Andrew Pace
The three-pointer has long been a staple of basketball, with players and teams adopting strategies to make the most of its benefits. However, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in the number of three-pointers attempted in the NBA, leading some to question if it is hurting the game. While younger fans seem to be enjoying the high volume of three-pointers, there is a concern that the game is becoming too formulaic, with teams copying each other's strategies. Additionally, a recent study by Syracuse University has shown that the value of the three-pointer is decreasing, and teams are already adjusting their shot selections to favor two-pointers. So, is the three-pointer hurting basketball, or is it simply a matter of adapting to new strategies and maintaining a balance between the two types of shots?
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Number of 3-pointers in NBA games | Increasing |
| Fan perception | Younger fans are more positive about the style of play and volume of 3s than older ones |
| Impact on the game | 3-pointers are making the game worse |
| Team strategy | Teams are copying each other |
| Average expected value of 3-pointers | Less than 2-pointers since the 2017-18 season |
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What You'll Learn
The 3-point shot's value is decreasing
The 3-point shot has been a hot topic of discussion in the NBA for several years now, with some arguing that its prevalence is hurting the game. While the number of 3-point attempts has indeed been increasing—from 22.2% in 2010-11 to 39.2% in 2020-21—a recent study by Shane Sanders and Justin Ehrlich of Syracuse University shows that the value of the 3-pointer is actually decreasing. This study contradicts the unresearched opinions of many NBA analysts and has important implications for the league and its teams.
The study found that while the number of 3-point shots continues to increase, the average expected value of 3-pointers has been less than that of 2-point shots since the 2017-18 season. This means that, despite the higher point value of 3-pointers, the frequency with which they are made is lower than 2-point shots, resulting in a lower "true point value". This has led to teams starting to alter their shot selection to emphasize more high-percentage 2-point shots.
The implications of this study are significant, as it suggests that teams may be better off focusing on improving their 2-point shooting rather than solely relying on 3-pointers. This could lead to a shift in strategy and player selection, with a greater emphasis on players who are strong shooters from inside the 3-point line. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of considering additional factors beyond just the point value of shots when evaluating offensive strategies.
Despite these findings, it is important to note that the NBA itself does not believe that there is a problem with the current state of the game. In response to concerns about the increasing number of 3-pointers, NBA officials have stated that they are paying attention to the issue and are open to making improvements. However, they believe that the 3-point revolution has been well-received by fans and has not had a negative impact on the game. Younger fans, in particular, have been more positive about the style of play and volume of 3-pointers, indicating that the league may need to adapt to changing preferences and strategies in the future.
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The impact on the game's popularity
The three-pointer has had a significant impact on the popularity of basketball, particularly in the NBA. The three-point shot has led to a revolution in the sport, with teams and players adopting strategies that heavily emphasize these long-distance attempts. This has resulted in a noticeable shift in the style of play, with some arguing that it has made the game more exciting and appealing to fans. Younger fans, in particular, seem to view the increased volume of three-pointers positively, according to the NBA's survey panel. This shift in style has been influenced by players like Steph Curry, who is known for his exceptional three-point shooting abilities and has helped lead the Golden State Warriors to multiple NBA championships.
However, there are concerns that the focus on three-pointers may be hurting the game. Some believe that the excessive reliance on three-pointers has made the offenses of different teams look too similar, with a "cookie-cutter" feel. There is a worry that this could turn away fans who are disillusioned by the lack of variety in playing styles. Additionally, a study by Shane Sanders and Justin Ehrlich from Syracuse University's Falk College of Sport and Human Dynamics found that while the number of three-point shots continues to increase, their average expected value has decreased relative to two-point shots since the 2017-18 season. This suggests that the marginal benefit of taking three-pointers is diminishing, which could impact the strategic decisions of players and coaches.
Despite these concerns, the NBA remains optimistic about the state of the game. NBA commissioner Silver has acknowledged the room for improvement but expressed satisfaction with the current state of the game and the attention being paid to fan feedback. The NBA's head of fan research, Wasch, also provided a positive summation of what the league has learned from fan research, stating that "fans have loved the 3-point revolution." This indicates that while there may be differing opinions among fans, the overall impact of the three-pointer on the popularity of the game has been positive.
In conclusion, the three-pointer has had a significant impact on the popularity of basketball, leading to a revolution in playing style and strategy. While there are concerns about oversaturation and the potential for a negative impact on the variety of playing styles, the overall feedback from fans has been positive. The NBA remains committed to listening to fan input and making adjustments as needed to ensure the game's continued popularity.
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Younger fans are more positive about the style of play
While there is a concern that the three-point shot is becoming detrimental to the game of basketball, younger fans are more positive about the style of play and the volume of three-pointers than older fans. This is according to the NBA's survey panel, which found that younger fans are more accepting of the three-point revolution. The data shows that the number of three-point attempts has been increasing, with the Golden State Warriors, led by three-point specialists Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, winning three of the previous seven NBA titles.
