Andrew Pace
KenPom is a college basketball ranking system that uses advanced statistics to predict the outcome of games. Created by statistician Ken Pomeroy, the system calculates offensive, defensive, and overall efficiency numbers for all Division I teams. KenPom's rankings are highly influential in the world of college basketball betting and are based on various factors, including shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule. While the system is designed to be purely predictive, it has evolved to focus specifically on basketball, with Pomeroy claiming that his old system could be applied to any sport with a scoring system.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Founder | Ken Pomeroy |
| Purpose | Predicting how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors |
| Ranking criteria | Efficiency, luck, strength of schedule, shooting percentage, margin of victory, offensive and defensive statistics |
| Coverage | All 353 Division I men's basketball programs |
| Use cases | College basketball analysis, betting |
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What You'll Learn
KenPom rankings are purely objective and predictive
KenPom is a college basketball ranking system created by statistician Ken Pomeroy. It ranks all 353 Division I men's basketball programs based on metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo, and pace. The system is designed to be purely predictive, showing how strong a team would be if they played that very night, independent of injuries or emotional factors.
The KenPom rankings are based on a variety of statistics, including shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule. These statistics are used to calculate offensive, defensive, and overall "efficiency" numbers for all teams in Division I. The core of the system is the Pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage, which is based on a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Any time a statistic is ""adjusted" on the KenPom website, it refers to how a team would perform against average competition on a neutral court. For example, a team's offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) is adjusted for the strength of the opposing defences played.
The KenPom system also incorporates a ""luck rating", which measures the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what would be expected from its game-by-game efficiencies. A team with a high luck rating will tend to be rated lower by the system than their record would suggest. Additionally, the strength of a team's schedule is considered, measuring the total efficiency of the opponents that a team has faced.
The KenPom rankings are purely objective, with no subjective elements influencing the rankings. The system strictly measures the efficiency of all Division I teams and helps predict how each team will fare in a game based on advanced statistics when matched against opponents. This predictive nature is further emphasised by the continuous updates made to the KenPom ratings throughout the season, ensuring that the rankings provide a snapshot of a team's current level of play.
While the KenPom rankings are highly influential in the world of college basketball betting, it is important to recognise that they are not without limitations. As acknowledged by Pomeroy himself, the system does not rate teams based on how "good" their season has been. Instead, it focuses on predicting the strength of a team at a given moment in time. Advanced statistics, in general, may not always tell the entire story of a game, as there are often intangible factors that can influence the outcome.
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It measures efficiency and winning percentage
KenPom is a ranking system for basketball teams that is based purely on efficiency. It measures the offensive and defensive efficiency of a team, or how many points a team would score or concede per 100 possessions, against an average Division I opponent. This is adjusted for the strength of the opposing defences played, with more weighting given to recent games.
The overall ranking of teams is determined by the Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM). This is the offensive efficiency minus the defensive efficiency, which determines how many points a team would be expected to beat an average Division I team by. The higher the AdjEM, the better.
KenPom also uses a Pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage. This is based on the team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. The Pythagorean winning percentage is calibrated to the likelihood of winning, while the efficiencies are based purely on scoring per possession with no consideration of winning or losing.
Luck rating (Luck) is another measure used by KenPom. This is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record. Essentially, this measures whether a team involved in a lot of close games has won or lost more games than they would be expected to.
KenPom's statistical model focuses on who a team plays and how efficiently they play them, rather than who wins. This means that a team with a losing record may still have a high KenPom ranking if they have played a difficult schedule and played efficiently.
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It calculates offensive and defensive statistics
KenPom is a basketball analytics system developed by Ken Pomeroy. It calculates offensive and defensive statistics using various metrics, including efficiency, tempo, and style of play.
The system uses a variety of statistical measures to evaluate the performance of basketball teams and players. One key metric is efficiency, which is calculated as points scored or allowed per 100 possessions. This can be further broken down into offensive and defensive efficiency, providing an estimate of how a team or player would perform against average competition.
