Helena Frye
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN columnist John Hollinger to evaluate player careers. It is a method of determining a player's impact on the game by measuring their per-minute performance. The PER sums up all of a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative ones, and returns a per-minute rating of their performance. This is computed using a detailed, complex formula that adds positive stats like rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats like missed shots or turnovers.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Creator | ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger |
| Purpose | Collect or boil down all of a player's contributions into one number |
| Basis | Player's positive and negative accomplishments |
| Rating | Per-minute rating of a player's performance |
| Database | Includes data from 1988-89 season onwards |
| Calculation | Begins with unadjusted PER (uPER) |
| League average | 15.00 |
| Positive results | Field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals |
| Negative results | Missed shots, turnovers, personal fouls |
| Use | Determining the value of injuries |
| Comparison | PER is useful for comparing players from different teams or eras |
| Similar metrics | Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, VORP |
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What You'll Learn
Calculating Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. It is a method of determining a player's impact on the game by measuring their per-minute performance. In Hollinger's own words: "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance."
The PER is computed using a detailed, complex formula that adds positive stats such as rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats such as missed shots or turnovers. The formula is considered too complicated by some, but it essentially provides a snapshot of where players stand in relation to one another.
The PER has its limitations, however. One criticism is that defensive specialists are often undervalued because there aren't many reliable defensive stats to input into the formula. Good defense is harder to quantify.
Despite this drawback, the PER is still a valuable tool for basketball handicappers. It can be used to determine the value of injuries, for example. If a key player is out, it's obvious that this will impact the game. But what about a role player or a good rebounder? PER can help uncover the value of players who are otherwise overlooked, giving an indication of how efficient and effective they are in their limited minutes off the bench.
The PER is also useful for comparing players. The average PER in the league is 15.0, and the highest PERs in history belong to some of the greatest players, including Michael Jordan, Lebron James, and Anthony Davis.
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PER's usefulness in basketball betting
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a useful tool for basketball betting, particularly when used in conjunction with other data. Developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger, PER is a per-minute rating that sums up a player's positive and negative accomplishments. It was one of the first metrics to include a full range of basketball stats while adjusting for the game's pace.
PER is a valuable tool for fans, analysts, and team executives as it condenses player performance into a single number. This makes it easier to compare players and identify those who are particularly efficient or effective. For example, a player with a high PER who comes off the bench or is a good rebounder may be more crucial to their team than expected.
While PER is a useful metric, it does have some limitations. For example, defensive specialists are often undervalued in the calculation due to a lack of reliable defensive stats. Additionally, PER does not consider intangibles like leadership or clutch scoring. As such, it is important to use PER in conjunction with other data to get a full picture of a player's impact.
In basketball betting, PER can be used to determine the value of injuries or the absence of certain players. For instance, if a player with a high PER is sitting out, it may indicate that their team's performance could be more significantly impacted than previously thought. This information can be used to make more informed bets on the spread, moneyline, or total.
Overall, while PER should not be the sole factor considered when betting on basketball, it is a valuable tool that can provide insights into player efficiency and team performance. By understanding how to calculate PER and how to use advanced stats and metrics, bettors can make smarter wagers and improve their chances of winning.
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PER's limitations
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. It is a mainstream NBA advanced stat that attempts to collect or boil down all of a player's contributions into one number.
However, PER has its limitations. Firstly, it largely measures offensive performance and does not reliably assess a player's defensive abilities. Hollinger acknowledges that two of the defensive statistics incorporated into PER, blocks and steals, can produce a distorted picture of a player's defensive value.
Secondly, PER gives undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes or against a team's second unit. It undervalues players who have the versatility to play starter's minutes. For example, a center on the Los Angeles Clippers, Ivica Zubac, had a higher PER than Paul George, which suggests that Zubac's absence could impact the game and betting lines more than expected.
