Amanda Knapp
The NCAA men's basketball tournament is one of the most exciting events in the college sports calendar, with fans eagerly filling out brackets to predict the outcomes of the games. However, achieving a perfect bracket is an incredibly challenging feat, with the odds of success being as low as 1 in 28 billion. While many brackets come close to perfection, it is rare for any to remain perfect throughout the entire tournament. In 2025, the final perfect bracket fell during the second round, and in previous years, major upsets have often led to the early elimination of perfect brackets. With millions of brackets submitted each year, the quest for a perfect bracket continues to captivate fans, who eagerly anticipate the upsets and surprises that define the tournament.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Number of brackets submitted across major online games | 39 million |
| Number of brackets submitted for the Women's Bracket Challenge Game | 5 million |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining after the first day of the tournament | 25,802 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining after the Sweet 16 | 33 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining after No. 2 Duke beat No. 3 North Carolina | 19 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining after No. 1 South Carolina's win | 18 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining after No. 3 LSU's victory over No. 2 NC State | 9 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining after No. 3 Notre Dame's victory over No. 2 TCU | 8 |
| Number of perfect women's brackets remaining after No. 4 Gonzaga's victory over No. 5 Utah | 4 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining in ESPN's game after No. 3 Oregon State beat No. 2 Notre Dame | 1 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining in ESPN's game after No. 1 UCLA beat No. 3 LSU | 0 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining in ESPN's game after No. 1 USC beat No. 5 Kansas State | 1 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining in ESPN's game after No. 2 TCU's win over No. 3 Notre Dame | 0 |
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What You'll Learn
The odds of a perfect bracket
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket are extremely slim. If every game is considered a 50-50 coin flip, the odds of a perfect bracket are estimated to be 1 in 9.2 quintillion (9.2 billion billion or 10 to the 18th power). To put this into perspective, if every person on the planet (7.5 billion) started filling out a bracket per minute, it would take over 2,000 years to fill out 9.2 quintillion brackets.
However, the odds can be improved by incorporating NCAA men's basketball knowledge into the formula. According to late DePaul professor Jeff Bergen, the odds can be as low as 1 in 28 billion. Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol estimates that the best statistical models for predicting college basketball games are only about 75% accurate, which highlights the difficulty of achieving a perfect bracket.
The large number of entries also affects the odds of a perfect bracket. In 2024, there were more than 31 million entries in the major online men's games, and in 2025, there were approximately 39 million publicly available brackets submitted between the men's and women's tournaments. With so many entries, it becomes increasingly unlikely that all brackets will be busted before reaching perfection.
While the odds of a perfect bracket are incredibly low, it is technically possible, and upsets or unexpected wins can play a significant role in determining the fate of millions of brackets. For example, in 2024, No. 8 Utah State's win against No. 9 TCU busted all men's brackets on the 31st game, and in 2023, No. 16 FDU's stunning win over No. 1 Purdue was only the second time a 16 seed beat a 1 seed in men's history, busting the final verifiably perfect men's bracket.
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The closest to a perfect bracket
In 2024, ESPN's "Courtney's COURT 2" was the last perfect bracket standing after No. 1 South Carolina beat No. 4 Indiana in the Sweet 16. This was the only remaining perfect bracket out of more than 4 million entries across major online games.
In 2025, “LisaVT22's Picks 1” on ESPN was the last perfect bracket standing in the women's tournament. It remained perfect for 56 games, with just six games remaining in the tournament.
In 2019, Gregg Nigl, a neuropsychologist in Columbus, Ohio, picked the greatest known bracket in men's NCAA basketball history. Nigl's bracket was perfect through the first two rounds, with 39 consecutive correct picks.
While there have been several close calls, no one has ever picked a verified perfect NCAA men's bracket, and the odds of doing so are extremely low. The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are often reported as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, assuming that each game is a 50-50 coin flip. However, when NCAA men's basketball knowledge is taken into account, the odds improve to approximately 1 in 28 billion, according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen.
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The final perfect bracket
The road to the perfect bracket in men's basketball is a challenging one, with numerous factors to consider, from recent injuries to team momentum. Picking a perfect bracket is an extremely difficult task, with odds as low as 1 in 28 billion, according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen.
In the 2025 NCAA tournament, the final perfect bracket fell early, during the second round, which was the 43rd game of the tournament. The final bracket, named "#RoadToPerfection", was competing in ESPN's game. The last perfect bracket almost made it through the first round, but was ultimately busted by No. 8 Utah State's win against No. 9 TCU. This outcome not only ended the run of "#RoadToPerfection" but also busted all other remaining men's brackets, leaving none perfect.
