Andrew Pace
Possession is a fundamental aspect of basketball, with the team in possession having the opportunity to score. Possessions are typically defined by plays that end in turnovers, field goals, or free throws, with offensive rebounds extending possession. In the NBA, possession is defined as when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball, ending when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. The concept of a good possession is more ambiguous, but it typically involves a strong initial attack on the defense, ball movement, and an aggressive approach. Possession rules vary between college basketball and professional basketball, with college basketball employing the possession arrow or alternating-possession procedure, which uses a throw-in instead of a jump ball to start the game. Understanding possession is key to basketball analytics, with metrics like pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency based on possession calculations.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| How possession is defined | When a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball |
| Possession arrow | Used in college basketball to speed up the game and prevent injury |
| When possession arrow is used | When possession cannot be determined, such as during a held ball, a free-throw violation, or technical foul |
| Who the possession arrow points to | The team that will be getting possession of the basketball the next time possession is in question |
| How possession changes occur | When one team yields the ball to the opponent for an opportunity to hold, dribble, or pass the ball |
| How possession is calculated | When a player of that team: (1) attempts a field goal, (2) misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound, (3) turns the ball over, (4) goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot |
| Average offensive possession value | 1.1 points per possession |
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What You'll Learn
Possession is physical control
Possession in basketball is a fundamental concept that underpins the game's analytics. It is defined by the physical control of the ball by a player on a team. When a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball, their team is in possession. This possession can be gained through various means, such as a successful steal, a rebound, or a throw-in after an out-of-bounds situation.
The act of taking possession is crucial to the flow of the game. While one team has possession, they are considered the offence and their goal is to score. The opposing team, not in possession, acts as the defence and aims to prevent the offence from scoring. The defence can gain possession by causing turnovers, such as intercepting passes or blocking shots.
The importance of possession is highlighted in the various strategies employed by teams. A successful steal or drawing an offensive foul can add significant value to a team. This is because they have not only gained possession but also reduced the opponent's expected efficiency from the potential points they could have scored to zero.
In college basketball, the possession arrow is used to determine which team gains possession in certain situations. This arrow is pointed towards the basket the team with possession is attacking. It alternates between teams to ensure fairness and speed up the game, especially when it is difficult to determine possession during held balls or when the ball goes out of bounds.
The concept of possession also extends to advanced metrics and analytics. Possession calculations are used to determine offensive and defensive efficiency. These calculations consider factors such as field goal attempts, rebounds, turnovers, and free throws. By adjusting the possession count to 100, analysts can gain meaningful insights into a team's performance and make comparisons.
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Possession arrow in college basketball
The possession arrow is a rule that differentiates college basketball from professional basketball. Officially known as the alternating-possession procedure, it is defined in the NCAA rulebook as "a method of putting the ball in play with a throw-in rather than a jump ball."
Every NCAA basketball game starts with a jump ball at center court. The possession arrow remains off until one team gains possession of the ball after the tip-off. Once that happens, it is turned on and points in the direction of the team that lost the opening tip. This team will be given the ball when the next alternating-possession situation occurs. Alternating-possession situations can include a held ball, a free-throw violation, or a technical foul, when no team is in control, and a live ball becoming wedged between the backboard and the rim.
If a game goes into overtime, the possession arrow is reset, and since overtime begins with a jump ball, the same format is followed as at the start of the game. If additional overtime periods are needed, the arrow will also be reset after the initial jump ball.
The possession arrow is used to determine which team will be awarded the throw-in to begin the second half. The arrow points in the direction of the basket the team is attacking. For example, if Team A has the arrow, it points toward the basket that Team A is shooting at. At halftime, the arrow is flipped to point toward the other basket since teams switch baskets at the half.
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Possession changes and analytics
In basketball analytics, the concept of ""per possession" or "per 100 possessions" has gained prominence. This involves calculating various metrics, such as pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency, relative to the number of possessions. By adjusting the possession count to 100, analysts can determine offensive and defensive efficiency numbers more easily. For example, an average offensive possession is worth about 1.1 points per possession. Therefore, a steal or drawing an offensive foul can increase your team's score by 1.1 points since you've reduced the opponent's possession efficiency from 1.1 points to 0 points.
The definition of possession has evolved, and a field goal attempt does not necessarily signify the end of a possession. Technical free-throws, for instance, are not considered possessions as they do not always result in a change of possession. To account for this, a 0.44 multiplier is used since approximately 44% of free throws result in possession changes. Additionally, a 0.96 multiplier accounts for offensive rebounds without officially recording an offensive rebound.
The possession arrow, specific to college basketball, is used to determine possession during alternating-possession situations, such as held balls, free-throw violations, or technical fouls. It points towards the basket the team is attacking. This rule speeds up the game and prevents potential injuries or mismatches that could occur during a jump ball. The arrow is reset during overtime, adhering to the same format as the start of the game.
Understanding possession changes and analytics provides valuable insights into a team's performance and helps identify areas for improvement. By analyzing possession data, coaches, players, and executives can make more informed decisions to enhance their gameplay and increase their chances of winning.
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Estimating pace and possessions
Possession is a key metric for understanding basketball analytics. Pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency metrics are all based on possession calculations. Estimating the pace and possessions of a basketball game involves considering various factors and using specific formulas.
Firstly, it's important to understand the concept of the possession arrow, which is used in college basketball to determine possession after an alternating-possession situation, such as a held ball or a free-throw violation. The arrow points in the direction of the basket the team is attacking. In the case of overtime, the possession arrow is reset, and the procedure starts with a jump ball.
To estimate the pace and possessions, we can use formulas that take into account both a team's statistics and their opponent's statistics. One formula for estimating possessions is:
5 * ((Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * Free Throw Attempts - 1.07 * (Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)) * (Field Goal Attempts - FG) + Turnovers) + (Opponent Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * Opponent Free Throw Attempts - 1.07 * (Opponent Offensive Rebounds / (Opponent Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds)) * (Opponent Field Goal Attempts - Opponent FG) + Opponent Turnovers))
In this formula, the 0.44 multiplier is applied to free throw attempts because not all free throws result in a change of possession. Technical foul shots and "AND 1" situations do not result in a change of possession, and there may be multiple free throws on a single possession.
To calculate pace, we can divide the number of possessions by the actual minutes of the game and then multiply by 40. This allows for comparisons between games that ended in regulation time and those that went into overtime.
By adjusting points and turnovers for pace, we can account for variations in game length due to overtime periods, transition opportunities, and possession length. Possession estimates and pace calculations provide valuable insights into a team's performance and strategy.
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What makes a good possession?
A good possession in basketball is one that is consistent within the framework of what you are trying to accomplish. It is about making the most of your chances and being able to make more shots as your season progresses. A good possession often starts with a strong initial attack on the defence, getting defenders back on their heels and giving the offence an edge. If the offence can't get an edge, the goal is to prevent the defence from getting one. A good possession ends with a good shot by a player who is in control.
The players and the ball are both moving, with ball reversals generally involved. Changing sides of the floor prevents the defence from getting entrenched. The offence is aggressive throughout the possession. Even passive defences have to be attacked.
In terms of basketball analytics, a good possession can be defined as one that ends in a score. However, this is not always the case, and it is possible to have a high percentage of good possessions that don't result in scores. A good possession can also be defined as one that starts and ends well, with a realistic chance of scoring at the end.
The concept of a possession arrow is used in college basketball to determine which team gets the ball when the next alternating-possession situation occurs. The arrow points in the direction of the basket the team is attacking. This rule is one of several that differentiate college basketball from professional basketball.
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