Helena Frye
Daily fantasy basketball is less volatile than other daily fantasy sports, as the minutes and production rates of players are more predictable. To calculate a player's fantasy points per minute (FP/Minute), take their average fantasy points per game and divide it by their average minutes per game. This basic calculation can be used to predict a player's performance, especially when combined with other factors that affect fantasy production. To take your projections to the next level, you can use a projected FP/Minute calculation, which takes into account factors such as injuries, matchups, and recent performance. Once you have your FP/Minute, you can predict the minutes for each player and come up with a fantasy point projection.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Fantasy Points Calculation | Points * (1) + 3PTM * (0.5) + Rebounds * (1.25) + Assists * (1.5) + Steals * (2) + Blocks * (2) + Turnovers * (-0.5) + Double Double +1.5 + Triple Double +3 |
| Fantasy Points Per Minute Calculation | Average fantasy points per game / average minutes per game |
| Fantasy Points Projection | Fantasy Points Per Minute * predicted minutes played |
| Factors Affecting Fantasy Points Projection | Injuries, matchup, expected pace of the game, total of the game, blowout potential of the game, player's recent performance |
| Block | When a defensive player tips the ball as the offensive player attempts a shot |
| Steal | When a defensive player takes the ball from an offensive player, causing a turnover |
| Turnover | When an offensive player loses the ball to the defense for any reason other than a missed shot |
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What You'll Learn
Fantasy points per minute (FP/Minute)
FP/Minute is a useful statistic to employ in daily fantasy basketball as it can be used to predict a player's future performance, especially when combined with other factors that affect fantasy production. For example, if we can predict a player's minutes, we can multiply that by their FP/Minute to get a fantasy point projection for that player.
You can also use a projected FP/Minute rather than the actual FP/Minute to take your daily fantasy basketball projections to the next level. This allows you to include other factors that play a role in determining fantasy production, such as injuries, the matchup, the expected pace of the game, the total of the game, the blowout potential of the game, and a player's recent performance.
However, it is important not to adjust the FP/Minute too much, as this can lead to unrealistic projections. A good rule of thumb is to adjust a player's FP/Minute by a maximum of 15%.
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Projected vs actual FP/Minute
When it comes to fantasy basketball, there are a few ways to calculate a player's projected performance. One common method is to use a player's Fantasy Points per Minute (FP/Minute). This is calculated by taking their average fantasy points per game and dividing it by their average minutes per game. This can be a good indicator of future performance, especially when combined with other factors.
Using a projected FP/Minute, rather than the actual FP/Minute, can be a powerful tool. This allows you to factor in a range of variables that can influence a player's performance, such as injuries, the matchup, the pace and expected total of the game, and a player's recent form. By adjusting the FP/Minute, you can get a more realistic projection of a player's performance. However, it is important not to adjust the FP/Minute too drastically, as this can lead to unrealistic projections. A good rule of thumb is to adjust by a maximum of 15%, to ensure the projection remains credible.
For example, let's say a player averages 50 fantasy points per game and plays for an average of 20 minutes per game. Their basic FP/Minute would be 2.5. If you then consider factors such as an injury, a strong matchup, and good recent form, you might adjust their FP/Minute by 15%, giving a new projection of 2.875 FP/Minute. This would suggest a player performing at this rate for 20 minutes would score 57.5 fantasy points.
Another approach to projecting FP/Minute is to use a regression model. This can involve looking at a player's season average FP/Minute, whether they started the last game, and a 3-5 game moving average of minutes played. This can produce results comparable to top projection sites. Additionally, when considering FP/Minute adjustments, it is worth looking at the impact of the opponent on a player's performance. For instance, certain teams may give up more points to specific positions, which could influence your projections.
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Predicting minutes for each player
Predicting the minutes for each player is a crucial aspect of succeeding in daily fantasy basketball on DraftKings. Here are some strategies to help you make informed predictions:
Recent Playing Time:
Start by looking at a player's recent playing time to identify trends. Consider their average minutes over their last 10 games and their performance in the last few games. This can provide a baseline for projecting their expected minutes, which can then be adjusted based on other factors.
Injuries and Roster Changes:
Injury news can significantly impact a player's minutes. Keep an eye out for injuries to key players, as this may result in increased minutes for other team members. Similarly, trades, roster changes, or player absences due to illness, rest, or personal reasons can create opportunities for players who usually have limited playing time.
