Andrew Pace
Basketball is a sport that involves a lot of shooting. Every year, NBA players take about 200,000 shots, and the shooting percentage has been flat or decreasing at all levels of competition. The NBA average free throw shooting percentage has been constant at about 75% since 1958, while the NCAA average is roughly 69%. To be a good player, it's important to master shooting off the catch and scoring at the basket, and adding a jump shot off the dribble can make you nearly unguardable. Shooting jump shots off the catch tends to be more effective than off the dribble, and this is true for both men and women players at the college level.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Number of shots taken by NBA players each year | 200,000 |
| Number of games played by 30 teams each season | 1,230 |
| Average points per shot according to shot location | 3-point shots: 36% |
| 10-foot shots: 40% | |
| National Basketball Association average free throw shooting percentage | 75% |
| NCAA average free throw shooting percentage | 69% |
| High School Players average free throw shooting percentage | 55-60% |
| Percentage of High School Players shooting with the wrong arc, shot depth or both | 91% |
| Percentage of jump shots off the catch that are more effective than off the dribble (WNBA) | 33% |
| Percentage of jump shots off the catch that are more effective than off the dribble (NBA) | 20% |
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What You'll Learn
NBA players take around 200,000 shots per year
This number does not include shots taken during practice or in players' personal time, which can be substantial. For example, Kobe Bryant is said to have shot around 1,000 practice shots per day, and Ray Allen is said to have taken 500 shots every day.
Considering that NBA players have been playing the game since a very young age, it is likely that some players have taken well over 1,000,000 shots in their lifetime, including their time in the NBA and practice shots. Some estimates put this number at 2,000,000 or even 10,000,000 shots.
The number of shots taken by NBA players in a year or over their lifetimes can vary greatly depending on factors such as playing time, practice regimen, and individual work ethic. However, it is clear that to reach the level of the NBA, a player must have put in a significant amount of time and effort into honing their shooting skills.
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Jump shots off the catch are more effective
Shooting off the catch should be a major part of players' workouts. This is especially true considering that 65% to 72% of jump shots are off the catch at the college level for both men and women. Therefore, if players want to get more playing time and increase their chances of getting recruited, they should focus on mastering shooting off the catch.
The "dip" is a technique used by many elite shooters, including Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Ray Allen, where they "dip" the basketball prior to shooting. This technique increases accuracy by mitigating some of the effects of distance, particularly for high school shooters. The "dip" will also become more important as the game of basketball moves to a "three and key" style of play, which emphasizes three-point shots.
When receiving a catch and shoot opportunity, players should be aware of the different catches they may receive and adjust their timing accordingly. Being contested when taking a jump shot speeds up shot timing by about 20ms, so players should always be aware of their defender and observe their tendencies.
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Free throw shooting percentages have been constant at 75% since 1958
Free throw shooting percentages have been a constant topic of discussion in basketball, especially at the professional level. Since 1958, the National Basketball Association (NBA) average free throw shooting percentage has remarkably remained constant at about 75%, a figure that many consider to be relatively low for the elite level. This consistency, or lack of improvement, over several decades, has puzzled analysts and coaches alike.
While the reasons behind this stagnant average are not entirely clear, it is worth noting that free throw shooting is an essential skill in basketball, with most players taking around 75% of their shots from the free-throw line. This high frequency of free throw attempts makes it a crucial factor in the outcome of games and, ultimately, the success of teams and individual players. A slight improvement in free throw percentage can significantly impact a player's value and a team's performance.
Some players have managed to stand out from the rest with their exceptional free throw shooting abilities. One such player is Steve Nash, widely considered the best free-throw shooter of all time. Nash averaged an impressive 90% at the line, showcasing an incredible mastery of muscle memory and shooting routine. Another notable player is Steph Curry, who, in addition to his renowned three-point shooting, excels at free throws. Curry attributes his success to repetition and maintaining the same form, coupled with a higher arc on his shots.
The Noah System, a training aid, has also shown promising results in improving free throw shooting percentages. It has helped players at various levels, from high school to college, increase their accuracy significantly. For instance, a Duke club basketball player achieved a remarkable 97% free-throw shooting average using the Noah System. These success stories highlight the potential for players to improve their free throw shooting and break away from the stagnant 75% average.
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91% of high school players shoot with the wrong arc
While a higher arc generally provides a larger surface area for the ball to pass through the hoop, it can also make it harder to control the distance and aim. A 45-degree entry angle is considered optimal by many, as it provides a good balance between the surface area and control. However, a single-degree difference in the arc can make a shot miss by up to two inches, and a 45-degree angle is difficult to achieve consistently.
Shooting with too high of an arc, such as 47 to 48 degrees or more, can be detrimental as it causes players to lose control of the depth of their shots. This can result in the ball missing short or bouncing out due to the steep angle of descent. On the other hand, a low arc reduces the surface area for the ball to enter the basket, making it less likely to go in and leaving little room for error, especially from longer distances.
Noah Basketball has tracked over 44 million shots and offers technology to help players improve their arc. Their system uses a sensor positioned above the basket to capture the ball's position 30 times per second, providing immediate feedback to players and allowing them to make real-time corrections.
Despite the general recommendation of a 45-degree entry angle, there are exceptions. For example, Ray Allen, an NBA player with one of the flattest shots, achieved a 40% 3-point field goal percentage over his career. However, most players can benefit from striving for the optimal arc to give themselves the best chance of success.
In high school basketball, only about 9% of players are shooting with the correct arc and depth. This means that 91% of high school players are not optimizing their shooting form, which could be hindering their potential. The correct arc and depth can vary depending on the player's height, strength, and other factors, but striving for the optimal conditions can help improve their shooting accuracy.
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Visualising points per shot reveals the economic landscape of the NBA
Visualising points per shot is a powerful tool to understand the complex and evolving economic landscape of the NBA. With around 200,000 shots taken each year, the NBA presents a treasure trove of data to be analysed and interpreted.
The introduction of spatial analysis and data visualisation has transformed the way we understand basketball analytics. By mapping shot locations, their frequency, and efficiency, we can uncover patterns and insights that were previously hidden. This allows us to see the economic implications of each shot and the broader strategy of the game.
Kirk Goldsberry, an ESPN analyst and contributor to FiveThirtyEight, has been at the forefront of this revolution. In his book, "SprawlBall: A Visual Tour of the New Era of the NBA", Goldsberry delves into the history of the NBA's 3-point line and how it has become a pivotal factor in the economic landscape of the game. By visualising the average points per shot according to location, we can identify the massive economic subsidy associated with the 3-point line.
For instance, 3-point shots have a success rate of 36%, while 10-foot shots are made 40% of the time. Yet, the former is assigned 50% more value. This discrepancy highlights a fascinating aspect of the contemporary NBA geography and the economic vision of Daryl Morey, challenging traditional notions of shot value and field-goal percentage.
The ability to visualise and interpret this data has far-reaching implications for the NBA. It influences everything from player scouting and development to team strategies and economic decisions. With visualisation tools becoming more accessible, fans and analysts alike can explore and understand the game on a deeper level, revealing the economic landscape that underpins the NBA.
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