Thirdly, PER rewards inefficient shooting. According to Dave Berri, author of "The Wages of Wins," Hollinger's values for two-point and three-point field goals made and missed can incentivize players to shoot more, as the more shots a player takes, the higher their value in PERs.
Additionally, PER cannot be calculated for NBA seasons prior to 1978, as the league did not keep track of turnovers and other advanced statistics before that year.
Lastly, while PER provides a snapshot of where players stand in relation to one another, it is an individual metric in a team sport. Therefore, it should not be the sole factor in evaluating a team's performance or making betting decisions. Other factors, such as points per game and rebounds per game, should also be considered to get a full picture of each player and team.
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Other efficiency ratings
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. It sums up all of a player's positive and negative accomplishments and returns a per-minute rating of their performance. However, it is not the only efficiency rating in basketball. Other efficiency ratings include:
- Efficiency (EFF): This is a composite basketball statistic derived from basic individual statistics such as points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, and shot attempts. It accounts for both offensive and defensive contributions, but it is thought that efficiency ratings favour offence-oriented players as defensive contributions are harder to quantify. The NBA publishes these statistics online.
- Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER): This rating specifically measures a player's offensive performance.
- Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER): This rating specifically measures a player's defensive performance. However, it is generally thought that defensive specialists are undervalued in these ratings as there are not many reliable defensive stats to input into the formula.
- DPR (Defensive Player Rating): This stat shows a player's defensive prowess and their impact on their team. It uses a per-game formula that equates for the amount of time spent on the court and takes into account position competition pace and era, as well as other factors.
- Performance Index Rating (PIR): This formula is used in the EuroLeague, its second-tier level of competition, the EuroCup, and several European national domestic leagues.
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PER's history
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist and former Memphis Grizzlies Vice President of Basketball Operations, John Hollinger. Hollinger's work was influenced by sabermetric baseball analysts, such as Bill James, who observed that traditional counting statistics in baseball are not reliable indicators of a player's value. Hollinger extended this critique to basketball, noting that a player's opportunities to accumulate statistics are dependent on the number of minutes played and the pace of the game.
In the late 1990s, Hollinger created PER as a way to measure each NBA player's overall impact on the game. The idea was to condense a player's contributions into a single metric, making it easier to evaluate players and understand their on-court contributions. PER sums up all of a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and provides a per-minute rating of their performance. It takes into account positive results, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals, while also considering negative results, such as missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls.
The league-average PER is always 15.00, which allows for comparisons of player performance across seasons. However, it is important to note that PER cannot be calculated for NBA seasons prior to 1978, as the league did not keep track of turnovers and other advanced statistics before that year. Additionally, PER primarily measures offensive performance, and Hollinger acknowledges that the defensive statistics it incorporates, such as blocks and steals, may not provide an accurate picture of a player's defensive skills.
While PER has been widely used and is considered one of the best basketball stats, it has faced some criticism. Some argue that it gives too much weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes and undervalues players who have the versatility to play starter's minutes. It has also been said to reward inefficient shooting, as a player can inflate their value by taking a large number of shots. Despite these limitations, PER remains a popular and influential metric in the NBA, shaping how front offices evaluate players, how coaches create game plans, and how players approach the game.
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Frequently asked questions
PER stands for Player Efficiency Rating.
PER is computed using a detailed, complex formula that adds positive stats such as rebounds, assists, and steals, and subtracts negative stats like missed shots or turnovers.
The average PER in the league is typically set to 15. The higher the PER, the better. The greatest players like Michael Jordan, Lebron James, and Anthony Davis have the highest PERs in history.
PER provides a snapshot of a player's performance and their value to the team. It is especially useful for basketball betting, helping to determine the impact of injuries or player absences on the game and betting lines.
To calculate per 100 possessions, you take the total points scored and divide them by the number of possessions, then multiply by 100. For example, if a player scored 20 points in a game with 80 possessions, their points per 100 possessions would be 25 (20 / 80) * 100 = 25.