Game Dynamics:
Consider the dynamics of the game, including the matchup, expected pace, and potential for a blowout. For example, if a team is playing against a strong opponent, they may adjust their strategy, affecting individual players' minutes. Additionally, the pace of the game can impact the overall number of minutes available for each player.
Player Performance:
Analyze a player's recent performance and their historical points per minute played. Look for players who are in good form or consistently perform well in specific matchups. This can help identify players who are likely to see more minutes based on their recent contributions to the team.
Salary and Value:
Consider the salary and value equation when predicting minutes. Compare a player's salary to their expected performance. If a player's projected points are significantly higher than their salary suggests, they may offer better value and be worth including in your lineup.
Position and Strategy:
Different positions have different scoring potentials. For example, a center is more likely to block shots than a guard. Consider the unique blend of starters required by DraftKings, including one point guard, one shooting guard, one small forward, one power forward, one center, etc. Understanding the scoring dynamics of each position will help you predict minutes more effectively.
By combining these strategies and analyzing multiple factors, you can make more informed predictions about the minutes for each player, which will ultimately improve your daily fantasy basketball lineups on DraftKings.
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Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks
When it comes to DraftKings' fantasy basketball, points are calculated using a formula that takes into account various player statistics, including points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks.
Points are the most basic and crucial aspect of fantasy basketball scoring. The points scored by a player directly translate to fantasy points, with each point scored in an NBA game being worth one fantasy point.
Rebounds, which occur when a player gains possession of the ball after a missed shot, are also crucial. For each rebound, a player accumulates 1.25 fantasy points.
Assists are another important factor, with each assist being worth 1.5 fantasy points. An assist is credited to a player who passes the ball to a teammate, leading to a successful field goal attempt.
Steals and blocks are defensive actions that contribute significantly to fantasy points. A steal occurs when a defensive player takes the ball from an offensive player, resulting in a turnover. Similarly, a block happens when a defensive player legally deflects or blocks a shot attempt by an offensive player. Both steals and blocks carry a high value of 2 fantasy points each, emphasizing the importance of defensive contributions in the scoring system.
To calculate the overall fantasy points, you would sum up the values for points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, along with any other relevant statistical categories, such as turnovers or double-doubles.
Additionally, it's worth noting that advanced calculations can be made using the Fantasy Points per Minute (FP/Minute) metric. This is calculated by taking the average fantasy points per game and dividing it by the average minutes played per game. By predicting a player's minutes and multiplying it by their FP/Minute, you can project their potential fantasy point performance. This method is particularly useful for daily fantasy basketball, providing insights into a player's performance expectations.
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Turnovers, double/triple doubles
Turnovers occur when a player loses possession of the ball to the opposing team. This can happen through steals, errant passes, or losing control of the ball. In DraftKings fantasy basketball, turnovers are penalised and subtract 0.5 points from a player's total. Therefore, players with high turnover rates may be less desirable in fantasy basketball.
Double-doubles and triple-doubles, on the other hand, are highly desirable in fantasy basketball. A double-double occurs when a player reaches double digits in any two categories in a single game: points, rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks. A triple-double occurs when a player reaches double digits in any three of these categories in a single game.
For example, let's say Player A has 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 blocks in a game. This would be considered a double-double, as they have reached double digits in points and rebounds. If they had also accumulated 10 assists, it would have been a triple-double.
In DraftKings fantasy basketball, double-doubles and triple-doubles are rewarded with bonus points. A double-double adds 1.5 points, while a triple-double adds 3 points to a player's total. Therefore, players who consistently achieve double-doubles or triple-doubles can significantly boost your fantasy team's score.
When evaluating players for your fantasy draft, it is important to consider their historical performance and potential for achieving double-doubles or triple-doubles. For example, James Harden is known for his ability to consistently produce double-doubles, making him a valuable asset in fantasy basketball.
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Frequently asked questions
To calculate fantasy basketball points on DraftKings, you need to multiply a player's minutes by their Fantasy Points per Minute (FP/Minute). The FP/Minute is calculated by taking the average fantasy points per game and dividing it by the average minutes per game.
To calculate FP/Minute, take a player's average fantasy points per game and divide it by their average minutes per game.
To predict a player's minutes, look at their average minutes over their last 10 games and their recent performance. Adjust these numbers based on factors like injuries, trades, and rotation changes.
To improve your projections, use a projected FP/Minute rather than the actual FP/Minute. This allows you to account for factors like injuries, matchups, the expected pace of the game, and a player's recent performance.
