Ayrton Oneill
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a rating of a basketball player's per-minute productivity. It was devised by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger and attempts to collect all of a player's contributions into a single number. The system uses a detailed formula to rate a player's statistical performance, taking into account positive results, such as field goals, free throws, and assists, and negative results, such as missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The league-average PER is always 15.00, with a great player achieving a rating in the mid to high 20s.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Full Form | Player Efficiency Rating |
| Developed By | John Hollinger |
| Purpose | Collect all of a player's contributions into one number |
| Calculation | uPER = (1 / MP) * [ 3P + (2/3) * AST + (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG + (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG))) - VOP * TOV - VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG) - VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT) + VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB) + VOP * DRB% * ORB + VOP * STL + VOP * DRB% * BLK - PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP)*factor = (2 / 3) - (0.5 * (lg_AST / lg_FG)) / (2 * (lg_FG / lg_FT)***VOP = lg_PTS / (lg_FGA - lg_ORB + lg_TOV + 0.44 * lg_FTA)***DRB% = (lg_TRB - lg_ORB) / lg_TRB |
| League Average | 15 |
| Positive Results | Field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals |
| Negative Results | Missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls |
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What You'll Learn
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
PER is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity, taking into account the pace of play and their playing time. It is calculated using a formula that considers a range of positive and negative contributions made by the player. Positive contributions include field goals, free throws, three-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals. Negative contributions include missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers, and personal fouls. The formula for PER is quite complicated and is outlined in Hollinger's book, "Pro Basketball Forecast". The league average in PER is set to 15 every season, with anything above that considered good and anything below considered below average. A "great" player will usually have a PER in the mid to high 20s, while a poor player will have a PER below 10.
PER is useful for summarising a player's statistical accomplishments in a single number and comparing players across different teams and eras. However, it is not a perfect evaluation of a player's accomplishments, especially for defensive specialists, as it primarily focuses on offensive performance. It also does not account for the quality of a player's teammates or opponents, and may overrate players who put up impressive individual stats but hurt their team's overall performance.
Despite its limitations, PER can be a valuable tool when used alongside other evaluation methods, such as the ""eye test". It is often used in fantasy basketball to identify players who consistently fill the stat sheet and can help evaluate players who may be under the radar or not stand out at first glance.
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PER's formula
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a statistical metric in basketball that evaluates a player's per-minute performance and productivity. It was created by ESPN basketball columnist and former Memphis Grizzlies Vice President of Basketball Operations, John Hollinger.
PER is calculated using a detailed and complex formula that sums up a player's positive and negative accomplishments. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. Positive results include field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, while negative results include missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls.
The formula for PER, also known as uPER, is as follows:
> uPER = (1 / MP) * [ 3P + (2/3) * AST + (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG + (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG))) - VOP * TOV - VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG) - VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT) + VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB) + VOP * DRB% * ORB + VOP * STL + VOP * DRB% * BLK - PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP) ]
- Factor = (2 / 3) - (0.5 (lg_AST / lg_FG)) / (2
- MP: Minutes Played
- 3P: Three-pointers
- AST: Assists
- FG: Field Goals
- FT: Free Throws
- VOP: Value of Possession
- TOV: Turnovers
- DRB%: Defensive Rebound Percentage
- FGA: Field Goal Attempts
- FTA: Free Throw Attempts
- TRB: Total Rebounds
- ORB: Offensive Rebounds
- STL: Steals
- BLK: Blocks
- PF: Personal Fouls
- Lg_FT: League Free Throws
- Lg_PF: League Personal Fouls
- Lg_FTA: League Free Throw Attempts
After calculating the uPER, an adjustment must be made for the team's pace. This takes away the advantage held by players whose teams play a fast-break style, which results in more possessions and offensive opportunities. The league average PER is always set to 15.00, allowing for comparisons of player performance across seasons.
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PER's advantages and disadvantages
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a statistical measure of a basketball player's per-minute productivity. It was devised by John Hollinger and uses a detailed formula to rate a player's statistical performance. PER largely measures offensive performance, taking into account positive results such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals, while also considering negative results like missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The rating is then adjusted to a per-minute basis to allow for comparisons between players with different amounts of playing time.