The rise in three-point attempts can be attributed to the strategy of shooting more three-pointers being seen as a "hack" to success. This is supported by the fact that between 2004-05 and 2018-19, the team that attempted the most three-pointers in a game won 52% of the time. However, it is important to note that the difference in positive perception between younger and older fans was not statistically significant, according to Wasch from the NBA.
Despite the concerns, the NBA does not believe that there is a fundamental problem with the game design. The league's commissioner, Silver, expressed optimism about the state of the game and the attention being paid to fan feedback. The NBA's survey panel findings align with Silver's sentiments, indicating that fans have generally loved the three-point revolution. While there may be a perception of teams copying each other's strategies, the NBA is committed to studying fan feedback and making improvements where necessary.
While the three-point shot has been a significant factor in the game, recent studies suggest that the value of the three-pointer is decreasing. This is supported by the findings of Shane Sanders and Justin Ehrlich, who showed that while the number of three-point shots continues to increase, the average expected value of three-pointers has become less than two-pointers since the 2017-18 season. As a result, teams are starting to alter their shot selection to focus more on high-percentage two-point shots.
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Teams are copying each other
While the NBA doesn't think that the three-pointer is an issue, there are concerns that the increase in three-pointers is making teams play in a more similar fashion. During a discussion at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations, Daryl Morey, commented that "we have hit the point where [the 3-pointer is] turning toward making the game worse". He went on to say that "some of the offenses start to look sort of cookie-cutter and teams are copying each other".
Morey's comments are supported by data that shows the number of attempts beyond the arc has increased in each of the previous 10 seasons, from 22.2% in 2010-11 to 39.2% in 2020-21. This shift in strategy has been so significant that it has been dubbed the "three-point revolution". Led by three-point specialists Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, the Golden State Warriors won three out of the previous seven NBA titles, with a fourth expected in 2022.
Despite this, the league's survey panel shows that younger fans are more positive about the style of play and volume of three-pointers than older ones. Additionally, the lowest team in three-point volume in the 2024-25 season, the Denver Nuggets, would have led the NBA as recently as 2013-14. This suggests that while teams may be copying each other in terms of three-pointer strategy, there is still variation in the overall style of play.
While there may be some validity to the claim that teams are copying each other, it is important to note that the three-pointer is a valuable tool for teams. During Morey's tenure with the Houston Rockets, shooting more three-pointers was an effective strategy. Between 2004-05 and 2018-19, the team that attempted the most three-pointers in a game won 52% of the time. As such, while the increase in three-pointers may be leading to more similarity between teams, it is also a reflection of the evolving nature of the sport.
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The NBA doesn't think it's an issue
The NBA doesn't think the three-point play is hurting basketball. While there are more three-pointers being shot in NBA games than ever before, younger fans are more positive about the style of play and volume of three-pointers than older ones. The league's survey panel shows that the difference in opinion between younger and older fans is not statistically significant.
During Daryl Morey's tenure with the Houston Rockets, shooting more three-pointers was an effective strategy. Between 2004-05 and 2018-19, the team that attempted the most three-pointers in a game won 52% of the time. Morey, who is considered one of the godfathers of the three-point revolution, has since expressed concern that the three-pointer is "turning toward making the game worse." However, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has struck a more optimistic tone, stating that he is "happy with the state of the game right now."
The NBA's head of fan research, Wasch, has also expressed a positive view of the three-point revolution, stating that "fans have loved the three-point revolution." While there may be some concerns about offenses starting to look similar across teams, the NBA is paying attention to fan feedback and will continue to study the impact of the three-pointer on the game.
Despite discussions among NBA executives about how basketball analytics have impacted the popularity of the game, the NBA does not currently believe that the three-pointer is hurting the sport. The league is focused on putting out a product that fans will enjoy, and the data suggests that fans are largely positive about the increased volume of three-pointers.
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Frequently asked questions
While the number of 3-pointers in the NBA has been increasing, a study by Shane Sanders and Justin Ehrlich shows that the average expected value of 3-pointers has become less than 2-pointers since the 2017-18 season. This suggests that the value of the 3-pointer is decreasing and that there may be too much 3-point shooting. However, the NBA doesn't seem to think it's an issue, and younger fans are more positive about the volume of 3s.
Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, who is considered one of the godfathers of the 3-pointer revolution, has expressed concern that the heavy reliance on 3-pointers may be "turning toward making the game worse". He suggests that the shot may be too valuable and that it could lead to a cookie-cutter style of play with teams copying each other.
With the rise in 3-pointers, teams are starting to adjust their shot selection. They are now emphasizing more high-percentage 2-point shots, which can still provide the offensive spacing benefits of positioning on the perimeter without relying solely on 3-pointers.
Reducing the volume of 3-pointers could help bring back fans who may have been turned off by the current style of play. It might also encourage more variety in offensive strategies and prevent a cookie-cutter approach where teams are copying each other. However, it's important to note that younger fans tend to be more positive about the higher volume of 3s, so any changes should consider the preferences of different fan demographics.
