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Possession is a fundamental metric for understanding basketball analytics. It is calculated when a player on a team (1) attempts a field goal, (2) misses a shot and the offensive rebound is not secured, (3) turns over the ball, or (4) goes to the line for multiple shots and either makes the final shot or loses the rebound. The total number of possessions is used to calculate the team's pace, with a higher number of possessions indicating a faster game pace. To estimate the number of possessions, the total number of free-throw attempts is multiplied by 0.44, accounting for the fact that not all free throws end a possession. This formula can be used to calculate other statistics, such as turnover percentage and offensive/defensive ratings, providing insights into a team's performance and strategy.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Possession starts | Having or passing the ball |
| Possession ends | Field goal attempt or defensive team gaining the ball |
| Possession calculation | Every time a player (1) attempts a field goal, (2) misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound, turns the ball over, goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot |
| Free throws | Multiply by 0.44 to estimate possessions ended by free-throw attempts |
| Offensive rebounds | Do not generate new possessions and must be subtracted |
| Turnovers | Can be attributed to more possessions |
| Pace | The greater the number of possessions, the greater the game speed |
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What You'll Learn
Possession ends with a field goal attempt or defensive team gaining the ball
Possession in basketball is a fundamental concept that underpins many analytical metrics used to evaluate team and player performance. A deep understanding of possession rules is essential for coaches, analysts, and fans seeking to interpret basketball statistics accurately.
Offensive team possession in basketball begins when a player on that team has or passes the ball. Possession then continues until a field goal attempt is made or the defensive team gains possession of the ball. This definition of possession forms the basis for calculating various basketball metrics and is crucial for understanding the flow and dynamics of the game.
When calculating possessions, it's important to note that not all situations are created equal. For instance, an offensive rebound does not initiate a new possession. Instead, it extends the current possession, allowing the offensive team to maintain control of the ball. This distinction is critical for accurate possession counting and understanding the rhythm of the game.
Another factor to consider is the impact of free throws on possession. Not all free throws result in the conclusion of a possession. Technical foul shots and "and-ones" are examples of free throws that do not end a possession. To account for this, analysts use a multiplier of 0.44 when calculating the number of possessions used during free throw attempts. This multiplier represents the historical average of possessions used per free throw attempt and helps standardize possession calculations across different game scenarios.
By considering these nuances in possession rules, analysts can gain deeper insights into the performance of basketball teams and players. Possession-based metrics, such as points per possession and turnover percentage, provide a more nuanced perspective on offensive and defensive efficiency, helping to identify strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement.
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Offensive rebounds don't generate new possessions
In basketball, a rebound is when a player retrieves the ball after a missed field goal or free throw. Rebounds are divided into two categories: offensive rebounds and defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds occur when the offensive side recovers the ball without changing possession. Defensive rebounds happen when the defending team gains possession.
Possession is a fundamental metric in basketball analytics. It is calculated when a player on a team:
- Attempts a field goal
- Misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound
- Turns the ball over
- Goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot
Offensive rebounds do not generate new possessions in the statistical field. If a team grabs three offensive rebounds after three missed shots, it is counted as one possession. This is because rebounds are considered part of the same possession, as they provide an extra shot attempt opportunity without changing the possession. The team with possession gains an additional shot attempt when an offensive rebound is secured, but this does not count as a new possession.
The calculation of possessions and rebounds is crucial for understanding basketball analytics and evaluating team performance. By considering these factors, analysts can assess a team's efficiency and opportunities, such as their offensive rebound percentage and turnover percentage.
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Free throw attempts are multiplied by 0.44 to estimate possessions
Possession is a crucial metric in basketball analytics. It is used as a basis for calculating various performance indicators, such as pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. While it is relatively straightforward to count possessions, the concept of "possession" itself is more complex. For instance, an offensive rebound does not constitute a new possession.
One of the challenges in calculating basketball possessions is determining how many possessions a free throw uses. A regular free throw typically uses half a possession, but this can vary depending on the type of foul. For example, a three-point foul uses a third of a possession, while an "and-one" or a technical foul does not use any possession.
