Amanda Knapp
Basketball betting is legal in many US states, and totals betting is one of the most popular forms. Totals, also known as over/under bets, involve wagering on the combined score of both teams in a game. The bet is presented as an over/under, with the sportsbook setting a line for the total combined points in the game. Bettors then decide if the actual total points for the game will be over or under that line. For example, if the sportsbook sets the line at 228.5 points, you can bet on the over, and if 229 or more points are scored, you win. There are also classic totals, which are bets on the total number of points scored by both teams in the entire match. This can also be done for individual teams. To increase your chances of success, you can carefully analyse the players' physical condition, study the current line-ups and total statistics for the face-off duels and for each team.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Types of bets | Classic total, individual total, period total, player totals, moneylines, spreads, props, futures |
| How to bet | Wager on whether the total score will be over or under the line set by the sportsbook |
| Calculating totals | Add up points for last 5 matches, add 1 point for each win, subtract 1.5 points for each loss, add 3 points for home team, then divide by 5 |
| Odds | Negative (-) odds indicate favourite, positive (+) indicate underdog |
| Payout | Multiply odds by bet size and divide by 100 to get profit |
| Vigorish | Amount sportsbooks tilt odds in their favour to guarantee profit |
| Push | When a spread or total bet lands exactly on the sportsbook's line, it is a push and the sportsbook refunds the wager |
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What You'll Learn
Classic total bets
It is important to note that classic total bets can never have a draw option. This is because the bet involves wagering on a fractional number of points. For instance, a bet of TO 164.5 would result in a loss if the total score was 164 points or less, whereas a score of 165 points or more would result in a win.
There are several strategies you can employ to increase your chances of success when placing classic total bets. One strategy involves calculating the overall expected total in the match. This can be done by adding up the points scored by the home team in their last 5 matches, adding 1 point for each win and subtracting 1.5 points for each loss, then adding 3 points for the home advantage. The same calculation can be done for the away team, without the additional 3 points. The received numbers are then added together and divided by 5 to get the expected total for the upcoming match. This total can then be compared to the totals offered by the bookmakers to find the closest bet.
Another strategy to consider is shopping around before placing your bets. The odds and lines offered by different sportsbooks can vary, and minor differences can add up. Some bettors prefer to wager soon after the initial release of odds, while others wait until closer to the start of the game. Additionally, it is worth noting that the odds and lines can shift in response to betting action or new information such as injuries. Therefore, staying up to date with the latest information can help inform your betting decisions.
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Individual total bets
In basketball, individual total betting means wagering bets on a single team. This works on the same principle as the classic total, but only for one of the two teams. Bookmakers often list the teams as "TU" and "TO", which stand for "total under" and "total over".
In the NBA and some European leagues, bookies offer bets on the performance statistics of certain basketball players. These include player totals, which are bets on the total number of points scored by a player.
To make smart individual total bets, you can follow certain rules to increase your chances of success. Firstly, carefully analyse the players' physical condition. It is very difficult to play day after day, especially after a long flight, and players can quickly lose their shape. Secondly, study the current line-ups, as important players can get kicked off the roster due to minor injuries, suspensions, or personal problems. Lastly, study the total statistics for the face-off duels and for each team.
There are also strategies for calculating the expected total in a basketball match. One such strategy involves calculating the expected total of the home team by adding up their points for the last five matches, adding one point for each win and subtracting 1.5 points for each loss, then adding three points since they are playing on their home site. The same calculation can be done for the visiting team, without adding the three points for the home site. Add the two numbers and divide by five to get the expected total in the upcoming match. Compare this number with the total offered by the bookmakers and wager the closest bet to the one you calculated.
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Betting on player totals
When it comes to betting on basketball, totals are a popular choice. Also known as over/under bets, they involve wagering on the combined score of both teams in a game. The NBA and some European leagues offer bets on the performance statistics of certain basketball players, with lots of bets on player totals.
There is no risk-free way to bet on player totals, but there are some rules to follow to increase your chances of success. Firstly, carefully analyse the players' physical condition. It is very difficult to play day after day, especially after a long flight, so take this into account. Study the current line-ups, as important players can be kicked off the roster due to minor injuries, suspensions, or personal problems.
You can also calculate the expected total of a team by adding up their points for the last five matches, adding one point for each win and subtracting 1.5 points for each loss. Add three points if they are the home team. Do the same for the visiting team, without the extra three points, then add the two numbers together and divide by five. Compare this to the total offered by the bookmakers and wager on the closest bet.
It's a good idea to shop around before placing bets, as the odds won't always be the same everywhere, and minor differences can add up. You can also bet on the favourite minus the spread number or the underdog plus the number. To win the bet, the side you choose must cover the spread.
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Over/under totals
Oddsmakers set the line for over/under totals by measuring the matchup between the two teams and considering both offensive and defensive production. They then set an expected total number of points to be scored by both teams, which bettors can wager on. This expected total can be calculated using a special formula that takes into account the teams' recent performance and whether they are playing at home or away.
It's important to note that when placing over/under total bets, there is a higher chance of odd numbers hitting than even numbers due to the possibility of a tie at the end of regulation. Additionally, shopping around before placing bets is advisable, as odds and lines can vary across different sportsbooks and can shift in response to betting action or new information.
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Point spreads
Oddsmakers set a line for the total combined points in a game, and you decide if you think the actual total points will be over or under that line. This is known as an Over/Under bet. For example, the Over/Under total between the Los Angeles Lakers and Toronto Raptors is set at 222.5 points. If you bet on the Over, the final score must total 223 points or more for your bet to win. If you bet on the Under, the final score must be 222 points or fewer.
The spread of a game can influence the chances of a tie. As the spread of a game increases, the chances of a tie decrease. For example, if the Lakers are a 16-point favourite over the Hawks, their chance of being tied at the end is much lower than two evenly matched teams.
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Frequently asked questions
Totals betting, also known as over/under betting, involves wagering on the combined score of both teams in a game. You decide if you think the actual total points for the game will be over or under the line set by the sportsbook.
There are a few ways to calculate the total number of points in a game. One strategy is to calculate the expected total of the home team by adding up their points for the last 5 matches, adding 1 point for each win and subtracting 1.5 points for each loss. Then, add 3 points as they are playing on their home site. Calculate the visiting team's points using the same method, but without adding 3 points at the end. Add the two numbers together and divide by 5 to get the expected total.
A basketball squad with negative odds (-) is considered the favourite to win. The team with positive odds (+) is the underdog. You can use odds to determine your potential payout. If the odds are positive, multiply them by your bet size and then divide by 100 to reveal your profit. If the odds are negative, they show the bet size you need to make to win $100.
There is no perfect recipe for risk-free betting on basketball totals. However, you can increase your chances of success by carefully analysing the players' physical condition, studying the current line-ups, and looking at the total statistics for the face-off duels and for each team.
