Amanda Knapp
Possession in basketball is a fundamental concept in the game and is crucial to understanding basketball analytics. It is based on the simple idea of taking turns, where one team has possession of the ball, followed by the other team. The team with the ball, or on offence, aims to score, while the other team, or the defence, tries to prevent them from scoring. The game begins with a jump ball at centre court, after which the team that lost the opening tip is given possession when the next alternating-possession situation occurs. Possession calculations are used to determine offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| How does a team gain possession? | Jump ball at the start of the game, or by alternating possession with the opposing team |
| How does alternating possession work? | Possession arrow, which points to the team that will gain possession when it is in question |
| When does a team lose possession? | When they turn the ball over, miss a shot and don't get the offensive rebound, or commit a violation or foul |
| How is possession calculated? | FGA + 0.44 x FTA – ORB + TO (in the NBA); FGA + 0.475 x FTA – ORB + TO (in college basketball) |
| What is the importance of possession in basketball? | Possession is fundamental to playing the game and to many of the most important advanced metrics |
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What You'll Learn
Jump balls and the possession arrow
A jump ball is a method used to begin or resume play in basketball. It involves two opposing players attempting to gain control of the ball after an official tosses it into the air between them.
The possession arrow, on the other hand, is used in lieu of a jump ball during live play. It was first introduced in college basketball in 1981 when the NCAA adopted alternating possession rules. The arrow indicates which team will be awarded possession in the event of a jump ball situation. The arrow alternates between the two teams, with the team that lost the opening tip-off receiving the first possession after the initial jump ball. If the game goes into overtime, the possession arrow is reset, and the overtime period begins with a jump ball.
The use of the possession arrow in college basketball is a controversial topic. Some argue that it is more fair, as it removes the advantage that taller and more athletic players have during a jump ball. Others argue that jump balls are a vital part of the sport and that the possession arrow takes away from the excitement and competitiveness of the game.
The NBA, WNBA, and Euroleague Basketball have chosen to continue using jump balls to settle possession disputes, while other leagues have adopted the possession arrow rule. In the NBA, jump balls are tolerated and expected, with players commonly stealing the toss by touching the ball before it reaches its peak.
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Alternating-possession situations
The alternating-possession rule in basketball is used to determine which team gets the ball after a tie-up or jump ball situation. This rule ensures that both teams have equal opportunities to gain possession of the ball, increasing the fairness of the game. It also helps to keep the game moving and prevents one team from having the ball for too long.
In a typical game, a jump ball occurs when two or more players from opposing teams have their hands on the ball simultaneously. Instead of having a jump ball every time there's a tie-up, the possession arrow is used. This means that whichever team didn't have the ball during the last tie-up will get it the next time a similar situation arises. The possession arrow is controlled by the officials and is typically used during jump ball situations, not during other types of turnovers.
For instance, let's say Team 1 and Team 2 are playing. Every game starts with a jump ball at center court. The possession arrow remains off until one team gains possession of the ball after the tip-off. Suppose Team 1 gains possession first. In that case, the arrow will point to the other team, and they will be given the ball when the next alternating-possession situation occurs. Team 2 then successfully inbounds the ball, and the arrow is reversed to point back to Team 1. The arrow will also be reversed if any player touches and causes the ball to go out of bounds or if the thrown-in team commits a throw-in violation.
If the game goes into overtime, the possession arrow is reset, and the same format as the start of the game is followed, beginning with a jump ball. If additional overtime periods are required, the arrow will be reset again after the initial jump ball.
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Possession calculations
Possession in basketball is a fundamental concept in the game and is crucial for understanding and analysing the sport. It is based on the simple idea of teams taking turns, with one team having possession of the ball and the other team trying to defend against them. The team with possession can dribble, pass, or shoot the ball, and the most important event during their turn is for them to score. The more successful a team is when they have possession, the more likely they are to win the game.
