Amanda Knapp
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a basketball rating system that summarises a player's statistical performance into a single number. Developed by John Hollinger, the system evaluates a player's per-minute performance, taking into account positive and negative results, including field goals, free throws, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The league-average PER is set at 15, with higher numbers indicating stronger player performance. While PER is widely used, it is primarily focused on offensive performance and may not fully capture defensive abilities or other intangible contributions. It is often used in basketball betting to assess the impact of player absences and injuries on game outcomes.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| What does PER stand for? | Player Efficiency Rating |
| Who developed it? | ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger |
| What does it do? | Collects all of a player's contributions into one number |
| What does it measure? | Per-minute performance, while adjusting for pace |
| What does it take into account? | Positive and negative results |
| What are positive results? | Field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals |
| What are negative results? | Missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls |
| How does it calculate the rating? | Adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system |
| What is the league-average PER? | 15.00 |
| What is the final step? | Takes away the advantage held by players whose teams play a fast-break style and sets the league average to 15.00 |
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What You'll Learn
Using PER to evaluate players and opponents
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. In Hollinger's own words, "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance." The PER formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The average PER is set at 15, with a "great" player achieving a mid-to-high 20s rating and a poor player scoring below 10.
The PER formula takes into account positive results, including field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals, and negative results, including missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis, allowing for comparisons between players with different amounts of playing time. This also accounts for the pace of the game, ensuring players on slower-paced teams are not penalised for having fewer possessions.
The PER system is not without its limitations. Hollinger himself admits that defensive efficiency for players can be skewed because blocks and steals can lead to false conclusions about a player's defensive value. Some have also argued that PER gives undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes, and that it undervalues players with a diverse skillset who can play starter's minutes.
Despite these limitations, PER can be a useful tool for evaluating players and opponents, particularly those who may be flying under the radar. For example, a player who passes the "eye test" but doesn't stand out may be more valuable than initially thought when their PER is taken into account. Coaches can use PER as a complement to their visual impressions of players, helping to identify areas where a player may be lacking and informing decisions about a player's role and utilisation.
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How PER can be used for NBA betting lines
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity and performance. It was developed by John Hollinger to collect all of a player's contributions into one number. The formula for PER takes into account positive results, including field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals, and negative results, including missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that substitutes can be compared with starters. The league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons.
While PER is not a perfect evaluation of a player's accomplishments during the season, it can be a useful tool for NBA betting lines. Here are a few ways PER can be used for NBA betting:
- Player Props: NBA player props allow bettors to wager on specific player statistics, such as points scored, rebounds, or assists. PER can be used to evaluate a player's statistical accomplishments and predict their performance in these areas.
- Over/Under: This bet type involves predicting whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a specific number. While this is independent of the team's victory, PER can be used to assess the offensive capabilities of the players on each team and predict the total score.
- NBA Championship Odds: For those interested in long-term bets, NBA championship odds are a popular choice. PER can be used to evaluate the overall strength of a team's roster and predict their chances of winning the championship.
- Live Betting: Live betting allows bettors to place wagers during the game, and PER can be used to evaluate a player's or team's performance in real-time and make more informed decisions.
- Comparing Players: PER allows for the comparison of players, even if there is a disparity in their minutes played. This can be useful when evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of opposing teams and predicting the outcome of a game.
While PER can be a valuable tool for NBA betting lines, it is important to remember that it is not a perfect evaluation of a player's defensive abilities or overall accomplishments. Other factors, such as team dynamics, injuries, and public sentiment, can also impact the outcome of a game and should be considered when placing bets.
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PER's limitations in measuring defensive abilities
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a basketball rating system that aims to quantify a player's overall impact on a game by boiling down their contributions to a single metric. It was created by sportswriter John Hollinger in the late 1990s to make it easier to evaluate players and understand their on-court contributions. The formula for PER is quite complicated, taking into account various positive and negative results, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. While PER is a popular and mainstream NBA advanced stat, it does have some limitations when it comes to measuring defensive abilities.
One limitation of PER is that it may not adequately capture the defensive impact of players who specialize in defense. Hollinger himself has stated that "PER is not the final, once-and-for-all evaluation of a player's accomplishments during the season," especially for defensive specialists who don't accumulate many blocks or steals. As a result, a terrific defender who consistently makes defensive plays that don't show up in the box score may be underrated by PER since it relies solely on statistical performance.
