Andrew Pace
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. It is a method of determining a player's impact on the game by measuring their per-minute performance. The PER is computed using a detailed, complex formula that, in essence, adds positive stats such as rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats such as missed shots or turnovers. The final step is to standardize aPER, which involves calculating the league average aPER (lg_aPER) using player minutes played as weights and setting the league average to 15 for all seasons. The PER provides a snapshot of where players stand in relation to one another and is useful for determining the value of injuries.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Full Form | Player Efficiency Rating (PER) |
| Calculation | Adds positive stats such as rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats such as missed shots or turnovers |
| Calculation Base | Per minute |
| Use Case | Determining the value of injuries |
| Creator | John Hollinger, former Memphis Grizzlies Vice President of Basketball Operations and current author and basketball analytics expert for ESPN |
| League Average PER | 15.00 |
| PER Calculation Example | Kevin Durant averaged 28ppg in the 2011-12 season, and his PER was calculated to be 37.5ppg per 100 possessions |
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What You'll Learn
Calculating PER
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. It is a method of determining a player's impact on the game by measuring their per-minute performance. In Hollinger's own words, "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance."
PER is computed using a detailed, complex formula that, in essence, adds positive stats such as rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats such as missed shots or turnovers. The formula is also tailored to the team's speed. Finally, one number summarizes the players' statistical achievements for the season.
PER is particularly useful in basketball betting, especially in determining the value of injuries. For example, a star player's absence is likely to have a huge impact on a team. However, PER can also help identify how efficient and effective role players are in their limited minutes off the bench.
One drawback of PER is that defensive specialists are often undervalued in the calculation as there are not many reliable defensive stats to input into the formula. Good defense is harder to quantify.
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PER in basketball betting
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. It sums up a player's statistical accomplishments in a single number, measuring a player's per-minute performance, normalized so that the league average is 15. The aim of PER is to condense all of a player's contributions into one number. It is computed using a detailed, complex formula that adds positive stats such as rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats such as missed shots or turnovers.
PER is a valuable tool for basketball betting as it provides a snapshot of a player's efficiency and productivity on the court. It is particularly useful for determining the impact of injuries on a team's performance. For example, if a star player like LeBron James is injured, it is clear that this will have a huge impact on the team's performance. However, when a role player or a good rebounder is injured, it is not always clear how much value they add or subtract from the team. PER can help uncover the value of these players by quantifying their efficiency and effectiveness in their limited minutes off the bench.
While PER is a useful metric, it should not be relied on solely when betting on basketball. This is because basketball is a team sport, and PER is an individual metric. Additionally, PER does not account for defensive specialists, as there are not many reliable defensive stats to input into the formula. Therefore, it is important to consider other factors and metrics such as points per game, rebounds per game, and other advanced NBA metrics like True Shooting Percentage, Box Plus/Minus, and Usage Rate when betting on basketball.
To calculate PER, one can use the simplified formula of calculating total credits from points, assists, rebounds, etc., using assigned values. However, it is important to note that the specific weights and adjustments are proprietary and detailed by Hollinger. Additionally, after computing the unadjusted PER (uPER), an adjustment must be made for the team's pace to normalize a player's ratings and facilitate performance comparisons across different team styles of play.
In conclusion, PER is a valuable tool for basketball betting as it provides a snapshot of a player's efficiency and can help determine the impact of injuries. However, it should be used in conjunction with other metrics and factors to make informed betting decisions.
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PER and defensive specialists
John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a one-number measure of a basketball player's per-minute productivity. It is computed using a detailed, complex formula that adds positive stats such as rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats like missed shots or turnovers. The formula is adjusted to make the league average PER 15.00. The final weights of each stat are obtained by multiplying them by 54.
PER is a useful tool for basketball betting, particularly in determining the value of injuries. It can help identify how efficient and effective role players are in their limited minutes off the bench. However, one criticism of PER is that defensive specialists are often undervalued in the calculation due to a lack of reliable defensive stats. Good defence is challenging to quantify, and defensive specialists may be overlooked despite their significant impact on the game.
For example, during the 2019-20 season, the Los Angeles Clippers' center Ivica Zubac had a higher PER than Paul George. While this doesn't necessarily indicate that Zubac is a superior player, it suggests that his absence could have a more significant impact on the game and betting line than initially assumed.
Despite this limitation, PER remains a valuable metric for comparing players and evaluating their efficiency. It provides a snapshot of players' performance and can be used alongside other statistics like points per game and rebounds per game to gain a comprehensive understanding of a player's contribution to the team.
In conclusion, while PER is a useful tool for evaluating offensive players, it may not fully capture the value of defensive specialists. As such, it should be considered alongside other factors and statistics to gain a more holistic understanding of a player's contribution to the team.
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PER averages
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. It is a one-number measure of a player's per-minute productivity, summing up all a player's positive and negative accomplishments and returning a per-minute rating of their performance. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system.
PER takes into account positive results, including field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative results, including missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. A league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons.
PER has been criticised for undervaluing defensive specialists due to a lack of reliable defensive stats to input into the formula. Good defence is harder to quantify, and two of the defensive statistics PER incorporates—blocks and steals—can produce a distorted picture of a player's value. It is also impossible to calculate PER for NBA seasons prior to 1978 as the league did not keep track of turnovers and other advanced statistics before then.
Despite these criticisms, PER provides a snapshot of where players stand in relation to one another, and can be useful in basketball betting, particularly in determining the value of injuries.
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PER vs EFF
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Efficiency (EFF) are both metrics used to evaluate player performance in basketball. While both metrics consider various factors to assess a player's efficiency, there are some key differences between them.
PER, developed by John Hollinger, is a comprehensive rating that aims to capture all of a player's contributions in a single number. It takes into account both positive and negative aspects of a player's performance, including field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The formula adds positive statistics and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. One of the unique aspects of PER is that it measures a player's per-minute performance, making it independent of playing time. This allows for comparisons between players with different amounts of playing time, such as substitutes and starters. Additionally, PER is adjusted for pace and has a league-average value of 15.00, facilitating comparisons across seasons.
On the other hand, EFF is a total performance statistic that goes beyond just the number of points produced. It considers a range of positive actions such as points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, while also accounting for negative actions like missed field goals, missed free throws, and turnovers. EFF can be calculated per game played (EFF/GP) or normalized to one unit of regulation game time (EFF/48 for the NBA, EFF/40 for NCAA and WNBA). While EFF provides insights into a player's efficiency, it does not consider per-minute performance like PER does.
One advantage of PER is its ability to uncover the value of players who might otherwise be overlooked. By evaluating per-minute performance, PER can highlight the impact of role players who have limited minutes off the bench. This information can be particularly useful for basketball betting, helping to determine the impact of player injuries or absences on the team's performance and betting lines. However, a common criticism of PER is that defensive specialists may be undervalued due to the lack of reliable defensive statistics in the calculation.
While both PER and EFF have their merits, it is important to consider their limitations as well. For instance, comparing players from different generations using PER can be problematic due to rule changes and differences in statistical data collection across eras. Additionally, the complex formula used in PER may be challenging to work with, whereas EFF offers a simpler calculation. Ultimately, both metrics provide valuable insights into player efficiency, but they should be considered alongside other factors to gain a comprehensive understanding of a player's performance and impact on the game.
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