Amanda Knapp
When it comes to the NCAA men's basketball tournament, the strength of a team's schedule can have a significant impact on their performance and success. While it is often observed that teams with stronger schedules tend to fare well in the tournament, there is a fine line between a challenging schedule and the toughest schedule. Historical data reveals that teams with the toughest schedules often face early exits during the tournament, indicating that there is such a thing as an overly challenging schedule that may hinder a team's progression. This raises the question: what is the optimal level of schedule difficulty for a team to strike the right balance between preparation and tournament success?
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Tough schedules lead to | Early exits in the tournament |
| Teams with the toughest schedules in the past decade | Kansas and North Carolina |
| Teams with a strength of schedule ranked 6-15 | Won seven of the past 10 national championships |
| Teams with the toughest schedules | Tend to perform well in the NCAA tournament |
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What You'll Learn
Tough schedules and March Madness performance
While it may seem obvious that teams that play the toughest schedules in men's basketball will perform well in the NCAA tournament, this is not always the case. Teams with a strength of schedule ranked 6-15 have won seven of the past 10 national championships. However, when it comes to the teams with the toughest schedules, the trend is less positive. In the past decade, six out of 10 teams with the hardest strength of schedule lost on the opening weekend.
Take Kansas and North Carolina, for example. Both teams reached the Final Four in 2017 and 2018, respectively, with North Carolina winning the championship that season. However, when they played the toughest strength of schedule the following year, neither team made it past the Elite Eight.
The data suggests that while a tough schedule can prepare a team for the challenges of March Madness, there is such a thing as too much toughness. Only five of the 50 teams that finished in the top five strength of schedule rankings since 2010 made it to the Final Four, and only one, the 2014 Kentucky team, played in the championship game.
So, while a strong schedule can certainly test a team's mettle and help them develop the skills needed to succeed in the tournament, it is important to find a balance. A schedule that is too difficult can lead to early exits and disappointment come March Madness time.
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Strength of schedule rankings
For the 2023-24 season, CBSSports.com has highlighted five teams with particularly challenging schedules. Tom Izzo's Spartans, ranked No.4 in the preseason AP Top 25, have a difficult non-conference schedule, including a showdown with Duke in the opening week and a matchup against Baylor in December. The preseason No. 1 Jayhawks also have a tough schedule, playing in the most challenging conference and facing a demanding non-conference slate. Gonzaga is another team that consistently schedules aggressively in the non-conference to make up for any lost opportunities in the WCC.
The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength used to predict future performance. It represents how many points a team is above or below average. Strength of Record (SOR) is another metric that considers how challenging a team's win-loss record is to achieve, accounting for factors like opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, rest, and altitude. These metrics are useful for understanding the strength of a team's schedule and can be applied to rank the toughest schedules in men's basketball.
While I couldn't find specific rankings for the toughest men's basketball schedules for the 2023-24 season, sources suggest that the teams mentioned above are likely contenders for the most challenging schedules. The difficulty of a team's schedule can depend on various factors, including the strength of their conference and their approach to non-conference scheduling.
For the 2024-25 season, sources mention updated NET Rankings and the College Basketball Power Index (BPI) as resources for evaluating the strength of schedules. However, these rankings are not yet available, as the season has not been completed.
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Teams with the toughest schedules
While it may seem obvious that teams that play the toughest schedules in men's basketball will perform well in the NCAA tournament, there is a limit to how difficult a team's schedule should be. Teams with a strength of schedule ranked 6-15 have won seven of the last ten national championships. When we look at the very top of the strength of schedule rankings, the slope gets even steeper. In the past decade, six out of ten teams with the hardest strength of schedule lost on the opening weekend.
For example, Kansas and North Carolina reached the Final Four in 2017 and 2018, respectively, with the latter winning the championship that season. However, when both teams played the toughest strength of schedule in Division I the following year, neither advanced beyond the first weekend.
Similarly, only five out of the fifty teams that finished in the top 5 strength of schedule rankings each year since 2010 made it to the Final Four, and only one, the 2014 Kentucky team, advanced to the championship game.
