Andrew Pace
Possession is a fundamental aspect of basketball that significantly impacts the flow and outcome of the game. It refers to when a team or player has control over the ball, with the ability to dribble, pass, or shoot. Possessions are crucial in basketball analytics, as they serve as the foundation for calculating various metrics such as pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. The concept of possession also introduces elements like the possession arrow, which is used in college basketball to determine possession after a jump ball or alternating-possession situation. Understanding the intricacies of possession in basketball provides insight into the strategic and statistical nature of the sport.
Characteristics and Values of Possession in Basketball
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition | A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. |
| Calculation | Possession is calculated when a player of a team: (1) attempts a field goal, (2) misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound, (3) turns the ball over, or (4) goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot. |
| Pace | The pace of a game can be increased by overtime games, a higher share of transition opportunities, or shorter possession lengths. |
| Advanced Statistics | Possession allows for the calculation of advanced statistics such as turnover percentage, offensive/defensive ratings, and net rating (NRTG). |
| Possession Arrow | The possession arrow is a rule in college basketball that determines the next team to get the ball after a jump ball situation. It points to the team that lost the initial tip-off. |
| Free Throws | Not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "AND 1″s do not count as possessions, while there might be multiple free throws on one possession. |
| Rebounds | Offensive rebounds extend possessions. Team rebounds that result in dead-ball possessions need to be accounted for in possession calculations. |
| Clock Stoppages | Possession is unaffected by clock stoppages such as timeouts or non-shooting fouls. |
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Possession arrow
The possession arrow is a rule in basketball that differentiates college basketball from professional basketball. It is officially known as the alternating-possession procedure and is defined in the NCAA rulebook as "a method of putting the ball in play with a throw-in rather than a jump ball." This rule comes into play during an alternating-possession situation, which can include a held ball, a free-throw violation, or a technical foul. The possession arrow is used to determine which team will get the ball when there is an alternating-possession situation.
The possession arrow is located on the scorekeeper's table and is used to indicate which team will get the next possession of the ball. The arrow points in the direction of the team that is supposed to have possession. During the start of the game, the arrow points to the team that lost the opening tip. For example, if Team A wins the opening tip but then turns the ball over, the arrow would point to Team B, indicating that Team B would get the next possession.
The possession arrow rule was adopted by league executives because they believed that referees were not able to consistently ensure fair tosses during jump ball situations. The decision has been controversial, with some advocates arguing that it is more fair, while opponents argue that jump balls are a vital part of the sport. The FIBA, with the recommendation of NCAA Men's Supervisor of Officials Hank Nichols, adopted the alternating possession rule in 2003, with a major difference. In overtime periods, play begins with the arrow, while in other organizations, another jump ball is conducted.
If a game goes into overtime, the possession arrow is reset, and since overtime begins with a jump ball, the same format is followed as at the start of the game. If additional overtime periods are needed, the arrow will also be reset after the initial jump ball.
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Turnovers
In basketball, a turnover occurs when a player loses possession of the ball to the opposing team before a shot is attempted. Turnovers can significantly impact the momentum of a game and the morale of the team. Teams with more turnovers than their opponents may have a higher number of possessions, so it is important to control for pace when looking at a team's total turnovers.
There are many actions that can result in a turnover, including:
- Ball stolen by the opposing team
- Throwing a bad pass
- Throwing the ball out of bounds
- Stepping out of bounds
- Committing a double dribble
- Palming or travelling violation
- Committing a backcourt violation
- Shot clock violation
- Three-second violation
- Five-second violation
- Offensive foul (charge or illegal screen)
Some notable records related to turnovers include:
- Most turnovers in an NBA game: Jason Kidd and John Drew with 14 turnovers
- Most turnovers in an NBA playoff game: James Harden with 13 turnovers
- Most career turnovers in the NBA: LeBron James with 4,966 regular season and 1,015 playoff turnovers
- Most turnovers by a WNBA team in one game: 33
- Most turnovers by a WNBA player per season: Ticha Penicheiro with 135 turnovers in 1999
- Most career turnovers by a WNBA player: Diana Taurasi with 1,520
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Offensive rebounds
In basketball, an offensive rebound is when the offensive side recovers the ball after a missed field goal or free throw, allowing them to retain possession. This is in contrast to a defensive rebound, where the defending team gains possession. Most rebounds are defensive as they are generally in a better position to recover missed shots, being closer to the basket.
