Helena Frye
Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a metric used to evaluate the strength of college basketball teams. It measures how much better a team's resume is compared to a team that is on the cusp of making the tournament. WAB is calculated by first determining the expected winning percentage for an average bubble team in each game of a team's schedule and then subtracting that from the team's actual number of wins. For example, if an average bubble team is expected to win 10 games against a certain schedule, but the team in question wins 12 games, their WAB would be +2. WAB is similar to the WAR (wins above replacement) metric used in MLB statistics to evaluate a player's value in terms of team wins contributed compared to a league-average replacement player.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Full Form | Wins Above Bubble |
| Purpose | To measure how much better a team’s resume is compared to a team that is on the cusp of making the tournament |
| Calculation | Expected winning percentage for an average bubble team in each game of a team’s schedule subtracted from the team’s actual number of wins |
| Example | If an average bubble team is expected to win 10 games against Team X’s schedule, but Team X won 15 games, they would have a WAB of +5. If Team X won only 5 games, their WAB would be -5. |
| Similarity | WAR (wins above replacement) used in MLB statistics |
| Other Metrics | RAPTOR, PIPM, ESPN’s RPM, Kenpom, T-Rank, Strength of Record |
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What You'll Learn
Calculating WAB
Wins Above Bubble, or WAB, is a metric used to evaluate the strength of college basketball teams. It was popularized by Seth Burn and added to the NCAA men's basketball selection criteria in 2024. WAB calculates the expected winning percentage for an average bubble team in each game of a team's schedule and then subtracts that from the team's actual number of wins. This allows for a more standardized comparison of teams, especially in college basketball where teams can have vastly different schedules.
To calculate WAB, the first step is to determine how a bubble team would be expected to perform against a given team's schedule. This involves looking at how many points each team scores or allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule. These numbers can be found using offensive and defensive ratings, such as Her Hoop Stats Offensive and Defensive Ratings.
Next, these ratings are used to calculate each team's probability of beating an average team. This can be done using log5 to determine the probability that a typical bubble team would win each game. For example, if the 40th-best team has a 75% chance to win a game, that translates to an expected value of 0.75 wins. If the team in question actually wins the game, they will have 1 win, or 0.25 more wins than expected.
Finally, these values are summed up for each game on a team's schedule to get their final WAB score. A positive WAB score indicates a team has won more games than expected of a bubble team, while a negative WAB score indicates the team has won fewer games than expected.
WAB is similar to the WAR (wins above replacement) metric used in MLB to evaluate a player's value in terms of team wins contributed compared to a league average replacement. WAB provides an objective measure of a team's resume strength and can be useful for ranking teams and making tournament selections. However, it is important to note that WAB does not take into account the margin of victory and is not intended to predict future results.
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WAB in NCAA basketball
Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a metric used to evaluate the strength of college basketball teams in the NCAA. It measures how much better a team's performance is compared to a team that is on the cusp of making the tournament, or a "bubble team". The WAB metric was created by Bart Torvik and Seth Burn and is used alongside other ranking systems such as the AP Poll, RPI, NET, and Her Hoop Stats Ratings.
The basic idea behind WAB is to calculate the number of wins a team has above what a typical bubble team would be expected to achieve against the same schedule. For example, if Team A has a record of 14-2, and a bubble team would be expected to go 11-5 against the same schedule, then Team A will have a WAB of 3. A negative WAB indicates that a team has won fewer games than expected of a bubble team. It's important to note that WAB does not consider the margin of victory, focusing solely on wins and losses.
To calculate WAB, the first step is to determine how a bubble team would perform against a given team's schedule. This involves considering the points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for the strength of the schedule. These values are then used to calculate the probability of the bubble team beating an average team. The bubble team's win probability for a game is considered the expected value of wins for that game. For example, if the bubble team has a 75% chance of winning, they are expected to come away with 0.75 wins. If they win the game, they will have 1 win, resulting in a WAB of 0.25 for that game. This calculation is done for each game, and the WAB values are summed up to get the team's WAB for the season.
The WAB metric provides an objective way to evaluate the strength of college basketball teams in the NCAA. It helps to determine which teams are most deserving of making the tournament based on their results, rather than just the strength of their schedule. By using WAB, the NCAA can better assess the value of each win and loss, providing a more comprehensive evaluation of teams beyond simply win-loss records.
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WAB ranking systems
Wins Above Bubble, or WAB, is a ranking system used to evaluate the strength of college basketball teams. It is a metric that measures how much better a team's resume is compared to a team that is on the cusp of making the tournament. WAB calculates the expected winning percentage for an average bubble team in each game of a team's schedule and then subtracts that from the team's actual number of wins. For example, if a bubble team is expected to win 10 games against a certain schedule but wins 15, their WAB is +5. If they win fewer games than expected, their WAB will be a negative number.
