Andrew Pace
The NCAA College Basketball Strength of Schedule (SOS) Rankings is a system that ranks basketball teams based on the difficulty of their schedules. It takes into account various factors, including the quality of opponents, the location of games, and the travel distance between games. The SOS Rankings are used to evaluate the accomplishments of a team based on their win-loss record and predict future performance. The rankings are often updated to reflect the current state of the season and the teams' performance.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| What is it? | A ranking of the strength of schedules for NCAA basketball teams |
| Ranking Basis | Objective data, including game results, locations, and quantitative measures of opponent strength |
| Ranking Considerations | Opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest, and altitude |
| Ranking Impact | One new game result can change the ratings of many teams |
| Use | The selection committee for the 68-team NCAA Tournament field heavily uses the rankings |
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What You'll Learn
Non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS)
The NCAA College Basketball rankings are based on a variety of metrics, with the NET rankings being the most important. The NET strength of schedule (SOS) has been referenced by the committee chair since it was introduced in 2018. The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is another metric used to predict team performance. It represents how many points a team is above or below average.
The Non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) is a critical component of the NCAA basketball rankings. It evaluates the strength of a team's schedule by considering the quality of their opponents outside of their regular conference games. The NC SOS ranking takes into account the strength of the opponents and the difficulty of the venues where the games are played. It provides an understanding of how challenging a team's non-conference schedule is.
A strong NC SOS ranking indicates that a team has faced formidable opponents and has been tested outside of their regular conference play. This can be an advantage when it comes to tournament selection and seeding. Teams with higher NC SOS rankings are often viewed more favourably by selection committees as they have demonstrated their ability to compete against a diverse range of opponents.
NC SOS rankings can vary significantly from year to year, as they are influenced by the scheduling decisions of each team. Factors such as the willingness to travel, availability of suitable opponents, and the desire for competitive or easier matchups can impact the strength of a team's non-conference schedule.
While a strong NC SOS ranking can enhance a team's reputation and tournament prospects, it is not the sole factor in determining a team's success. Other factors, such as win-loss records, in-conference performance, and overall consistency, also play crucial roles in the NCAA basketball rankings. Therefore, finding a balance between a challenging non-conference schedule and maintaining a high win percentage is essential for teams aiming for a favourable ranking.
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BPI and SOR metrics
The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a predictive rating system for college basketball teams. It measures a team's strength and projects its performance going forward. BPI is a power rating that can be used to determine how much better one team is than another. It produces a team's percentage chance of winning any game and can also project a team's margin of victory. This is done by adding in pace and efficiency components.
BPI's Strength of Schedule (SOS) rankings reflect the toughness of a team's schedule. Each team's schedule is run from the perspective of a backend Top 25 team. The teams with the toughest schedules will have the lowest expected winning percentage from the perspective of that team. For instance, if a borderline top-25 team played every single Division I team's full schedule, it would be expected to do the worst against Virginia's slate of games, making Virginia the team with the toughest schedule.
ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) takes strength of schedule a step further by accounting for how a team actually performed against its schedule. SOR is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's win-loss record is to achieve. It reflects the chance a typical 25th-ranked team would have of achieving a team's record or better, given the schedule on a 0-100 scale, where 100 is best.
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Opponent strength
Game predictions consider various factors, including opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, rest days, and even altitude. By simulating the season 10,000 times with these factors, analysts can make informed predictions and rankings.
In the context of the NCAA Tournament, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is used by the NCAA Selection Committee to assess teams. This evaluation includes considering the strength of each team's schedule, known as Non-Conference Strength of Schedule (Nc SOS) or simply Strength of Schedule (SOS).
The SOS rankings for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, for instance, would take into account the difficulty of each team's schedule. A Quad 1 ranking under NET would include home games against top-30 teams, neutral games against top-50 teams, and road games versus top-75 teams. A Quad 2 ranking involves similar considerations but for teams ranked between 31 and 75.
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NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings
The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings are a system used in college basketball to rank teams based on their performance and strength. The rankings were introduced in 2018 to replace the RPI system, which was previously used as the primary evaluation tool for college basketball teams. The NET rankings are designed to provide a more accurate assessment of a team's strength and worthiness to compete in the NCAA tournament.
One of the key features of the NET rankings is that they take into account a variety of factors beyond just wins and losses. These factors include strength of schedule, opponent strength, site of each game, pace of play, travel distance, day's rest, and altitude. By considering these additional factors, the NET rankings aim to provide a more nuanced evaluation of a team's performance.
The NET rankings are updated daily and are available on the official NCAA website. They serve as the primary sorting tool for Division I men's basketball teams, playing a crucial role in establishing a team's reputation and seeding in the tournament. The rankings are based on statistical data and are designed to be a more accurate predictor of a team's performance than the RPI system.
The NCAA has made changes to the NET rankings since their introduction to increase their accuracy and simplicity. In May 2020, the NCAA announced the reduction of the ranking system from five components to two: the Team Value Index (TVI) and an adjusted net efficiency rating. The TVI rewards teams for defeating quality opponents, especially away from home, while the adjusted net efficiency rating takes into account the strength of opponents and the location of the games played.
Overall, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings provide a comprehensive evaluation of college basketball teams, helping to determine their strength, performance, and worthiness to compete in the NCAA tournament. By considering a range of factors beyond just wins and losses, the NET rankings offer a more nuanced assessment of a team's capabilities.
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RPI rankings
The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) is a sports rating system used to rank NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, hockey, soccer, lacrosse, and volleyball teams. The RPI was previously used by the NCAA to select and seed teams for the Division I men's and women's basketball tournaments. However, in 2018, the NCAA announced that it would replace the RPI with the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) for this selection process.
The RPI is calculated using a team's winning percentage (WP), opponents' winning percentage (OWP), and opponents' opponents' winning percentage (OOWP). The formula for calculating the RPI is:
RPI = (WP x 0.25) + (OWP x 0.5) + (OOWP x 0.25)
In this formula, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation, with two-thirds being the opponents' winning percentage and one-third being the opponents' opponents' winning percentage. The RPI lacks theoretical justification from a statistical standpoint, and other ranking systems that consider additional factors, like the margin of victory, have been shown to be better predictors of future game outcomes.
Despite the NCAA's shift to the NET system, the RPI still holds some relevance. The selection committee reportedly continues to use a Strength of Schedule ranking derived from the RPI on team sheets during the selection process. Additionally, the RPI can help mitigate the manipulation of scores by teams or individuals in the context of gambling, as it does not consider the margin of victory.
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Frequently asked questions
SOS stands for Strength of Schedule.
The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that predicts performance. It represents how many points a team is above or below average. Strength of Record (SOR) is a similar measure based on how difficult a team's win-loss record is to achieve.
Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest, and altitude.
Strength of Schedule rankings can be calculated for the season, or for a smaller number of games, such as the last 5 or 10 games. They can also be calculated for in-conference or non-conference games.
