Kristian Ferrell
Underdog bets are a thrilling aspect of sports betting, and basketball is no exception. While the predictability of the NBA in recent years has made underdog wins less common, they still occur, and bettors are always on the lookout for the next big upset. The NBA offers a wide range of betting markets, from predicting the match winner to the total points scored. Bettors can choose between placing single-win bets or parlays, each with its own risks and rewards. With underdog wins, the challenge is to dig deep, do your research, and not simply rely on instincts. While underdog wins are less frequent in the NBA compared to other leagues, they still provide an exciting opportunity for bettors to cash in on a big payout.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Win percentage of underdogs in the last five full regular seasons | NBA: 1,532 |
| NFL: 212 | |
| MLB: 93 | |
| NHL: 93 | |
| NCAA Basketball: 7,487 | |
| NCAA Football: 1,677 | |
| Chances of winning if installed as an underdog of 35.5 points or more | 0.00785% |
| Chances of winning if installed as an underdog of 24.5 to 35 points | 2.1% |
| Chances of winning if installed as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points | 35.3% |
| Chances of winning if installed as an underdog of 3 points or less | 47.7% |
| Profitable NBA underdog teams | Portland Trail Blazers, Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Charlotte Hornets |
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What You'll Learn
Underdog wins in the NBA
Underdog wins are a thrilling aspect of sports betting, and the NBA is no exception. When it comes to underdog wins in the NBA, there are several factors and trends to consider.
Firstly, it's important to understand the betting landscape of the league. The NBA offers a wide range of betting options, from predicting the match winner to speculating on the total points scored by each team. While betting on the underdog coming out on top can be enticing, it's a risky move, and it's essential to weigh the odds carefully.
The NBA has seen its fair share of underdog victories. In the five years leading up to 2020, the NBA recorded 1,532 instances of underdogs of +300 or more closing, compared to 93 such instances combined in the MLB and NHL over the same period. This highlights the potential for upsets in the NBA, making it an attractive league for bettors seeking lucrative underdog bets.
When it comes to specific underdog wins in the NBA, several notable examples stand out. For instance, in 2020, Kansas State (+27.5) pulled off an impressive upset by defeating Oklahoma 38-35. Similarly, Maryland, despite being a +27 underdog, managed to stun Penn State. These upsets showcase the unpredictability of the NBA and the potential for lower-ranked teams to rise to the challenge and secure victories.
While underdog wins can be exciting, it's important to approach them with caution when betting. Single-win bets on underdogs may offer a guaranteed payout if successful, but they also increase your total outlay as you place more bets. On the other hand, parlay bets, which involve multiple selections, can boost your odds of a higher payout but carry the risk of losing the entire bet if even one selection fails to win. Therefore, it's crucial to carefully assess the risks and odds before placing any bets, especially when backing underdogs.
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Underdog wins in NCAA Basketball
When it comes to underdog wins in NCAA Basketball, there have been several notable upsets over the years. The NCAA Tournament, also known as March Madness, often sees underdog teams causing surprises and pulling off unexpected victories.
One of the biggest underdog stories in the tournament's history occurred in 1985 when the 15th-seeded Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts defeated the 2nd-seeded Ohio State in the Round of 64. Despite being 15-point underdogs, the Golden Eagles secured a thrilling 75-72 overtime win, becoming just the ninth 15-seed to win a first-round game.
Another memorable underdog victory was achieved by Middle Tennessee in the 2016 NCAA Tournament. As 17-point underdogs, they defeated the highly-favored Michigan State Spartans, who had just won the Big Ten Tournament, by a score of 90-81. This made Middle Tennessee only the eighth No. 15 seed to knock out a No. 2 seed since 1985.
In terms of overall statistics, it's challenging to pinpoint an exact percentage for underdog wins in NCAA Basketball due to the dynamic nature of the sport and various factors influencing the outcomes. However, when considering point spreads, it's evident that underdog victories do occur, and they add to the excitement and unpredictability of the game.
Some sources provide insights into underdog performances in NCAA Basketball. For instance, since 1997, there have been instances where underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points have pulled off outright upsets about 35.3% of the time. On the other hand, in a broader perspective that includes other sports leagues, NCAA Basketball stands out with a high number of underdogs of +300 or more in a five-year span, with 7,487 occurrences.
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Underdog wins in the NFL
Underdog wins are a thrilling aspect of sports betting, and the NFL has seen some notable upsets over the years. While the 2024 NFL season has been described as having an "unbelievably hot start" for underdogs, with some massive upsets, it's important to understand the broader context and historical trends.
Let's take a look at some specific examples and seasons. In 2024, the Patriots bested the Bengals as 8.5-point underdogs in Week 1, and the Vikings toppled the 49ers as 5.5-point underdogs in Week 2. These early-season upsets made betting on underdogs quite profitable. However, as the season progressed, the frequency of such significant upsets seemed to decrease, and wagering on underdogs became more challenging.
