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Point spread betting is a popular wager type in basketball, particularly in the NBA. It involves choosing a team to win or lose by a specific margin set by the sportsbook. The point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams, represented as both a negative and positive number. For example, if the spread is Raptors -8.5, it is expected that the Raptors will win by 9 points. If their opponents lose by less than 9 points, they would 'cover' the spread. Point spreads can be bet on for different parts of a game, such as individual quarters and halves, and can also be bet on live during the game.
Characteristics and Values of Point Spread in Basketball
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition | The point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams. |
| Purpose | To level the playing field in any game, no matter the mismatch. |
| Representation | Both a negative and positive number; if the spread is 3 points, it will be represented as -3 and +3. |
| Favourite | The favourite is indicated by the negative value (-) in front of the number. |
| Underdog | The underdog has a positive value (+). |
| Juice | Standard "juice" on a point spread is -110. |
| Home Court Advantage | Home teams are often favoured with a few points to account for this advantage. |
| Timing | NBA odds are usually posted around 24 hours before tip-off but can be as late as the morning of the game. |
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What You'll Learn
How point spreads work in basketball betting
Point spread betting is a popular way to wager on basketball games, especially in the NBA. It is a way to level the playing field in any game, no matter the mismatch.
The point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams, set by an oddsmaker. It is represented as both a negative and positive number; if the spread is 3 points, you'll see that as both -3 and +3. A negative value indicates the favourite, and a positive value indicates the underdog. If you bet on the favourite, you are betting that they will win by a certain margin. If you bet on the underdog, you are betting that they will lose by fewer points than that margin, or win the game.
For example, if the spread is Raptors -8.5, it is expected that the Raptors will win by 9 points. If their opponents lose by less than 9 points, they would 'cover' the spread. So, if the final score was 102-98 to the Raptors, and you had bet on the other team at +8.5, the score becomes 102-106.5, and your team wins.
In the case of a push, where the final score margin is exactly the same as the spread, bets are usually refunded. To avoid this, sportsbooks may add 'the hook' (0.5) to the spread. So, if the spread is 3.5, the favourite has to win by more than 3.5 points (or 4 or more points).
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The difference between positive and negative point spreads
Point spreads are a popular way to wager when it comes to betting on basketball. In its simplest form, the point spread levels the playing field in any game, regardless of a mismatch between the two teams. The point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams and is represented as both a negative and positive number. For example, if the spread is 3 points, you will see that as both -3 and +3.
The negative value (-) indicates the point spread favourite, and that team must win the game by more than that number for bettors to win their wager. The favourite will be given a point deficit by the bookmaker. The underdog will be given points in their favour. For example, if the New York Knicks are the favourite at -2.5 against the spread, they would need to win by at least three points to cover the spread.
The underdog has a positive value (+) in front of its point spread, and that team can either win outright or lose by less than that spread to win the bet. So, if the Boston Celtics are the point spread underdog at +2.5, they can win the game or lose by two points or fewer for the bettor to win their bet.
When the vig is a positive number, the bettor stands to profit more from the same wager. A plus-number is what a $100 bet makes you in profit if that bet wins. For example, +110 would mean you bet $100 to win $110 and get your original bet back.
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How to find the best number
The point spread in basketball betting is the number of points made by an oddsmaker that separates the two teams in a given matchup to handicap a game. It is the expected final score difference between two teams and is represented as both a negative and positive number. For example, if the spread is 3 points, you'll see that as both -3 and +3. If you bet on the favourite with this spread, your team will need to win by more than the spread to cash your bet. Conversely, if you bet on the underdog, you're betting that the team will lose by fewer points than the spread or win the game outright.
When it comes to finding the best number, it's important to consider the following factors:
- Shop around: Not all books are the same, so it's worth shopping around and using an odds comparison tool to find the best price for your bet.
- Timing: NBA odds are usually posted around 24 hours before tip-off, and the point spread lines see the most movement shortly after sportsbooks post them. Therefore, it's a good strategy to bet early before the numbers settle.
- Team strength: Teams with strong recent performances and talented rosters are more likely to be favoured with a larger point spread. Weaker teams might receive fewer points.
- Home-court advantage: Playing at home can provide a significant advantage in basketball, and this is reflected in the point spread. Home teams are often given a few extra points to account for this advantage.
- Current form: While oddsmakers are usually well-informed about injuries and current form, it's still worth checking how a team has been performing recently. Look at their shooting percentage over a week or so to gauge whether they're on a hot or cold streak.
- Moneyline: There is a clear correlation between the moneyline and the spread. A heavy moneyline favourite will usually have a significant point spread.
- Balancing the numbers and your observations: While it's important to consider the numbers, don't forget to also trust your own observations of the teams and players. Find a balance between the two when placing your bets.