While there were no perfect brackets left in 2025, there were some impressive runs at perfection. One notable instance was in 2019, when Gregg Nigl's bracket achieved perfection through the first two rounds. In 2024, "Courtney's COURT 2" in ESPN's Women's Tournament Challenge stood out with 50 correct picks in a row, an impressive feat.
The pursuit of the perfect bracket adds excitement to the men's basketball tournament each year. With careful analysis and a bit of luck, some brackets come remarkably close to perfection, even if achieving it remains an exceptionally rare feat.
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How to create a perfect bracket
Creating a perfect bracket in men's basketball is an incredibly challenging task. The odds of achieving this feat are as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, according to some estimates. Nevertheless, here are some tips to help you create a perfect bracket:
Understand the Basics
First, familiarize yourself with the format of the tournament. In men's basketball, teams are placed within a "'bracket,"' where they face off in single-elimination games based on their seeding. The seeding generally indicates a team's strength, with lower seeds representing stronger teams. Understanding the rules and format of the tournament is crucial before attempting to create a perfect bracket.
Do Your Research
Before making your predictions, it's essential to research the teams and players thoroughly. Study the teams' records, performance statistics, and player rosters. Look for standout players or teams with a strong winning streak. Consider factors such as injuries, coaching strategies, and historical performance in similar tournaments. The more knowledge you have, the better your chances of making accurate predictions.
Consider Upsets and Underdogs
In any tournament, upsets are inevitable. Keep in mind that lower-seeded teams can sometimes pull off surprising victories against higher-seeded opponents. While it's important to trust your research and favor stronger teams, don't be afraid to predict an occasional upset. Analyze the teams' momentum, player motivation, and historical data to identify potential underdog stories.
Stay Informed During the Tournament
As the tournament progresses, stay updated on the results and team performances. Pay attention to which teams are exceeding expectations and which are falling behind. This information can help you fine-tune your predictions for the remaining games and make more informed decisions for the later rounds.
Join Online Communities
Engage with other basketball enthusiasts and bracket predictors through online communities and forums. Discuss strategies, share insights, and learn from the predictions of others. Many websites offer bracket challenges and allow you to compare your bracket with others. This can provide valuable perspectives and help you identify potential blind spots in your own bracket.
Manage Risk and Make Bold Choices
Creating a perfect bracket requires a balance between calculated risks and bold choices. While it's important to make educated predictions, don't be afraid to go against the grain occasionally. Sometimes, taking a chance on an underdog or predicting an unexpected outcome can set your bracket apart. Remember, the odds of a perfect bracket are extremely slim, so embrace the challenge and enjoy the process.
While following these tips can enhance your chances of creating a strong bracket, it's important to remember that perfection is incredibly difficult to achieve. Even brackets created by sports analysts and experts rarely achieve perfection. So, embrace the excitement of March Madness, enjoy the games, and don't be too hard on yourself if your predictions don't always pan out.
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The longest-lasting perfect bracket
The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion. According to the late DePaul professor Jeff Bergen, if NCAA men's basketball knowledge is factored in, the odds of a perfect bracket can be as low as 1 in 28 billion.
The longest streak of correct picks in an NCAA tournament bracket is 49, a record set in 2019 by Gregg Nigl. Nigl's "Center Road" bracket was the only perfect March Madness bracket left after Texas Tech beat Buffalo. The bracket survived multiple scares, including the Tennessee overtime win and Duke's escape over UCF. However, it suffered its first loss when Purdue beat Tennessee 99-94 in overtime in the 50th game of the tournament.
Before Nigl's record-breaking run, the longest streak of correct picks in an NCAA tournament bracket was 39, achieved in 2017. In 2022, all brackets were busted on the first Friday of the tournament when Iowa State upset LSU. In 2021, monumental upsets caused all remaining perfect brackets to bust on the 28th game. In 2020, the NCAA tournament was cancelled due to COVID-19.
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Frequently asked questions
None. The final perfect bracket fell in the second round, the 43rd game of the tournament, when No. 3 Kentucky topped No. 6 Illinois.
There were 25,802 perfect brackets remaining after the first day of the tournament. However, by the Sweet 16, there was only one perfect bracket left: "Courtney's COURT 2" in ESPN's Women's Tournament Challenge.
The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket can be as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion. If you take NCAA men's basketball knowledge into the formula, the odds can be as low as 1 in 28 billion.