There are various ways to calculate possession in basketball, with different equations used for different leagues and purposes. The most common formula for calculating possession is:
> poss = FGA + 0.475 x FTA - ORB + TO
In this formula, FGA refers to field goal attempts, FTA refers to free-throw attempts, ORB refers to offensive rebounds, and TO refers to turnovers. The value 0.475 is the consensus for college basketball, while 0.44 is typically used in the NBA. This adjustment is made because not all free throws take up a possession—technical foul shots and "AND 1"s, for example, are not included. Additionally, there might be multiple free throws during a single possession. The 0.44 multiplier accounts for this, as research shows that about 44% of free throws take up possessions.
Another formula for possession is:
> FGA + 0.44*FTA + TO
This formula also includes a turnover component but does not account for offensive rebounds. It is important to note that these formulas provide estimates of possession and may not capture all the nuances of the game.
In college basketball, the use of the possession arrow is another notable aspect of possession calculations. Unlike the NBA, which uses a jump ball to determine possession, college basketball employs the possession arrow to speed up the game and prevent injuries or mismatches during jump balls. The possession arrow is used after the opening tip-off and throughout the game whenever possession is uncertain. It points to the team that will gain possession the next time there is a question of possession and then flips after possession is established. This system ensures that teams fairly alternate possession.
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Plus/minus and player quality
Possession is a key metric in basketball analytics. In college basketball, a game begins with a jump ball at centre court, with the possession arrow coming into play during alternating-possession situations, such as a held ball, a free-throw violation, or a technical foul.
Now, onto the main topic of discussion: Plus/Minus and Player Quality.
Plus-minus (PM) is a widely used metric in modern basketball to measure a player's impact on the court. It tracks the net changes in the team's score when a specific player is on or off the court. PM helps evaluate a player's overall contribution, including their scoring, defence, and other "intangibles" that traditional box score metrics like points, rebounds, and assists may miss.
PM is calculated using a simple formula:
> NBA Plus-Minus for Any Player = (Team Points Scored While That Player is On The Court) – (Team Points Allowed While That Player is On The Court)
PM has become an essential tool for fans, coaches, and front offices. Coaches use PM to optimise lineup combinations and rotation patterns, identifying players who consistently contribute to winning basketball without posting impressive traditional statistics. Front offices leverage PM data for draft decisions and free-agent acquisitions.
PM has its limitations, though. It is heavily influenced by the quality of other players on the court, and a player's PM score can vary significantly from game to game. As a result, PM is often used in conjunction with other advanced metrics like Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) to gain a more comprehensive understanding of a player's impact.
BPM, for instance, uses advanced box score metrics like rebounds per rebounding opportunity and nonlinear interaction terms between usage, rebounds, and assists. RAPM, on the other hand, uses team quality and minutes per game to eliminate the need for aging adjustments and address the issue of low-minutes players.
In conclusion, while PM is a valuable tool in basketball analytics, it should be complemented with other metrics and contextual game understanding to fully capture a player's quality and impact on the court.
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Possession efficiency
Possession is a fundamental metric in basketball analytics. It is used as a basis for calculating pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. The general rule is that a team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. This possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or when there is a field goal attempt.
Offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency are metrics that are calculated based on possession counts. These counts are adjusted to 100 to gain meaningful dimensions in basketball metrics. A team possession is counted every time a player of that team: attempts a field goal, misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound, turns the ball over, or goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot.
The pace at which a team plays is also an important factor in possession efficiency. For example, a team that allows more points per game may actually be better defensively than another team when the number of possessions is considered. This is because the former team plays at a faster pace, and therefore has more possessions per game.
There are also specific rules regarding possession in college basketball, which uses a possession arrow to indicate which team should be given the ball in an alternating-possession situation. This includes situations such as a held ball, a free-throw violation, or a technical foul. The possession arrow is reset at the start of overtime, which, like the beginning of the game, starts with a jump ball.
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Frequently asked questions
A basketball game starts with a jump ball at the centre of the court.
A jump ball is when a referee signals for a jump ball by putting both their thumbs up. This usually happens when there is a question of possession.
The possession arrow is used in college basketball to determine which team gets the ball when there is a jump ball. The arrow points to the team that will gain possession of the basketball.
The possession arrow is turned on and points in the direction of the team that lost the opening tip. That team will be given the ball when the next alternating-possession situation happens.
