Andrew Pace
Basketball analytics has evolved to include per possession or per 100 possessions metrics, which are essential for understanding the game's basics. Possession is a critical factor in basketball, with offensive possession starting when a player has, dribbles, or passes the ball and ending when there is a field goal attempt or the defensive team gains possession. While there are various formulas to estimate possessions, they typically consider field goal attempts, free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, turnovers, and opponent statistics. The number of possessions can be used to calculate other advanced statistics, such as turnover percentage, offensive/defensive ratings, and pace of play. Effective management of possessions has been a key factor in the success of notable teams like the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition of Possession | Team possession is defined by the NBA as Section XVIII-Team Possession. A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling or passing the ball. Team possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. |
| Possession Calculation | The number of possessions is calculated by dividing the number of possessions by the actual minutes of the game and then multiplying by 40. |
| Possession and Pace | The number of possessions indicates the team's pace: the greater the number of possessions, the greater the game speed. |
| Possession and Offense | Statistically, a team's possession ends when it is no longer on offense. |
| Possession and Efficiency | Possession calculations are used as a basis for calculating pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency metrics. |
| Possession and Free Throws | The total number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts, accounting for one-shot instances such as technical fouls or "and-ones." |
| Possession and Turnovers | The turnover percentage is calculated by dividing the total number of turnovers by the total possessions. |
| Possession and Rebounds | Offensive rebounds do not generate new possessions. |
| Possession and Field Goal Attempts | It counts as a team possession every time a player of that team attempts a field goal. |
| Possession and Missed Shots | It counts as a team possession when a player misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound. |
| Possession and Turnovers | It counts as a team possession when a player turns the ball over. Some sources include "turnovers that are assigned to teams" for a more precise possession calculation. |
| Possession and Foul Shots | Technical foul shots and "and-ones" do not count as possessions. |
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What You'll Learn
Offensive rebounds don't generate new possessions
In basketball, a possession is defined as a player holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession for the offensive team begins when they have the ball and ends when there is a field goal attempt or the defensive team gains the ball.
The rules of basketball define possessions as strictly back and forth, with no new possessions generated by offensive rebounds. This is because rebounds are seen as extending possessions rather than creating new ones. While rebounds can provide an extra shot attempt, they do not create a new possession. This is an important distinction for statistical analysis, as it allows for a more accurate interpretation of the game and its efficiency.
The NBA's definition of possession, as outlined in Section XVIII-Team Possession, does not consider rebounds as new possessions. This definition is focused on governing and running the game rather than generating statistical data. By not counting rebounds as new possessions, analysts can produce more meaningful measures of efficiency.
Some analysts have considered the impact of counting offensive rebounds as new possessions. They argue that rebounds feel like a limbo region where neither team has possession of the ball. However, the current definition of possession is more practical for understanding the flow of the game and evaluating team performance.
The impact of offensive rebounds on possession is reflected in other ways. For example, the .96 multiplier accounts for team offensive rebounds when a missed shot is tipped out of bounds by a defensive player, continuing the possession without an offensive rebound being credited. Additionally, the formula for estimating possessions includes field goal attempts, free-throw attempts, turnovers, and offensive rebounds to provide a more comprehensive understanding of possession in the game.
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Possession calculations and pace
Possession Calculations:
- Definition of Possession: According to the NBA's definition (Section XVIII-Team Possession), a team is considered in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt.
- Field Goal Attempts: Each time a player attempts a field goal, it counts as one possession for their team.
- Missed Shots and Rebounds: If a player misses a shot and their team does not secure the offensive rebound, it is considered a lost possession.
- Turnovers: Turnovers, such as a steal or an interception by the opposing team, result in a change of possession.
- Free Throw Attempts: Free throw attempts are weighted differently as not all of them result in a possession change. The total number of free throw attempts is typically multiplied by 0.44 or 0.4 to estimate possessions ended by these attempts, accounting for technical fouls and "and-ones."
- Offensive Rebounds: It's important to note that offensive rebounds do not generate new possessions. If a team secures multiple offensive rebounds after missed shots, it is still considered one possession.
- Calculating Possession Efficiency: Possession efficiency metrics, such as Points Per Possession (PPP), Offensive Rating, and Defensive Rating, provide insights into a team's performance. Offensive Rating standardizes PPP over 100 possessions, while Defensive Rating measures opponent PPP. Net Rating (NRTG) is calculated by subtracting Defensive Rating from Offensive Rating.
Pace and Possessions:
- Pace Definition: Pace refers to the speed of play and is influenced by the number of possessions in a game. A higher number of possessions indicates a faster pace, while a lower number suggests a slower pace.
- Estimating Pace: To estimate the pace of a game, the number of possessions is divided by the actual minutes played and then multiplied by 40. This formula allows for comparisons between games that ended in regulation or overtime.
