Helena Frye
Possession is a crucial metric in basketball analytics. It is defined as a play that ends in a turnover, a field goal attempt, or a free throw, with offensive rebounds extending possessions. To calculate a team's possessions, field goals, free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds are aggregated. The total number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to account for instances like technical fouls that do not end a possession. Possession calculations are essential for understanding pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. Points per Possession (PPP) is a straightforward statistic, but Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating standardised over 100 possessions provide more nuanced insights.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition | A play that ends in either a turnover, a field goal, or a free throw. |
| Possession for the offensive team | Starts with having or passing the ball and ends with a field goal attempt or once the defensive team gains the ball. |
| Possession ending | When a player shoots the ball, and neither team has possession until it is rebounded by someone. |
| Possession counting | A team possession is counted every time a player of that team: (1) attempts a field goal, (2) misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound, (3) turns the ball over, (4) goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot. |
| Possession estimation | Possessions can be estimated to understand which teams perform well on offense and defense. |
| Points per Possession | Pts / (FGAt + 0.44 x FTAt – OREBt + TO) will equal points per possession. |
| Offensive rebounds | Do not generate a new possession and must be subtracted from the possession count. |
| Free throws | Not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "AND 1"s do not count as possessions. |
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What You'll Learn
Possession is lost when the ball is shot or turned over
Possession is a crucial metric in basketball analytics. It is defined as a play that ends in either a turnover, a field goal attempt, or a free throw, with the exception of offensive rebounds, which extend possessions.
A team is considered to be in possession when a player has the ball and it ends when they lose the ball, either by shooting it or turning it over. A turnover occurs when the ball is passed or taken by the opposing team. This can happen in several ways, including steals, blocked shots, or violations such as stepping out of bounds or committing a foul.
When a player shoots the ball, possession is temporarily in a state of flux. Neither team has possession until the ball is rebounded by a player. If the shot is made, the scoring team regains possession for the next play. If the shot is missed, the team that retrieves the rebound gains possession.
It is important to note that offensive rebounds do not count as new possessions. If a team secures an offensive rebound, the original possession continues. This is because the ability to get and prevent offensive rebounds is a skill that contributes to a team's offensive and defensive abilities. By including offensive rebounds as part of a possession, each team's possessions can be assumed to be roughly equal over the course of a game.
In summary, possession in basketball is a dynamic concept that begins when a player gains control of the ball and ends when they either shoot it or turn it over to the opposing team. Offensive rebounds extend possessions, ensuring that both teams have an equal opportunity to maintain possession and showcase their skills in securing rebounds.
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Offensive rebounds extend possessions
Offensive rebounds are a vital aspect of basketball, providing a second chance for the offensive team to score and extending their possession. When a shot is missed, the rebound allows the defensive team to gain possession and transition to offense. However, if an offensive player retrieves the ball after a missed shot, it is called an offensive rebound, and possession is extended.
The concept of possession in basketball is fundamental to understanding the game's analytics. Possession is typically defined as a play ending in a turnover, field goal, or free throw. However, possessions are extended when offensive rebounds occur. This means that if the offensive team misses a shot, but one of their players grabs the rebound, they retain possession and get another opportunity to score.
The value of offensive rebounds can be measured by the increase in points per possession. By securing offensive rebounds, a team gains additional scoring opportunities and increases their chances of winning. For example, consider two teams, 'Dan' and 'Nick'. Dan has a higher shooting percentage, making 1/3 of his shots but never grabbing an offensive rebound. Nick, on the other hand, has a lower shooting percentage of only 20%. To match Dan's points per possession, Nick's offensive rebounding rate needs to be 50%.
The impact of offensive rebounds on possession is also evident in the calculation of advanced statistics. The Points Per Possession (PPP) stat can be adjusted for pace by using Offensive Rating or Defensive Rating, which standardizes the metric over 100 possessions, the average number of possessions per game in the NBA. By controlling for pace, we can gain a more accurate understanding of a team's performance and make comparisons between teams.
It is worth noting that individual possessions may not always align with team possessions. On an individual level, offensive rebounds are not subtracted from the possession count. However, on a team level, possessions are calculated as field goal attempts (FGA) plus trips to the line, turnovers, and offensive rebounds. The complex interplay between individual and team possessions showcases the dynamic nature of basketball and the importance of understanding the nuances of possession and rebounds.