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The correlation between the moneyline and the spread
Point spreads in basketball betting are used to handicap a game, with oddsmakers setting a number of points that separates the two teams in a given matchup. The point spread is the expected final score difference between the two teams and is represented as both a negative and positive number. For example, if the spread is 3 points, this is shown as -3 and +3. The negative number indicates the favourite to win, and the positive number indicates the underdog.
A moneyline bet is the most basic wager in sports betting. It is a bet on which team will win a game, with no point spread or other conditions. If you place a bet on the moneyline, that means you think the team you bet on will win the game, and if they win, you win, no matter the score.
There is a clear correlation between the moneyline and the point spread. The more a team is favoured, the more negative their moneyline. For example, if Alabama is favoured on the moneyline at -10000 against Duke, they will likely be favoured by a large margin on the point spread. In one game, Alabama was favoured on the moneyline at -10000 against Duke and was favoured by 34 points on the point spread.
The correlation between the moneyline and the point spread can be used to find value in bets. For example, if the point spread is -7 and the moneyline on the same team is only -300, the risk/reward of the moneyline bet may be more appealing. Additionally, betting on underdogs on the moneyline can result in larger payouts than standard point spread bets. For example, in the 2021 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, Oral Roberts was a +900 underdog on the moneyline against Ohio State. Anyone who bet on Oral Roberts to win outright would have won nine times their bet.
In summary, while the point spread requires the team you bet on to win by a specified margin, the moneyline does not. The point spread is represented by both a negative and positive number, indicating the favourite and underdog, respectively. The moneyline is indicated by a negative number for the favourite and reflects the likelihood of that team winning outright. The correlation between the two types of bets is true across all sports but is particularly applicable in higher-scoring sports like basketball.
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How to bet on the underdog
Point Spread in Basketball
> The point spread in basketball means the number of points made by an oddsmaker that separates the two teams in a given matchup to handicap a game.
In simple terms, the point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams. It is represented as both a negative and positive number. For example, if the spread is 3 points, it will be represented as -3 and +3.
If Team A is a 3-point favourite over Team B, Team A has to win by more than 3 points to win the bet, or "cover". On the other hand, Team B can win the game outright or lose by one or two points (but not more than that) and they "cover". If the game ends with a 3-point difference, it is a push, and you get your money back.
Betting on the underdog can be profitable, but it has to be done in the correct situation. The underdog is the side in a bet that is considered less likely to win. The sportsbook thinks they are less likely to win, so they offer bigger and more attractive payouts for betting on them. This means that if you bet on them and win, you make much more money than if you bet on the favourite.
- Diversify your bets: While wagering on underdogs can be profitable, it is important to have a blend of favourite and underdog wagers to create a healthy, well-rounded investment portfolio.
- Timing is key: Teams are still finding their rhythm early in the season, and upsets are more likely. Similarly, late in the season, when top teams rest key players ahead of the playoffs, underdogs can often outperform expectations.
- Look beyond win-loss records: A team on a losing streak is not necessarily a poor choice for a wager. Sometimes, a string of close losses against top-tier teams can signal a potential upset.
- Use advanced analytics: Metrics like player efficiency ratings and on/off-court impact can reveal hidden strengths in underdogs, like a robust bench unit or a star player whose influence is understated.
- Explore alternate betting markets: Other betting markets like player performance, points total, and quarter-by-quarter betting often present opportunities where underdogs can have the upper hand.
- Find a good underdog bet: Look for small underdog teams with an excellent starting pitcher or a strong bullpen. Some teams struggle with left-handed pitching, so look at team stats to see how they fare against left-handed pitchers.
- Understand the value: A good underdog bet should give a good profit even when you stake low. Underdog odds come with a plus (+) sign, while favourites have a minus (-) sign.
- Do your research: Understand the game's context and consider long-term trends. Conduct a thorough analysis of factors like team morale, injury updates, rest periods, and past performance against the spread.
- Manage your risk: Implement a disciplined staking plan and only wager what you are prepared to lose. Some recommend betting a fixed percentage of your bankroll.
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Frequently asked questions
Point spread betting is a wager on whether a team will win or lose by a specific margin set by the sportsbook.
In basketball, point spread betting is the most popular way to wager. The point spread is the number of points made by an oddsmaker that separates the two teams in a given matchup to handicap a game.
The point spread favourite is indicated by a negative value in front of the number, while the underdog has a positive value. For example, if the spread is Raptors -8.5, it is expected that the Raptors will win by 9 points.
A push occurs when the final result falls on the exact number of the point spread. In this case, bets are refunded.
Juice is the amount you need to wager on each team to win $100. A minus number is what you have to risk to win $100, plus your original bet back. A plus number is what a $100 bet makes you in profit if that bet wins.