Looking at broader trends, data from 1997 to 2023 provides insight into underdog performance. During this period, there were 4,623 teams favoured by 3.5 to 7 points, and 1,632 of them pulled off outright upsets, translating to about 35.3% of the time. This means that upsets occurred once every 2.83 games. When the margin increased to 17.5 to 24 points, the upset rate dropped to 7.39%, with only 182 upsets out of 2,464 teams in this category.
Some of the most notable upsets in recent memory include Kansas State (+27.5) upsetting Oklahoma in 2020, Maryland (+27) upsetting Penn State in the same year, and Stanford (+41) upsetting USC in 2007. These upsets showcase the unpredictable nature of the game and the potential for thrilling victories by underdog teams.
While underdog wins in the NFL may be less frequent than in other sports like the NBA, they still occur and can be incredibly profitable for bettors who can identify these opportunities. It's important for bettors to do their research, understand the teams and their historical performance, and make informed decisions when considering underdog bets.
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Underdog wins in college football
Underdog wins are a thrilling aspect of sports, and college football is no exception. Since 1997, there have been several notable underdog victories in college football, showcasing the unpredictability and excitement of the game.
One of the most significant underdog wins in college football history occurred in 2017 when the Howard Bison defeated the UNLV Runnin Rebels by a margin of 43-40. The Rebels were initially favoured to win by 45.5 points, making Howard's last-minute victory a remarkable upset. This win by the Howard Bison is considered one of the biggest upsets in college football, showcasing the ability of underdog teams to rise to the challenge and make history.
Another notable underdog victory took place in 2020 when Kansas State, as underdogs by 27.5 points, upset Oklahoma with a final score of 38-35. Similarly, in the same year, Maryland, as underdogs by 27 points, pulled off an impressive upset against Penn State. These games highlight the unpredictability of college football, where even heavily favoured teams can fall to determined underdogs.
According to statistics, since 1997, there have been instances where underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points have pulled off outright upsets around 35.3% of the time, translating to one upset every 2.83 games. This data demonstrates that while underdog wins might be less frequent, they certainly occur and add a layer of excitement to the sport.
While exact numbers for underdog wins specifically in college football are scarce, it is evident that these victories occur and capture the imagination of fans and bettors alike. College football, with its varying performance levels and abilities across teams, provides the perfect setting for underdog stories, where lower-tier schools challenge high-ranked teams and come out on top, defying the odds and creating memorable moments in sports history.
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Betting strategies for underdog wins in basketball
Betting on the underdog can be one of the most profitable ways to make money from online sports betting. This is because betting odds are reflective of long-term head-to-heads as much as they are short-term, and sport is highly unpredictable.
The High Totals System
Sports-betting professional Allen Moody created the High Totals System, which is one of the easiest betting strategies to learn and apply. Moody discovered that sportsbooks often underestimate game totals for NBA non-conference games, so he would take the over on all games with an over/under of 220 total points. This strategy paid off 63.5% of the time from 2004-05 to 2008-09. While sportsbooks have become savvier, there is still value in taking the over in games with particularly high total-point projections.
The D'Alembert System
The D'Alembert System is less lucrative than the Martingale System but appeals to bettors with smaller bankrolls who are more risk-averse.
Moneyline Bets
Moneyline bets on underdogs are harder to win but yield more money. These bets are placed on the underdog winning the match outright.
Spread Bets
Spread bets require the underdogs to lose by a set number of points if they fail to win outright. These bets are strategically enticing to bettors as they come with high odds and high earning potential, but the house usually wins.
Other Tips
- When sportsbooks think bettors will back the favourite, they tend to offer a weak payout. So, whenever the odds get worse for the favourite, the odds for the underdog get better.
- Look for small underdog teams with excellent starting pitchers or players.
- Conduct extensive bet analysis on several different markets to place winning bets.
- The more profitable an underdog bet is, the higher the underdog win will be. So, look through different matches and find a few options that provide the most value.
- When evaluating profitability, multiply the odds given by your wager.
- To avoid losing, the best course of action is to limit your risk and make individual game bets rather than multi-leg parlay bets.
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Frequently asked questions
Underdog wins in basketball are not uncommon, but they vary depending on the level of underdog status. For instance, if a team is installed as an underdog by 35.5 points or more, they have a 0.00783% chance of winning. However, if a team is favoured by 3.5 to 7 points, the chance of an upset increases to 35.3%-35.4%.
Some of the biggest underdog wins in basketball include:
- Texas St (+36.5) over Houston in 2012
- Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998
- Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000
- James Madison (+35) over Virginia Tech in 2010
- North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997
- Kansas St (+27.5) upsetting Oklahoma in 2020
While betting on underdogs in basketball can be risky, there are strategies to consider. Single-win bets on underdogs guarantee a payout if the bet wins, but the total outlay increases with each additional bet. Parlays or Accas offer higher odds and payouts but require all selections to win, or the bet is lost.
