsets is a challenging part of bracketology, and it's okay to guess wrong. Focus on understanding the teams, their seeds, and historical data to make informed decisions.
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Bracket scoring
The NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament is a single-elimination tournament, in which millions of fans fill out brackets to predict the winners of each game. The simplest strategy for filling out a bracket is to "pick chalk", which means choosing the higher-seeded team in each game. This is a safe strategy because higher-seeded teams are more likely to win, but it is unlikely to help you win a bracket pool.
Bracket pools award points for each correct pick, and these points usually increase with each round. For example, choosing the winner of a first-round game may be worth two points, while correct picks in the second round could be worth four points each. The closer the round is to the national championship game, the more points are typically awarded. Therefore, it is important to focus on choosing the champion and the teams that will advance to the latest rounds.
While it is safe to pick the higher-seeded team in most cases, there are usually about a dozen upsets in each tournament where the lower-seeded team wins. These upsets most frequently occur when the teams are only separated by a few spots in the seeding. However, even upsets where the teams are separated by five or more spots happen about eight times per tournament. Therefore, winning a bracket pool requires correctly predicting these upsets.
The odds of filling out a bracket with the winner of every game correctly picked are extremely low, approximately 1 in 9.2 quintillion. As of 2025, no one has ever achieved a perfect bracket, with the best record being 49 correct predictions in a row. Despite the difficulty, filling out a bracket can be a fun and low-cost endeavour.
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Bracketology
The term "bracketology" was first used in 1996 by the Philadelphia Inquirer to describe college basketball expert Joe Lunardi, who had been making predictions about the selection committee's bracket choices. Lunardi went on to start Bracketology.net, and ESPN began running his predictions. By 2002, he had his own Bracketology page with ESPN, and he now teaches an online course called "Fundamentals of Bracketology" at Saint Joseph's University.
How to Pick Brackets
The main NCAA tournament comprises 64 teams split into four "regions". These regions are not assigned based on geography but rather on a process determined by the Selection Committee. The teams are seeded based on their skill level, with No. 1 seeds being the highest and having the highest likelihood of winning.
When picking brackets, it is important to note that, on average, there are about a dozen games where the lower-seeded team wins, most frequently when the teams are only separated by a few spots. There are usually at least five upsets where teams are separated by five or more spots. One strategy is to pick the higher-seeded teams, a strategy referred to as "picking chalk". This is a safe way to ensure you don’t finish last, but it is important to also selectively pick some upsets to have a chance at winning your bracket pool.
Points are accumulated in every round, but they are not evenly weighted. The later the round, the more points are awarded for correct picks. Therefore, it is important to focus on choosing the champion as well as several teams that you think will make it to the later rounds.
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