Amanda Knapp
Moneyline betting is a common wagering style in sports, especially in basketball. It is considered one of the simplest forms of betting as it involves predicting which team will win the game or match. When looking at the moneyline, each team will have either a positive or negative number next to it, indicating whether they are the underdog or the favourite. The underdog will generally have a positive number next to it, showing how much profit you will make on your bet. Conversely, the favourite will generally have a negative number next to it, showing how much has to be risked to win a $100 payout. Moneyline bets are a great way for beginners to get into sports betting, as they are straightforward and easy to understand.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Type of Bet | Moneyline bets are wagers placed on a game's outcome, specifically which team or competitor will win. |
| Teams Involved | The favourite will generally have a negative number next to it, while the underdog will have a positive number. |
| Payouts | The bigger the favourite, the smaller the payout. The bigger the underdog, the bigger the payout. |
| Odds | Odds are represented as either positive or negative. The higher the positive moneyline odds, the higher the potential profit, but the lower the probability of winning. The lower the negative moneyline odds, the more you need to bet to win, but the higher the probability of winning. |
| Wagering | The amount that can be wagered varies depending on the sportsbook selected. Most sportsbooks accept small wager amounts as well as bets up to thousands of dollars. |
| Flexibility | Moneyline bets are flexible, allowing bettors to wager on the favourite or the underdog. |
| Research | It's important to research a player or team's recent form, injuries, and historical performances to make an informed decision and minimise risk. |
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What You'll Learn
Understanding the favourite vs underdog
Moneyline bets are wagers placed on the outcome of a game, i.e., which team will win. They are considered the least complicated kind of bet because what is at stake is so straightforward.
When looking at the moneyline, each team will have either a positive or a negative number next to it. The underdog will generally have a positive number next to it, and the favourite will generally have a negative number. The bigger the favourite, the smaller the payout. The bigger the underdog, the bigger the payout.
For example, if you see a -200 favourite, you need to lay $200 to profit $100, and you would collect $300 if your team wins. If you are betting on a +200 underdog, you would profit $200 on a $100 bet, collecting $300.
In games that are expected to be very close, both teams may have a negative number. In such cases, the team that is closer to zero is the slight favourite.
It's important to note that sportsbooks tend to offer weak payouts when the favourite is likely to win. Conversely, when the odds get worse for the favourite, the odds for the underdog become more favourable.
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Positive vs negative moneyline odds
Moneyline betting is a straightforward way to bet on sports. You simply select which team or player you think will win a game or match. Unlike other types of bets, like point spreads, where you also consider how much a team will win by, moneyline bets are just about choosing the winner.
Moneyline odds are often referred to as American or US odds. They feature positive and negative odds. Negative moneylines often reflect the consensus opinion of bettors and oddsmakers regarding the stronger team. Positive odds are assigned to the perceived underdog, while negative odds are assigned to the favourite. The bigger the favourite, the smaller the payout. The bigger the underdog, the bigger the payout.
Negative odds:
- Refer to favoured teams
- Are more likely to win
- Cost more and return less profit
- Require larger bets to yield a significant profit
Positive odds:
- Refer to the underdog
- Are less likely to win
- Provide bigger payouts
- Are easier to calculate
Examples
Negative odds: If a team is listed with negative odds, like "-150", it means they're the favourite. To win $100, you need to bet $150. A $100 wager on -220 odds would return a profit of $100.
Positive odds: If a team is listed with positive odds, like "+150", it means they're the underdog. If you bet $100 and they win, you'll get $150 in profit. A $100 wager on +220 odds would return a profit of $220.
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Calculating potential winnings
Moneyline betting is considered the simplest form of betting, as it is a straightforward wager on which team will win. However, it is still important to understand how to calculate your potential winnings.
Firstly, it is important to understand the difference between implied odds and true odds. Implied odds are the conversion of a sportsbook's offered odds into an implied win probability. True odds, on the other hand, are subjective and refer to the odds that a bettor gives a certain outcome to happen. If your true probability is higher than the implied probability, then that is a valuable bet.
To calculate your potential winnings, you can use a moneyline betting calculator. This is an online tool that will automatically calculate your potential payout, as well as the implied probability of winning. All you need to do is enter the odds for a particular wager, and the calculator will do the rest. You can use any type of betting odds with this calculator, and it will convert the odds into other formats.