Another limitation of PER is that it may overvalue players who accumulate impressive individual statistics but may hurt their team's overall performance. For example, a player who frequently shoots the ball but has poor shot selection or disrupts team chemistry may still achieve a high PER. This limitation arises because PER is calculated based on individual statistics without considering the context of the game or the team's overall strategy.
Additionally, PER may not fully account for the diverse skills and contributions of players who excel in multiple areas. It has been argued that PER gives undue weight to a player's performance in limited minutes or against weaker opposition. This can undervalue players who have the versatility and ability to play starter's minutes but may not stand out in a single category.
Furthermore, PER may not adequately reflect the physical demands and physiological responses of players during a game. Basketball is a dynamic and physically demanding sport, with players requiring speed, strength, agility, and explosive power. However, PER primarily focuses on statistical performance and may not capture the full range of athletic abilities and conditioning required to perform at a high level.
While PER provides a quantitative measure of a player's overall impact, it should be noted that it is just one tool among many performance metrics used in basketball. Other defensive statistics, such as steals per game, blocks per game, and defensive ratings, can provide additional insights into a player's defensive abilities and overall contribution to the team's success. By considering a comprehensive set of metrics and contextual factors, coaches, analysts, and fans can gain a more holistic understanding of a player's defensive capabilities.
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Adjusted PER (APER) to address shortcomings
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a basketball rating system that collects a player's contributions and boils them down to a single number. It was developed by John Hollinger and uses a detailed formula to rate a player's statistical performance. The rating is adjusted to a per-minute basis to facilitate comparisons between substitutes and starters.
PER has been criticised for its over-simplicity and for undervaluing players with a diverse playing style. It also gives undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes and does not adequately capture defensive abilities. For example, it includes blocks and steals, which can produce a distorted picture of a player's defensive value.
Adjusted Player Efficiency Rating (APER) is a version of Hollinger's PER that includes unassisted and assisted field goals and charges taken. However, APER is considered to be flawed in the same way as PER.
To address the shortcomings of PER and APER, a more comprehensive rating system could be developed that gives greater weight to a player's performance in key moments of the game, regardless of the number of minutes played. This could include factors such as the impact of a player's actions on the outcome of the game, their ability to create opportunities for teammates, and their effectiveness in both offensive and defensive roles.
Additionally, the rating system could be adjusted to account for the pace of the game and the playing style of the team, to ensure that players on teams with a fast-break style are not advantaged. This could involve giving greater weight to certain statistics, such as rebounds or assists, that are independent of the pace of the game.
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PER's applicability to college players
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a basketball rating system that collects all of a player's contributions into a single number. It was developed by John Hollinger and is primarily used to evaluate offensive performance. The formula takes into account positive results such as field goals, free throws, assists, rebounds, and blocks, while also considering negative outcomes like missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The rating is then adjusted to a per-minute basis, allowing for comparisons between substitutes and starters.
While PER is commonly used in the NBA, its applicability to college players is a separate discussion. College basketball, particularly at the NCAA level, has unique dynamics and considerations that may impact the usefulness of PER. Firstly, college teams often have a wider range of player skill levels and development stages compared to professional teams. This variation in talent and experience across college players can make it challenging to establish a consistent baseline for comparison using PER.
Additionally, the NCAA has specific eligibility requirements for student-athletes, including academic readiness and amateur status. These eligibility criteria can influence the composition of college teams and the playing time allocated to each player. For example, a college team may prioritize giving playing time to eligible freshmen over more skilled but academically ineligible upperclassmen. This dynamic can affect the accumulation of statistics, which is a fundamental aspect of PER.
Furthermore, college basketball often serves as a platform for player development and experimentation with different positions and strategies. As a result, players may exhibit inconsistent performances or fluctuate between positions, making it challenging to evaluate their efficiency using a standardized metric like PER. College coaches may also be more inclined to focus on long-term player development rather than short-term efficiency ratings.
Despite these considerations, PER can still provide valuable insights for evaluating college players. It offers a quantitative method for comparing players within a team or across different colleges. College coaches and scouts can utilize PER to identify players who make efficient contributions during their playing time, particularly when considering recruitment or roster selections. However, it is essential to acknowledge that PER has limitations, especially when applied to defensive specialists or players with diverse skill sets.
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Frequently asked questions
PER stands for Player Efficiency Rating. It is a rating that summarises a player's statistical performance into a single number. It was created by John Hollinger and is adjusted to the pace of play and an individual's playing time.
The PER formula takes into account both positive and negative results. Positive results include field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals. Negative results include missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis.
The average PER score is 15. A "great" player will have a score in the mid to high 20s, while a poor player will score below 10.