WAB was created by Bart Torvik and popularized by Seth Burn. It is similar to the WAR (wins above replacement) metric used in MLB statistics, which measures a player's value in terms of team wins contributed compared to a league-average replacement player. WAB is based on statistical projections from sites like Kenpom and Torvik, which provide possession-by-possession quality data for teams. These values can be used to derive an expected win percentage when two teams face off.
WAB is particularly useful when ranking college basketball teams because there are hundreds of NCAA Division I women's basketball teams, and the difference between the toughest and easiest schedules is significant. Other ranking systems for college basketball teams include the AP Poll, RPI, NET, Her Hoop Stats Ratings, and Ken Massey Ratings. However, these systems do not always account for the strength of a team's schedule.
One advantage of WAB is that it gives credit to mid-major teams that perform well against lower-level opponents. These teams may be disregarded by other ranking systems that treat lower-level games as automatic victories that can only hurt, not help, a team's ranking. WAB also does not suffer from arbitrary dividing lines like the quad system, where victories are treated equally within each "quad" bucket, regardless of the quality of the opponent.
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WAB score impact
Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a metric used to evaluate the strength of college basketball teams. It was popularized by Seth Burn and is based on the expected winning percentage of an average "bubble" team—a team on the cusp of making a tournament—and how that compares to a given team's actual number of wins. WAB is calculated by subtracting the expected number of wins for a bubble team from the team's actual wins.
The impact of WAB is that it provides a more objective way to assess and rank college basketball teams, particularly in the context of tournament selection. It takes into account the strength of a team's schedule and their performance against that schedule, rather than simply their overall win-loss record. This is especially useful in college basketball, where there can be a significant variation in the difficulty of schedules across different teams.
For example, consider two teams with the same win-loss record of 15-5. On the surface, they appear equally matched. However, when considering the strength of their schedules, Team A's record is against weaker opponents, while Team B's record is against stronger opponents. WAB allows for a more nuanced evaluation of their résumés. If Team A is expected to have a 10-10 record against their schedule, their WAB would be +5, indicating they performed better than expected. If Team B was expected to have a 12-8 record against their tougher schedule, their WAB would also be +5, indicating they also exceeded expectations, despite having the same win-loss record as Team A.
WAB also helps to identify teams that may be "bubble" teams—those on the cusp of making a tournament. It can provide insight into which teams are most deserving of a tournament berth based on their performance relative to their schedule strength. This can help selection committees make more informed decisions and ensure that teams are evaluated based on their proven results, rather than solely on subjective opinions or rankings.
While WAB has its benefits, it is important to acknowledge that it is not a perfect metric. It does not consider margin of victory, recent performances, or factors such as injuries and suspensions. Additionally, the calculation of WAB depends on the rating system used, and different WAB formulas can produce varying results. Despite these limitations, WAB provides a valuable tool for assessing and comparing college basketball teams, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of their performance and tournament potential.
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WAB compared to other metrics
WAB, or Wins Above Bubble, is a metric used in college basketball to evaluate the strength of a team's performance relative to a "bubble-quality" team, which is a team on the cusp of making it into a tournament. It was popularized by Seth Burn and is based on the idea of comparing a team's actual wins to the expected wins of a bubble team with the same schedule. This makes it similar to the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) metric used in MLB to evaluate a player's value compared to a league-average replacement.
WAB provides a way to account for the massive difference in performance between the top and bottom college basketball teams, which is not adequately captured by simple rating systems like SRS (Simple Rating System) used in the NBA. In the NBA, every team plays each other at least once, whereas in college basketball, there are over 350 Division I women's basketball teams and a chasm-like difference between the toughest and easiest schedules.
While WAB is a useful tool, it is not without its flaws. One limitation is that each bubble team has different strengths and weaknesses, and with basketball being a highly matchup-driven sport, different bubble teams will have varying chances of winning any given game. Thus, WAB may not always provide an accurate representation of a team's performance.
Despite this, WAB remains a valuable metric for assessing the résumés of two teams and determining their relative strength. It is often used alongside other ranking systems like the AP Poll, RPI, NET, and Her Hoop Stats Ratings to gain a more comprehensive understanding of team performance and make predictions for tournaments.
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Frequently asked questions
WAB stands for Wins Above Bubble. It is a metric used to measure how much better a team’s resume is compared to a team that is on the cusp of making a tournament.
First, you need to know how many points each team scores or allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule. Then, use those ratings to calculate each team’s probability of beating an average team. Finally, award or revoke credit to a team based on whether they won or lost the game.
A positive WAB score indicates that a team has won more games than expected of a bubble team against its schedule. The higher the WAB score, the better the team is performing compared to a bubble team.
Let's say an average bubble team is expected to win 18 games against Team X's schedule. If Team X wins 19 games, their WAB will be +1. If they win 17 games, their WAB will be -1.
WAB is used to evaluate the strength of college basketball teams and their performance relative to a bubble team. It can be used as a selection criterion for tournaments, helping to identify which teams are most deserving of making the cut.