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Free-throw attempts are multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball analytics. It is defined as a play that ends in either a turnover, a field goal attempt, or a free throw, with the exception that possessions are extended by offensive rebounds. The number of possessions is crucial for understanding other advanced statistics, such as turnover percentage or offensive/defensive ratings.
To calculate the number of possessions, various factors are considered, including field goals, free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds. One important aspect is determining how many possessions are ended by free-throw attempts. This is where the 0.44 multiplier comes into play.
This 0.44 multiplier accounts for various scenarios. A regular free throw typically consumes half a possession, while a three-point foul uses one-third of a possession. The 0.44 coefficient was determined through testing and has been found to be surprisingly accurate, even when applied to high-volume free-throw shooters like James Harden.
By using this multiplier, analysts can refine their calculations of possessions and gain a more accurate understanding of a team's performance. This estimation of possessions is an essential step in deriving other advanced basketball metrics and gaining insights into the game.
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Points per possession is a useful stat
Points per possession (PPP) is a useful stat in basketball analytics. It is a straightforward and self-explanatory metric that helps to understand the efficiency of a team's offence and defence. PPP is calculated by standardising points scored or allowed over 100 possessions, which is approximately the average number of possessions per game in the NBA. This accounts for "pace", which is important as teams that regularly take shots early in the shot clock will have higher overall stats. By adjusting points and turnovers for pace, we can eliminate the problem posed by games with varying possession lengths.
PPP can also be used to calculate a team's net rating (NRTG) by subtracting the defensive rating (DRTG) from the offensive rating (ORTG). This provides a simple way to compare the efficiency of different teams, as NRTG accounts for both points scored and possessions used. Additionally, PPP can help identify the likelihood of a team scoring when they gain possession. The top teams in a league, for example, will almost always score when they have the ball, while lower-ranked teams may fall slightly short of this perfect conversion rate.
However, PPP has its limitations. For instance, the quality of the opponent is not factored into PPP, so a team with a 100% conversion rate may simply be crushing weaker opponents. Additionally, PPP may not be suitable for sports like Ultimate, where there is no universal game length or timed possessions. In such cases, PPP may not provide meaningful insights into a team's performance.
While PPP is a valuable tool for analysing basketball performance, it should be considered alongside other advanced statistics such as turnover percentage, offensive/defensive ratings, and net rating to gain a comprehensive understanding of a team's strengths and weaknesses.
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Pace and possession are linked
Pace and possession are two of the most important metrics in basketball analytics. Possession is defined as a play that ends in either a turnover, a field goal, or a free throw, with the exception of possessions being extended by offensive rebounds. Pace, on the other hand, is the speed at which a team plays and is measured by the number of possessions in a game.
The understanding of possessions is crucial for calculating other advanced statistics such as pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. By adjusting points and turnovers for pace, analysts can account for variations in game length, such as overtime periods, and provide a more accurate representation of a team's performance.
The formula for calculating pace involves dividing the number of possessions by the total minutes of the game and then multiplying by 40. This formula allows for comparisons between games of different durations, including those that go into overtime.
The relationship between pace and possession is evident when examining the impact of possessions on a team's performance. A higher number of possessions can lead to more turnovers, as each additional possession provides an opportunity for a turnover to occur. Therefore, when analyzing a team's total turnovers, it is essential to consider the pace of the game to contextualize the turnover count.
Additionally, the concept of "Points Per Possession" (PPP) is utilized to control for pace when evaluating points scored or allowed. While PPP is a straightforward metric, it can become less interpretable with decimal places. Thus, "Offensive Rating" or "Defensive Rating" is often used instead, standardizing PPP over 100 possessions, which is approximately the average number of possessions per game in the NBA.
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Frequently asked questions
A possession is a game action that starts when a player gets the ball and ends when there is a field goal attempt, a defensive rebound, or a turnover.
On a team level, possessions are calculated as FGA (Field Goal Attempts) + trips to the line + turnovers – offensive rebounds. Trips to the line are usually estimated as 0.44*FTA (Free Throw Attempts).
Possession is an important metric to understand basketball analytics basics. Pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency metrics are all based on possession calculations.
Offensive rebounds must be subtracted from the possession count as they do not generate a new possession. This is done to avoid over-counting possessions.
The total number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts. This accounts for the fact that not all free throws take up a possession, such as technical foul shots and "AND 1"s.
