Amanda Knapp
Possession is a crucial statistic in basketball, serving as the foundation for understanding various performance metrics and analytics. It is defined as a game action that begins when a player gains control of the ball and ends when the ball is turned over, a field goal is attempted, or a free throw is made. The number of possessions is essential for calculating a team's pace, which refers to the speed of their gameplay. By adjusting for pace, analysts can derive meaningful insights into a team's performance, such as points per possession or turnover percentage. Possession calculations also enable comparisons between teams, standardising metrics like assists per 100 possessions rather than per game. While the rules for determining possession are well-defined, the specific equations used to estimate possessions can vary, with different coefficients applied to account for free throws and offensive rebounds.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition | A possession is defined by the NBA as Section XVIII-Team Possession. |
| Possession Start | A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. |
| Possession End | Team possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. |
| Possession Calculation | FGA + 0.44*FTA + TO (FGA-Field Goal Attempt, FTA-Free Throw Attempt, TO-Turnover) |
| Possession Calculation (College Basketball) | FGA + 0.475*FTA + TO - ORB (ORB-Offensive Rebound) |
| Possession Calculation (Alternative) | FGA + 0.4328*FTA - ORB + TO |
| Possession and Pace | The number of possessions determine the team's pace. The greater the number of possessions, the faster the game speed. |
| Points Per Possession | Points Per Possession (PPP) is a statistic that standardizes points scored or allowed per possession. |
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What You'll Learn
Possession defined by the NBA
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball, and it is often used as a basis for calculating various performance metrics. The NBA defines possession as a player holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains control or when there is a field goal attempt.
A dribble is the movement of the ball caused by a player in control, who throws or taps the ball to the floor. To be in control, a player must be able to hold, change hands, pass, or shoot the ball. A team cannot be in continuous possession of the ball in their backcourt for more than 8 seconds. If this rule is violated, the penalty is the loss of the ball, which is then awarded to the opposing team at the midcourt line.
A field goal attempt is when a player tries to shoot the ball into their basket. The shooting motion starts when, in the official's judgment, the player has started their shooting motion, and it ends when the motion ceases, and they return to a normal floor position. For jump shots, the shooting motion starts when the offensive player begins to bring the ball upward towards the basket.
Possession can also end with a turnover or a free throw, with the exception of offensive rebounds, which extend possessions. Technical foul shots and "AND 1"s do not count as possessions, and not all free throws take up a possession. To account for this, the number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts.
Pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency metrics are all based on possession calculations. By adjusting the possession count to 100, it becomes easier to calculate offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Possession-based analytics have become increasingly important in basketball, with various models and coefficients being used to estimate and analyze possession data.
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Possession changes
Turnovers
A turnover occurs when the team with possession of the ball loses it to the opposing team before a shot is attempted. This can happen due to a steal, a violation, or a foul. Turnovers are one of the most common ways that possession changes occur in basketball.
Field Goal Attempts
A field goal attempt is when a player shoots the ball with the intention of scoring a field goal. Possession changes occur when a player attempts a field goal, regardless of whether the shot is made or missed. If the shot is missed and the defensive team rebounds the ball, they gain possession and can start their attack.
Free Throws
Free throws are uncontested shots taken by a player after a foul has been committed by the opposing team. Not all free throws result in a change of possession. Technical foul shots and "and-1" situations do not result in a change of possession. The number of free throws that end a possession is estimated to be around 44%.
Rebounds
Rebounds occur when a player gains possession of the ball after a missed shot. Offensive rebounds, where the rebounding player is on the same team as the shooter, do not result in a change of possession. Only defensive rebounds, where the player is on the opposing team to the shooter, result in a change of possession.
Out-of-Bounds
If the ball goes out of bounds, possession is awarded to the team that did not last touch the ball before it went out. This can occur from a missed shot, a pass, or a loose ball. Possession changes in these situations are determined by which team last touched the ball.
