Open Boat Tragedy: What Caused The Sinking?

The sinking of the luxury yacht Bayesian off the coast of Sicily in 2024 is a tragedy that has sparked many questions about what exactly caused the vessel to sink so quickly. While there are several theories, one of the main factors that has been identified is the role of the yacht's upper hatches, which may have been left open, causing the boat to fill with water rapidly. The retraction of the movable keel to just 13 feet and the massive 236-foot mast, which may have acted like a pendulum in the strong winds, are also believed to have contributed to the sinking.

Open portholes and hatches

The 183-foot vessel was carrying 22 people when it sank around 5 a.m. on August 19, 2024. While 15 people were rescued, six people are still missing, including billionaire Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, and a Morgan Stanley bank boss.

An early focus of the official investigation is whether the yacht's crew had closed the access hatches before the storm hit. Sailing Today editor Sam Jefferson believes that open hatches and doors could have contributed to the rapid sinking. He said, "I imagine all the doors were open because it was hot, so there were enough hatches and doors open that it filled with water very quickly and sank like that."

Andrea Ratti, a nautical design professor at Milan Polytechnic University, agreed that a huge amount of water must have entered the boat for it to sink so fast. He suggested that openings like portholes or windows may have been left open. Weather records show temperatures reached around 33°C the day before the sinking, which may have led to occupants wanting airflow while they slept.

However, investigators are also considering other factors, such as the role of the boat's large mast and the retraction of its movable keel.

A large mast

The 236-foot or 246-foot mast of the luxury yacht Bayesian may have played a role in its sinking. The mast may have acted like a pendulum, allowing the boat to rock back and forth. Matthew Schanck, chair of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, said that the large mast may have acted more like a sail during the strong winds.

Karsten Borner, a captain on a nearby boat, told an Italian newspaper that he saw the mast "bend and then snap". However, Schanck stated that if the mast had broken, it would have been reported. Gino Ciriaci, a former shipyard manager and maritime technical inspector, said that once the mast fell, the vessel was more prone to pitching and rolling as it was battered by waves.

The Bayesian's mast has been described as one of the tallest in the world and may have contributed to the rapid sinking of the boat.

A movable keel

The movable keel is an underwater blade designed to provide stability to the vessel by counteracting the forces that cause swaying. It is typically lowered to increase the boat's resistance to swaying and is recommended to be deployed in anticipation of rough weather conditions.

However, in the case of the Bayesian, it is reported that the 30-foot keel was retracted to a much shorter length of 13 feet when the storm hit. This reduction in keel deployment could have negatively impacted the yacht's stability, making it more vulnerable to the strong winds and waves of the waterspout.

Natural experts weigh in on the unusual decision to retract the keel, stating that it would have been uncommon for a crew to do so if they were aware of the impending bad weather. This suggests that the crew may have underestimated the severity of the incoming storm or failed to receive accurate weather forecasts.

The retraction of the movable keel, combined with other factors such as open hatches and the size of the mast, likely contributed to the rapid sinking of the Bayesian. It is important to note that a combination of factors, including the strength of the waterspout and the vulnerability of the yacht's design, all played a part in the tragic incident.

As investigators continue to piece together the events, the role of the movable keel will be a critical aspect of understanding why the Bayesian sank so quickly and what measures could be implemented to enhance maritime safety in the future.

A waterspout

Waterspouts are similar in appearance to tornadoes and cyclones, but there are some distinct features. Unlike tornadoes, waterspouts do not have to be associated with thunderstorms and can occur without them. Waterspouts are also usually short-lived, lasting only a few minutes before dissipating.

Despite their short lifespan, waterspouts can be extremely dangerous and damaging. Winds inside a waterspout can exceed 90 kilometres per hour, which is classified as a damaging wind gust. This amount of wind force can cause significant damage to boats and property.

Waterspouts are common in tropical and subtropical areas, such as Florida, the Great Lakes, the Mediterranean Sea, and off the coast of Australia. Certain conditions are required for their formation, such as the presence of a cool air mass and a warm air mass coming together. While forecasters can predict conditions that might trigger a waterspout, predicting its exact occurrence is challenging due to its localized nature.

In the case of Stephen Crane's experience, which inspired his short story "The Open Boat," a waterspout may have contributed to the sinking of his boat off the coast of Florida in 1897. Crane and the other survivors were stranded at sea for thirty hours, facing crashing waves, circling sharks, and the constant threat of sinking.

Bad weather

The waterspout occurred during a "violent storm" and produced tornado-speed winds that battered the vessel. The boat's upper hatches were reportedly open at the time, which would have caused it to quickly fill with water and sink. Large amounts of water may have also entered the boat through the hatches as it rocked back and forth during the storm.

The large mast of the boat, which was one of the tallest in the world at 246 feet, may have contributed to its instability and sinking. The mast likely acted as a sail during the strong winds, and it eventually snapped, causing the boat to tilt and take on more water.

In addition, the movable keel of the boat, which is meant to keep the boat upright and prevent swaying, was retracted to about 13 feet when the storm hit. Retracting the keel at this time is unusual and may have further contributed to the boat's instability.

The combination of bad weather conditions, open hatches, a large mast, and a retracted keel ultimately led to the rapid sinking of the Bayesian yacht.

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