Andrew Pace
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball, with the team in possession aiming to score while the defensive team tries to prevent them. Possessions are defined by the NBA as periods when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball, ending when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. While a field goal attempt typically indicates the end of a possession, technical free-throws are not considered possessions. The number of possessions is a key factor in basketball analytics, with metrics like pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency all based on possession calculations.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition | Possession is a game action that starts when a player gets the ball and ends when there is a field goal attempt or the defensive team gains the ball. |
| Importance | Possession is one of the most fundamental concepts in basketball and is critical to understanding basketball analytics. |
| Calculation | Possession is calculated by dividing the number of possessions by the actual minutes of the game and multiplying by 40 or 48 (the canonical number of minutes in a game). |
| Pace | Pace is the number of possessions spread over 40 or 48 minutes. |
| Points | Points = (pts/possession) * (possessions). |
| Efficiency | Offensive and defensive efficiency are calculated by multiplying the number of possessions by 100. |
| Turnovers | Turnover percentage is calculated by dividing the total number of turnovers by the total number of possessions. |
| Rebounds | Offensive rebounds do not generate a new possession. |
| Free Throws | Not all free throws end a possession. The number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts. |
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What You'll Learn
Possession changes
A field goal attempt by a player results in a change of possession, with the exception of technical free-throws, which do not count as possessions. A field goal attempt is when a player attempts to score by shooting the ball into the basket. If the shot is successful, the scoring team remains in possession. However, if the shot misses and the defensive team gains possession of the rebound, there is a change of possession.
Rebounds can also lead to possession changes. An offensive rebound, where the offensive team retrieves their own missed shot, allows them to retain possession. On the other hand, a defensive rebound, where the defensive team gains possession of a missed shot, results in a change of possession.
Turnovers are another way possession changes occur. A turnover is when the team with the ball loses possession to the other team due to a mistake or violation. This can include situations such as a player losing control of the ball (also known as a fumble), a player being called for a violation (such as a double dribble or an illegal screen), or the ball going out of bounds off a player on the offensive team.
In certain situations, violations or special circumstances can lead to possession changes. For example, in college basketball, a possession arrow is used to determine possession in alternating-possession situations, such as a held ball, a free-throw violation, or a technical foul. This arrow points towards the basket the team in possession is attacking. Additionally, at the start of a game or overtime, a jump ball is used to determine initial possession, with the arrow pointing towards the team that lost the opening tip.
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Scoring
A team's scoring efficiency is calculated using the formula: Points = (pts/possession) * (possessions). Each team gets the same number of possessions, so to score more points than the opponent, a team must increase their "points per possession". This number is what we call offensive and defensive efficiency.
A possession is defined by the NBA as "Section XVIII-Team Possession". A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. The possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. However, a field goal attempt does not always indicate the end of a possession. For example, if a team secures an offensive rebound after a missed shot, their possession continues. Therefore, to calculate the number of possessions, you subtract offensive rebounds from field goal attempts.
Free throws are a little more complicated. Sometimes players get an "and-1" or a "one-and-one" and only take one free throw before the possession ends. Sometimes a player is fouled on a three-pointer and gets three free throw attempts. To account for this, the total number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts, controlling for one-shot instances such as technical fouls.
When it comes to scoring, it's not just about the number of points but also the efficiency of the team's possessions. A team with a high number of points per possession will be more successful than a team that scores a lot but has a low "points per possession".
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Possession counting
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball and is critical to understanding the game's analytics. Possession counting is a complex task that involves various factors and calculations. Here is a detailed guide to understanding possession counting in basketball:
Definition of Possession:
According to the NBA, a team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession for the offensive team begins when they have or pass the ball, and it ends when there is a field goal attempt or the defensive team gains the ball. It is important to note that a field goal attempt does not always indicate the end of a possession. Possession changes occur when one team yields the ball to the opponent, providing them with an opportunity to hold, dribble, or pass.
Counting Possessions:
Counting possessions in basketball is a nuanced task. While it may seem straightforward, it involves various factors and calculations. Here are some key points to understand possession counting:
- The main idea is that every possession ends with a shot, a free throw attempt, or a turnover. However, not every attempt ends a possession.