Advantages of PER
- It provides a single, comprehensive rating that captures a player's overall statistical performance. This simplifies comparisons between players and can help identify players who are particularly efficient.
- By adjusting for pace and playing time, PER attempts to create a level playing field for players on teams with different styles and tempos. This allows for a more accurate evaluation of a player's individual performance, independent of team strategy or playing time.
- PER can help identify players who contribute to winning. The formula weights stats in proportion to how much they help the team win, providing insight into which players have a positive impact on the game.
Disadvantages of PER
- PER has been criticised for its limited assessment of defensive performance. While it includes blocks and steals as defensive statistics, these may not fully capture a player's defensive impact, especially for defensive specialists who excel in other aspects besides blocks and steals.
- It may favour volume over efficiency. A player can inflate their PER by taking a large number of shots, even if they are an inefficient scorer. This could reward players for excessive shooting without considering the quality of their shot selection or the overall team strategy.
- PER does not account for the quality of a player's teammates or opponents. A player's performance can be influenced by the level of competition or the support they receive from their team, which is not factored into the PER calculation.
- The formula's complexity may limit its accessibility and interpretability. Some users may find it challenging to understand all the variables and calculations involved, potentially making it less user-friendly for those without a strong statistical background.
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PER's history
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) system was created by sportswriter John Hollinger in the late 1990s. Hollinger's work was influenced by sabermetric baseball analysts, such as Bill James, who observed that traditional counting statistics in baseball are not reliable indicators of a player's value. Hollinger extended this critique to basketball, noting that a player's opportunities to accumulate statistics depend on the number of minutes played and the pace of the game.
PER is a per-minute rating that strives to measure a player's overall impact on the game by boiling down their contributions to a single metric. This makes it easier to evaluate players and understand their on-court contributions. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. Positive results include field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals, while negative results include missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls.
The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis, allowing for comparisons between substitutes and starters in playing time debates. A league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons. However, it is impossible to calculate PER for NBA seasons prior to 1978, as the league did not keep track of turnovers and other advanced statistics before that year.
While PER is a popular and mainstream NBA advanced stat, there are some criticisms. For example, it may give undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes and undervalue players who have enough diversity in their game to play starter's minutes. Additionally, it may reward inefficient shooting and produce a distorted picture of a player's defensive acumen.
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PER's application in the NBA
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity. It was developed by ESPN columnist John Hollinger to rank NBA players, present and past. The formula sums up all a player's positive and negative accomplishments and returns a per-minute rating of their performance. The positive accomplishments include field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, while the negative ones include missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The league average in PER is set to 15.00 every season, with a "great" player achieving a score in the mid to high 20s.
PER is neither complete nor the most accurate metric for comparison. It largely measures offensive performance, and Hollinger admits that the two defensive statistics it incorporates—blocks and steals—can produce a distorted picture of a player's defensive value. It can also give undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes and undervalue players with a diverse skillset who can play starter's minutes. Additionally, PER has been said to reward inefficient shooting, as a player can inflate their value by taking a large number of shots.
Despite these limitations, PER is widely accepted and used in the NBA. It can be a useful tool to evaluate players who may fall under the radar, complementing the visual impressions of coaches and scouts. It is also used by NBA personnel as support data in evaluating draft prospects, although the nature of the different levels of play in NCAA hoops can lead to some inaccuracies.
In conclusion, while PER has its limitations, it is a widely used metric in the NBA that can provide valuable insights into a player's performance and productivity. However, it should be used in conjunction with other evaluation methods, such as the "eye test", to get a more comprehensive understanding of a player's abilities.
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Frequently asked questions
PER stands for Player Efficiency Rating.
The PER is calculated using a formula that takes into account a player's positive and negative accomplishments, including field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system.
In John Hollinger's system, the average NBA player has a PER of 15. A "great" player will have a PER in the mid to high 20s, while a poor player will have a PER below 10.
PER primarily measures offensive performance and may not accurately reflect a player's defensive impact. It also does not account for the quality of a player's teammates or opponents, and it may favour volume over efficiency. Additionally, it does not capture any non-box score stats that can impact a game.
Some players with high PERs include LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and James Harden.