Therefore, while a tough schedule can help prepare teams for the challenges of March Madness, having the toughest schedule can lead to early exits and disappointment in the tournament.
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How tough schedules affect tournament brackets
The NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament is a single-elimination tournament of 68 teams that compete in seven rounds for the national championship. The tournament is commonly referred to as "March Madness". The selection committee, comprising school and conference administrators, is responsible for selecting, seeding, and bracketing the field for the tournament. The selection process primarily takes place on Selection Sunday and the days leading up to it, after all regular-season and conference tournament games are played.
The selection committee considers a multitude of stats and rankings, including strength of schedule, to determine which teams will compete in the tournament and their placements in the brackets. Strength of Schedule (SoS) measures the difficulty of a team's schedule, based on the win percentage of the team's opponents. While teams that consistently play the strongest schedules tend to perform well in the NCAA tournament, as facing tough opponents year after year is great preparation for March Madness, there is a limit to how tough a team's schedule should be.
Data shows that teams with the toughest schedules often exit the tournament early. Of the teams that finished in the top 5 SoS each year since 2010, only five of the 50 teams made it to the Final Four, and only one, the 2014 Kentucky team, made it to the championship game. Therefore, while a tough schedule can increase a team's chances of making it to the tournament, it does not necessarily translate to success in the tournament.
In addition to strength of schedule, the selection committee considers other factors such as strength of record, predictive computer rankings, how teams perform on the road and at neutral courts, and strength of conference.
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Tough schedules and team performance
While it's true that teams that consistently play strong schedules tend to perform well in the NCAA tournament, there is a limit to how tough the schedule should be. Teams with a strength of schedule ranked 6-15 have won seven of the past 10 national championships. However, when it comes to the toughest schedules, the slope gets steeper. For instance, in 2018 and 2017, Kansas and North Carolina, respectively, had the toughest strength of schedule and reached the Final Four, with North Carolina winning the championship that season. But when both teams played the toughest strength of schedule in Division I the following year, neither reached the Elite Eight.
In the past decade, 60% of the teams with the hardest strength of schedule lost on the opening weekend. Similarly, only five of the 50 teams that finished in the top 5 strength of schedule rankings each year since 2010 made it to the Final Four, and just one, the 2014 Kentucky team, made it to the championship game. This suggests that while a challenging schedule can prepare a team for the tournament, an overly difficult schedule may lead to early exits and a lack of longevity in March Madness.
A possible explanation for this phenomenon could be the increased physical and mental demands placed on teams with the toughest schedules. The rigors of consistently facing tough opponents can lead to accumulated fatigue, increased risk of injuries, and reduced recovery time, impacting a team's performance when it matters most—during the tournament. Additionally, the mental toll of constantly competing against formidable opponents can take a toll, potentially resulting in burnout or a lack of mental edge come tournament time.
Furthermore, teams with the toughest schedules may prioritize regular-season performance over tournament preparation. The focus on navigating a grueling schedule may leave less time for strategic planning, scouting opponents, and fine-tuning tactics specifically for the unique challenges of the tournament. This could result in these teams being tactically or strategically outmaneuvered during the tournament, despite their impressive regular-season performances.
In conclusion, while a tough schedule can be beneficial, an overly challenging schedule may hinder a team's performance and longevity in the NCAA tournament. The key lies in finding the optimal balance between schedule strength and tournament preparation, ensuring that teams are tested enough to be competitive but not overwhelmed to the point of exhaustion or strategic disadvantage. This fine line between toughness and over-challenge is what teams and coaches strive to navigate to achieve success in the highly competitive world of NCAA men's basketball.
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Frequently asked questions
The toughest men's basketball schedules are those with the No. 1 strength of schedule ranking.
In 2018, Kansas had the toughest schedule in Division I, and in 2017, North Carolina did.
While teams that consistently play the strongest schedules tend to perform well in the NCAA tournament, there is a limit to how tough you want your season to be. Teams with the toughest schedules rarely make it past the first weekend of the tournament.
Strength of schedule rankings are based on official NCAA data. The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that predicts future performance based on how many points a team is above or below average. Strength of Record (SOR) is another measure based on how difficult a team's win-loss record is to achieve.