- Offensive rebounds extend possessions. If a team secures an offensive rebound after a missed shot, their possession continues.
- Free throws are treated differently. Technical foul shots and "AND 1" situations do not count as possessions. The number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts, as not all free throws result in possessions.
- Possession counting is unaffected by clock stoppages, such as timeouts or non-shooting fouls.
- The concept of "Pace" is important. Pace refers to the number of possessions spread over a specific time frame, usually 40 or 48 minutes. It helps standardize statistics and compare different games and teams.
- Advanced metrics like turnover percentage, offensive/defensive ratings, and points per possession (PPP) are used to gain deeper insights into team performance.
- Possession counting is essential for understanding offensive and defensive efficiency. By comparing points per possession, analysts can determine which team is utilizing their possessions more effectively.
Examples of Possession Counting:
To illustrate possession counting, let's consider some examples:
- Example 1: Team A takes a shot and makes it (2 points in one possession). Their ORTG (Offensive Rating) is 200.
- Example 2: Team B takes five shots, misses four, but gets four offensive rebounds and finally scores. They also have an ORTG of 200 (2 points in one possession) instead of 40 (2 points in five possessions).
- Example 3: Team C secures an offensive rebound after a missed shot. Their possession continues, and it is still considered one possession.
In summary, possession counting in basketball involves understanding the definition of possession, the factors that affect possession changes, and the various calculations and metrics used to analyze team performance. Possession counting is a critical aspect of basketball analytics and provides valuable insights into the game.
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Pace
> Pace = 240/ (Team Minutes) x (Possessions by Team + Possessions by Opponent) / 2
In this formula, "Team Minutes" refers to the total minutes played by all players on the court, which is typically 240 for a standard 48-minute game (5 players x 48 minutes). The Pace Factor provides a standardised metric to compare teams' playing styles and strategies.
A higher Pace value indicates a faster-paced game with more possessions, resulting in increased trips up and down the court and more running. This style often favours younger, more athletic teams with high-powered offences as it can have a psychological impact on their opponents.
For example, during the 2019 NBA season, the Atlanta Hawks had the fastest pace, averaging around 103 possessions per 48 minutes. This meant that they typically played at a faster pace than their opponents. However, it's important to note that dictating the pace does not necessarily guarantee a higher winning percentage, as seen in the same season where the team dictating the pace won only 48.8% of the time.
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Advanced statistics
Possession is the unit of measurement for many advanced basketball statistics. Advanced statistics are calculated by standardising the number of possessions played, purifying them from the game speed. This is because each team has its own pace, which affects the number of possessions in a game.
One of the most common advanced statistics is the calculation of points per possession (PPP). PPP is calculated by dividing the total number of turnovers by the total possessions. This can be interpreted as the percentage of possessions that end in a turnover. PPP can also be used to control for pace when looking at points scored or allowed.
Another advanced statistic is the calculation of offensive and defensive ratings. These are standardised PPP or Opponent PPP over 100 possessions (roughly the average number of possessions per game in the NBA). Net Rating (NRTG) can then be calculated by subtracting Defensive Rating (DRTG) from Offensive Rating (ORTG).
When calculating possessions, it is important to note that not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "and-ones" do not count as possessions, and there might be more than two free throws on one possession. Therefore, the total number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts.
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Frequently asked questions
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball that refers to when a team has control of the ball. It starts when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball and ends when there is a field goal attempt or the defensive team gains possession.
Possessions are important because they are the unit of measurement for many advanced basketball statistics. Pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency metrics are all based on possession calculations.
The number of possessions is calculated using various formulas that consider field goal attempts, free throw attempts, turnovers, and offensive rebounds. A common formula is: Points = (pts/possession) * (possessions).
This is a debated topic. Some sources consider an offensive rebound as a continuation of the same possession, while others treat it as a new possession.
The more successful a team is during their possessions, the more likely they are to win. This is true for both offensive and defensive possessions. The game is about maximising the impact of each possession rather than maximising the number of possessions.