To address this challenge, analysts use a coefficient of 0.44 when multiplying the number of free throw attempts to estimate the number of possessions. This coefficient is based on historical data, which indicates that approximately 44% of all free throws take up possessions. By using this multiplier, analysts can obtain an estimate of the free throws that concluded a possession. This accounts for situations where there might be more than two free throws on one possession or where a free throw does not result in a possession, such as technical foul shots and "and-ones".
The 0.44 multiplier is widely used in the NBA and has been found to be surprisingly accurate. For example, when analysing data from NBA player James Harden's 2015 season, the errors using the 0.44 estimate were relatively small.
While the 0.44 coefficient is a useful tool for estimating possessions, it is important to note that it is still an estimation. To get a more precise calculation of possessions for both teams, analysts often calculate the average of the two teams' values.
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Turnovers can be attributed to more possessions
When calculating basketball possessions, it's important to understand the concept of turnovers and how they can impact the overall pace and flow of the game. A turnover occurs when one team loses possession of the ball, resulting in a change of possession to the other team. Turnovers can happen due to various reasons such as steals, violations, or failed shot attempts without retrieving the offensive rebound.
Now, let's delve into the relationship between turnovers and possessions. Firstly, turnovers can indeed be attributed to more possessions for a team. This is because each turnover results in a change of possession, and therefore, increases the possession count for the team gaining the ball. For example, if Team A commits a turnover, Team B will gain possession, resulting in an additional possession for them.
The impact of turnovers on possessions is further highlighted when calculating turnover percentage. Turnover percentage is calculated by dividing the total number of turnovers by the total possessions. This metric provides insight into the percentage of possessions that end in a turnover. A higher turnover percentage indicates that a team is frequently losing possession, which can disrupt their offensive flow and provide more opportunities for their opponents.
Additionally, when analyzing team performance, it is crucial to consider the pace of the game. The pace refers to the number of possessions used by both teams in a game. A faster pace indicates a higher number of possessions, while a slower pace suggests longer possession lengths. Turnovers can influence the pace of the game. For instance, a team with a high turnover rate may also have a faster pace since they are giving up possessions more often, resulting in more opportunities for their opponents.
In conclusion, turnovers play a significant role in determining the number of possessions in a basketball game. Each turnover results in a change of possession, impacting the overall possession count. Analyzing turnover percentage and considering the pace of the game provides a more comprehensive understanding of a team's performance and their ability to maintain possession. By calculating possessions and considering turnovers, coaches, analysts, and fans can gain valuable insights into the flow and dynamics of the game.
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Points per possession can be calculated without a formula
Points per possession (PPP) is an advanced statistic in basketball that measures the number of points a player generates for each possession of the ball. A player with a higher PPP generates more points per possession.
A possession in basketball is defined as a period of play during which one team has uninterrupted and complete control of the ball. A possession ends when there is a field goal attempt, a turnover, a jump ball, or after a free throw that is not the first of two. Offensive rebounds must be backed out to avoid over-counting possessions. This is because an offensive rebound does not generate a new possession in the statistical field.
The formula for accurately measuring the total number of possessions is POSSt = FGAt + 0.44 × FTAt – OREBt + TO. The 0.44 multiplier is used because historically, only about 44% of all free throws took up possessions. The 0.44 multiplier helps to accurately measure how many possessions were used during all free-throw attempts.
While the formula for points per possession is Pts / (FGAt + 0.44 × FTAt – OREBt + TO), there is no need to use this formula to make the calculation. Points per possession can be calculated by dividing the number of points scored by the number of possessions. Points per 100 possessions can be calculated by multiplying the number of points scored by 100 and then dividing by the number of possessions.
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Frequently asked questions
Possession for the offensive team starts with having or passing the ball and ends with a field goal attempt or once the defensive team gains the ball.
Possession is an important metric for understanding basketball analytics basics. Pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency metrics are all based on possession calculations.
The most common formula for estimating basketball possessions is (FGA – OR) + TO + (Y * FTA), where FGA = field goal attempts, OR = offensive rebounds, TO = turnovers, Y = a number between 0.4 and 0.44, and FTA = free throw attempts.
The 0.44 multiplier accounts for the fact that not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "AND 1"s do not count as possessions, and there might be multiple free throws on one possession.
To calculate the number of possessions per team, use the formula mentioned above. Then, to get closer to the exact value, calculate the average of the two teams' values.