Players who excel at offensive rebounds, or rebounding in general, tend to be tall and strong, as height provides an advantage in reaching the ball. Centers and power forwards, due to their proximity to the basket, are often the players who make most rebounds. However, shorter players can also be effective rebounders if they possess a keen sense of timing and positioning. For example, point guard Jason Kidd led the New Jersey Nets in rebounding for several years.
Great rebounders are also characterised by their leaping ability, though this is not always necessary. Players like Larry Bird and Moses Malone were exceptional rebounders without being known for their leaping prowess. Bird noted that "most rebounds are taken below the rim. That's where I get mine". Effective rebounding technique involves "boxing out", or positioning oneself between an opponent and the basket, maintaining body contact with the player being guarded.
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Pace of the game
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball analytics. It is the unit of measurement for many advanced statistics, allowing for a standardised comparison of a team's performance by removing the variable of game speed. Pace, in the context of basketball, is a measure of how many possessions a team has in a typical game with a standard length.
Pace is calculated by dividing the number of possessions by the total minutes of the game and then multiplying by 40, allowing for comparisons between games that ended after overtime and those that finished in regulation time. The standard length is typically measured as 48 minutes, which includes overtime periods. This is done because the number of possessions per game can be misleading due to the high number of late possessions in overtime games, where little time is taken off the clock due to fouling and other late-game strategies.
By adjusting points and turnovers for pace, analysts can account for variations in game speed and the number of possessions. For example, a team may average more turnovers than their opponent, but they could also be generating more possessions per game. Pace also depends on the playing style of the opposing team, and it can be influenced by offensive rebounds, defensive ability, and the presence of faster perimeter players.
While pace is a relative value that must be compared to other values, it provides valuable insights into a team's identity and performance. It is used to create advanced team stats and can indicate whether a team favours a faster or slower style of play. Understanding pace is crucial for interpreting advanced basketball statistics and making informed strategic decisions.
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Possession calculations
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball, and understanding it is key to delving into more advanced basketball analytics. Possession calculations are based on specific game events that constitute a change of possession. These events include:
- A player attempting a field goal.
- A missed shot and the offensive team failing to secure the rebound.
- A turnover, which can be a loss of the ball through a mistake or a violation.
- A player going to the line for two or three shots, making the last shot, and the defensive team securing the rebound of a missed last shot.
It's important to note that not all free throws result in a change of possession. Technical foul shots and "and-ones" are examples of free throws that do not result in a change of possession. To account for this, analysts use a 0.44 multiplier when calculating the number of possessions, as research has shown that approximately 44% of free throws result in a change of possession.
Additionally, offensive rebounds do not generate new possessions. If a team secures multiple offensive rebounds after consecutive missed shots, it is still considered one possession. This is accounted for by using a 0.96 multiplier, which considers team offensive rebounds without crediting them as an offensive rebound.
The calculation of possession is crucial for understanding other basketball metrics such as pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. By adjusting the possession count to 100, analysts can calculate per-100-possession metrics, providing a meaningful dimension to basketball analytics. This standardisation allows for comparisons between teams and an understanding of efficiency and performance.
In college basketball, the possession arrow rule is used, which is an alternating-possession procedure. This rule comes into play during specific situations, such as a held ball, a free-throw violation, or a technical foul, ensuring a fair method of putting the ball back into play.
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Frequently asked questions
A possession in basketball is when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt.
Possession can start with a throw-in or a jump ball. In college basketball, the possession arrow indicates which team will get the next jump ball without jumping for the ball.
The pace of a game can be calculated by dividing the total number of turnovers by the total possessions. A higher number of possessions will increase the pace of a game.