If you want to calculate your potential winnings manually, you can do so by taking the odds of the team winning and multiplying it by your bet amount. The resulting number is your potential payout, not including the original bet. For example, if the money line for the team you picked was -400, it means that if you placed a successful $400 bet, you would gain $100 on payout.
It is beneficial to understand the calculation, but using a moneyline calculator saves you time and can help you compare implied probabilities between sportsbooks.
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Finding the best odds
Moneyline bets are the simplest form of basketball betting. You are merely betting on which team will win the game outright. Moneyline odds can be either positive or negative, reflecting the favoured and underdog teams. The favourite will generally have a negative number next to it. The bigger the favourite, the smaller the payout. The underdog will usually have a positive number next to it. The bigger the underdog, the bigger the payout.
When looking at an NBA matchup, underdogs are more often than not represented with plus odds, while favourites are represented with minus odds. For example, if the Golden State Warriors moneyline odds are -128, they are the favourite in this matchup. The Memphis Grizzlies, with odds of +108, are the underdog. A $10 bet on the Grizzlies would win bettors $10.80, compared to a $10 bet on the Warriors, which would win $7.81.
Different sportsbooks will offer different odds. If the Jazz are +150 at one book but are at +175 at another, you are missing out on value if you're not taking the latter. It may not seem like much on a small bet, but if you're placing bigger wagers, you'd be missing out on a higher return.
It's a good idea to create more than one sports betting account so that you can take advantage of deposit bonuses and promotions on other sites. You can compare odds at different books to find the best line using an odds comparison tool.
As the time of the game draws closer, the line will also get "sharper" as the books adjust it according to injury news, starting lineups, etc.
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When to place your bet
Recent Form, Injuries, and Historical Performances:
Recent team and player performances can impact the money line odds. It's important to monitor these factors leading up to a game. If a team has been on a winning streak or has key players in exceptional form, their odds may shorten over time as more people back them. On the other hand, if a team has been struggling or has critical players out due to injuries, their odds may lengthen, making them a potentially more attractive bet.
Line Movements and Shopping for Odds:
Money lines can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, so it's worth shopping around to find the most favourable odds for your desired bet. Line movements can occur as more money comes in, and odds can change from hour to hour. Keep an eye on trusted operators' odds and be ready to place your bet when you see favourable lines. Ignoring line movements can lead to missed opportunities or lower returns.
Timing Based on Favourite vs Underdog Status:
The money line odds reflect the favourite and underdog status of the teams. If you're betting on a clear favourite, their odds may be unfavourable, resulting in a low return. In this case, placing your bet early could secure slightly better odds. Conversely, if you're considering backing an underdog, their odds may lengthen as more people bet on the favourite. Waiting a little closer to the game might improve the potential payout for an underdog bet.
Timing Based on Market Inefficiencies:
Gamblers can exploit market inefficiencies to find valuable betting opportunities. Keep an eye on factors that others may overlook, such as player matchups, historical trends, or specific in-game strategies. Placing bets when you identify these inefficiencies can result in more profitable returns.
Timing for Specific Game or Season Stages:
Consider the timing within the basketball season. Early-season games may offer more value when betting on strong teams that are still finding their rhythm. Similarly, late-season games can provide opportunities to back teams fighting for playoff spots, as their motivation can be a significant factor. Additionally, the timing within a game can matter. Live betting on money lines may provide unique opportunities to take advantage of in-game momentum shifts or unexpected events.
Remember, the timing of your bet can significantly impact your potential returns. Stay informed, be adaptable, and always gamble responsibly.
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Frequently asked questions
A money line bet is a wager on which team or competitor will win a match. It is considered the least complicated kind of bet as it is very straightforward.
A positive money line is indicated by a plus sign (+) and shows the potential profit from a $100 bet. For example, a money line of +200 means a $100 stake could yield a $200 profit. A negative money line is indicated by a minus sign (-) and shows the amount needed to stake to win $100. For example, a money line of -150 means you need to bet $150 to win $100.
The favourite will generally have a negative number next to it. The underdog will generally have a positive number next to it. In games that are expected to be very close, both teams may have a negative number. In such cases, the team that is closer to zero is the slight favourite.
Locate the money line odds and select the team you think will win the game. The amount that can be wagered varies depending on the sportsbook selected. Most sportsbooks accept small wager amounts as well as bets up to thousands of dollars.
It's important to do your research into a player or team to make an informed decision when placing a wager. The number of bets placed on a team can also affect the odds. For example, if a team that was considered an underdog suddenly had a large number of bets placed on them, the odds would need to be adjusted to balance the risk.
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