These are the primary ways that possession changes occur in basketball. By understanding these rules, players, coaches, and analysts can gain a deeper understanding of the game and make more informed strategic decisions.
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Possession calculations
Possession is a fundamental metric in basketball analytics. It is defined by the NBA as a team possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. This possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. However, an offensive rebound does not end a possession.
A common definition of possession is a play that ends in a turnover, a field goal, or a free throw, with the exception that possessions are extended by offensive rebounds. This means that technical foul shots and "and-ones" are not considered possessions, as they do not end a play. To account for this, the total number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts. This multiplier can vary depending on the league, with 0.475 used in college basketball and 0.44 in the NBA.
The number of possessions is used to calculate a team's pace, which refers to the game speed. A higher number of possessions indicates a faster pace. Possession calculations are also used to determine offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. By adjusting these metrics to per 100 possessions, analysts can gain a more meaningful understanding of a team's performance.
To calculate the number of possessions, the following formula can be used:
Possessions = FGA + 0.44 x FTA - ORB + TO
Where:
- FGA = Field Goal Attempts
- FTA = Free Throw Attempts
- ORB = Offensive Rebounds
- TO = Turnovers
This formula provides an estimate of the number of possessions for a team or an individual player.
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Turnovers and possession
Turnovers play a crucial role in determining possession in basketball. A turnover occurs when a team loses possession of the ball, resulting in the opponent gaining an opportunity to attack. This can happen through various means, such as a steal, a bad pass, or a violation. Understanding turnovers is essential for both teams' strategies as possession is a vital metric in basketball analytics.
In basketball analytics, a possession is typically defined as a play that ends in either a turnover, a field goal attempt, or a free throw. However, it's important to note that offensive rebounds extend possessions. Therefore, when calculating the number of possessions, it's crucial to consider both turnovers and offensive rebounds.
The formula for calculating possessions is often given as FGA + 0.44 x FTA + TO, where FGA represents field goal attempts, FTA represents free throw attempts, and TO represents turnovers. The 0.44 multiplier is used because not all free throws result in a change of possession. Technical foul shots and "and-ones" do not count as possessions, and there may be multiple free throws on a single possession.
Turnover percentage is a critical metric in basketball analytics. It is calculated by dividing the total number of turnovers by the total number of possessions. This provides a clear indication of a team's ability to maintain possession and make effective plays. A high turnover percentage suggests a team is struggling to maintain control of the ball, which can lead to reduced scoring opportunities and defensive vulnerabilities.
To further standardize possession-based metrics, analysts often refer to possessions per 100 possessions. This accounts for potential differences in the pace of play between teams. By adjusting for pace, comparisons can be made between teams with varying styles, ensuring a more accurate interpretation of performance.
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Pace and possession
To calculate the number of possessions, we can use the formula: poss = FGA + 0.44 x FTA - ORB + TO. FGA refers to field goal attempts, FTA to free-throw attempts, ORB to offensive rebounds, and TO to turnovers. The 0.44 multiplier is used because not all free throws result in a change of possession. This formula provides an estimate of the number of possessions, as it accounts for the number of free throws that end a possession and the number of rebounds that turn into dead-ball possessions.
By adjusting for pace, we can better understand a team's performance and strategy. For example, a team with a high number of turnovers may simply have more possessions per game, rather than being less skilled. Pace can also be influenced by overtime games, transition opportunities, and possession lengths.
Additionally, advanced statistics such as turnover percentage, offensive and defensive ratings, and net rating can be calculated using possession and pace data. These statistics provide valuable insights into a team's performance and can be compared across different games and seasons.
In summary, understanding pace and possession in basketball is crucial for analyzing team and player performance. By defining possession and calculating the number of possessions, we can determine a team's pace and gain meaningful insights into the game's dynamics and strategies. These analytics have become an integral part of basketball, helping coaches, players, and executives make informed decisions and improve their gameplay.
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