To calculate offensive efficiency, KenPom considers the points scored per 100 offensive possessions, while defensive efficiency looks at the points allowed per 100 defensive possessions. These metrics can be adjusted to account for the strength of opposing defenses or offences, providing a more nuanced view of a team's performance.
Another important aspect of the KenPom system is the concept of Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM). This metric takes into account both offensive and defensive efficiency, calculating the difference between the two. A positive AdjEM indicates that a team is expected to outperform the average Division I program, while a negative AdjEM suggests the opposite.
In addition to efficiency, KenPom also considers tempo and playing style. The system calculates adjusted tempo (AdjT), which estimates the tempo or possessions per 40 minutes that a team would have against an average Division I opponent. This allows for comparisons between teams with different playing styles, such as those that favour a faster-paced offence.
KenPom also provides various other offensive and defensive statistics, including free throw percentage, three-point percentage, rebounding, assist rate, and steal rate. These statistics offer a detailed breakdown of team and player performance, allowing for strategic adjustments and comparisons between different teams and players.
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It's used for college basketball betting
KenPom is a basketball statistics website founded by Ken Pomeroy in 2002. Pomeroy, a computer programmer and former meteorologist, began using statistics to analyze college basketball and developed a rating system that has become widely used by fans, coaches, analysts, and bettors.
The KenPom ratings are highly influential when it comes to betting on college basketball. The ratings are based on advanced analytics and metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency, turnover %, tempo, pace, and adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM). These stats provide a more nuanced and accurate picture of a team's performance than traditional stats like points per game or field goal percentage. KenPom's statistical models are well-received by experts and are often used to evaluate teams and predict outcomes.
The KenPom website provides in-depth analysis and rankings for college basketball teams, helping bettors make more informed predictions. The website offers a projected final score between two teams, along with a matchup page that allows bettors to compare teams in various ways, such as average height, experience, and bench minutes. The AdjEM metric, for instance, indicates by how many points a team would outscore the "average" Division I program. The Adjusted Tempo (AdjT) metric is also valuable for bettors as it helps forecast the pace of the game and the number of opportunities for each team.
While KenPom is a respected and reliable source for college basketball statistics and analysis, it is not perfect. Bettors should consider other factors as well when evaluating a team's performance. Experienced bettors may use the KenPom betting strategy, but it depends on their personal preferences. KenPom is a popular method for managing one's bankroll in sports betting, but it may not suit every bettor. Additionally, while KenPom was once more accurate than sportsbooks at predicting game outcomes, sportsbooks have since caught on and now use KenPom when setting their odds.
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It's also known as the Pomeroy Ratings
KenPom, or the Pomeroy Ratings, is a series of predictive ratings of men's college basketball teams. The ratings are published free of charge online by Ken Pomeroy. The sports rating system is based on the Pythagorean expectation, with some adjustments. The KenPom ratings are purely measured from an efficiency perspective, helping to predict how each team will fare when matched against opponents. The system breaks down teams on a possession-by-possession basis, analysing offensive and defensive performance per 100 possessions.
The overall ranking of teams is determined by the Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM), which takes the offensive efficiency and subtracts the defensive efficiency to determine how many points a team would win by against an average Division I team. The higher the AdjEM, the better. Other metrics include adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO), adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD), and adjusted tempo (AdjT).
KenPom also includes non-numeric factors such as offensive and defensive styles of play. One such measure is log5, a proprietary blend of data for projecting the likelihood of teams advancing in tournaments. Ken Pomeroy first published his ratings in 2003, and they have gained prominence since, being used by college basketball teams, in the media, and by the NCAA tournament selection committee.
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Frequently asked questions
KenPom is a college basketball metric system that ranks all 353 Division I basketball teams based on their performance. It was created by Ken Pomeroy.
KenPom uses a variety of statistics such as shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule to calculate offensive, defensive, and overall "efficiency" numbers for all Division I teams. It also uses a Pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage.
KenPom measures the efficiency of all Division I teams and helps predict how each team will fare against opponents based on advanced statistics. It also measures the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency of teams, which refers to how many points a team would score or allow per 100 possessions against an average Division I opponent.