- Controlling for Pace: When analyzing statistics, it's important to control for pace. For example, a higher number of turnovers may be attributed to a faster pace with more possessions. Overtime games, increased transition opportunities, and shorter possession lengths can all contribute to a faster pace.
- Advanced Pace Analytics: Advanced analytics tools, such as spacing metrics and expected positive actions on offense and defense, provide deeper insights into a team's performance relative to pace.
Understanding possession calculations and pace is crucial for coaches, players, and analysts to make strategic decisions, evaluate team performance, and gain a deeper understanding of the game. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for analyzing and improving basketball performance.
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Possession and field goal attempts
Field goal attempts are a critical factor in possession calculations. A team possession is counted when a player attempts a field goal. This is reflected in the formula for estimating possessions, where field goal attempts are a key variable. The formula also accounts for free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, turnovers, and opponent statistics, providing a more accurate estimate of possessions.
The concept of "per possession" or "per 100 possessions" analytics has gained prominence in basketball. By adjusting the possession count to 100, analysts can calculate offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. This standardisation facilitates comparisons between teams and enhances the understanding of a team's performance.
To calculate the number of possessions in a game, a simple formula is applied. The number of possessions is divided by the total minutes of the game, and then multiplied by 40. This allows for comparisons between games, including those that go into overtime. Additionally, the pace of a team can be assessed by examining the number of possessions, with a higher number of possessions indicating a faster game tempo.
Understanding possessions and field goal attempts is crucial for basketball strategy and success. Effective management of possessions can lead to remarkable achievements, as demonstrated by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, who led the NBA in possessions per game and went on to a historic regular season. By utilising possession calculations, coaches and analysts can make informed decisions to optimise their team's performance.
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Turnovers and possession
Turnovers play a significant role in basketball analytics, particularly when calculating offensive possessions and evaluating team performance. A turnover occurs when the offensive team loses possession of the ball to the defensive team, resulting in a change of possession. This can happen due to various reasons such as a steal, a bad pass, or a violation by the offensive team.
In the context of possession calculations, turnovers are considered as ending a possession. Therefore, turnovers are an essential factor in determining the number of offensive possessions for a team. By aggregating field goals, free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds, analysts can estimate a team's total number of possessions.
To calculate the turnover percentage, a simple formula is used: divide the total number of turnovers by the total number of possessions. This yields the percentage of possessions that end in a turnover for a given team. Controlling for pace is crucial when analyzing turnover data. A faster pace, influenced by factors like overtime games or shorter possession lengths, can lead to an increased number of turnovers.
While turnovers are a crucial aspect of possession calculations, it's important to note that not all turnovers are created equal. Some turnovers may be the result of aggressive offensive play, while others may be due to defensive prowess. Context and game strategy must be considered when interpreting turnover statistics.
Additionally, when calculating possessions, it's worth mentioning that offensive rebounds do not initiate a new possession. If a team secures multiple offensive rebounds after missed shots, it is still considered one continuous possession. This distinction is important for accurately calculating possessions and understanding the flow of the game.
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Points Per Possession (PPP)
> Points / Possessions = PPP
PPP is a useful metric because it is straightforward and self-explanatory. However, it can become less interpretable with the addition of a few decimal places. To address this, the calculation can be standardised over 100 possessions, which is roughly the average number of possessions per game in the NBA. This calculation is known as Offensive Rating or Defensive Rating.
To calculate possessions, we must first define what constitutes a possession in basketball. According to the NBA, a team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. A more specific possession formula is as follows:
> 0.5 * ((Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * Free Throw Attempts – 1.07 * (Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)) * (Field Goal Attempts – FG) + Turnovers) + (Opponent Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * (Opponent Free Throw Attempts) – 1.07 * (Opponent Offensive Rebounds) / (Opponent Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds)) * (Opponent Field Goal Attempts – Opponent FG) + Opponent Turnovers))
This formula estimates possessions based on both the team's and their opponent's statistics, providing a more stable estimate. The 0.44 multiplier, or 0.4 in the above formula, is used to account for the fact that not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "AND 1"s, for example, do not result in a change of possession. Research has shown that approximately 44% of all free throws result in a change of possession.
PPP can be further broken down into specific events, such as PPP in isolation plays or PPP in pick-and-roll situations, to gain a more detailed understanding of a player's scoring efficiency.
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Frequently asked questions
Possession is defined by the NBA as Section XVIII-Team Possession. A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Team possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt.
There are various ways to calculate offensive possessions in basketball. One way is to divide the number of possessions by the actual minutes of the game and then multiply by 40. This formula allows for comparisons between games that ended after overtime and those that finished at regular times. Another way is to use the formula: Possessions = 0.5 × [Field Goal Attempts + (0.4 x Free Throw Attempts) – 1.07 x (Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)) x (Field Goal Attempts – FG) + Turnovers].
Offensive possessions in basketball include when a player on the offensive team:
- Attempts a field goal
- Misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound
- Turns the ball over
- Goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot
