Andrew Pace
While March Madness is a great opportunity to spot young basketball talent, only a small fraction of college basketball players go on to play professionally. In a study by the NCAA in April 2020, it was found that of the 540,769 male high school basketball players, only 3.5% moved on to play in college, and only 1% played for Division 1 schools. The odds of reaching the pros are even more daunting, with only 1.2% of NCAA athletes making it to the NBA. Similarly, female high school athletes have slightly better odds of making it to the NCAA than males, but a smaller percentage will become professionals due to the smaller number of teams and rosters in the WNBA. Despite these challenges, March Madness features several NBA prospects each year, and while they may not be drafted among the first few picks, they still have a chance to shine and solidify their draft positions.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Percentage of male high school basketball athletes who moved on to play in college | 3.5% |
| Percentage of male high school basketball athletes who moved on to play in Division 1 colleges | 1% |
| Percentage of male college basketball athletes who make the jump from the NCAA to the NBA | 1.2% |
| Percentage of female high school basketball athletes who moved on to play in college | 4.1% |
| Percentage of female high school basketball athletes who moved on to play in Division 1 colleges | 1.3% |
| Percentage of female college basketball athletes who make the jump from the NCAA to the WNBA | 0.8% |
| Number of top 5 players in the 2023 NBA draft who came directly from college | 1 |
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What You'll Learn
- NCAA players rarely get drafted among the first few picks
- UConn's Donovan Clingan is a potential first-round prospect
- Duke's Kyle Filipowski was a likely first-round pick last year
- Colorado forward Cody Williams could be the first college player drafted this year
- Only 1.2% of NCAA male basketball players make it to the NBA
NCAA players rarely get drafted among the first few picks
While March Madness features several NBA prospects, it is unlikely that they will be drafted among the first few picks. This trend is also observed in the NFL Draft, where blue-chip recruits (four- and five-star prospects) predominantly occupy the first-round selections. In the last five years, 65% of first-round picks were blue-chip recruits, with Texas, Florida, Georgia, and California being the biggest producers of NFL players.
The NCAA Tournament may not be the best place to look for the top prospects in the upcoming NBA draft. For instance, in the previous year's draft, only one of the top five players was directly from college, with the remaining picks going to international players. This year's draft projections follow a similar pattern, with international players like Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr predicted to be among the first picks.
Although March Madness players may not be selected among the first few picks, some still have a strong chance of being drafted. For example, Colorado forward Cody Williams, the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams, is a potential first-round pick. UConn's Donovan Clingan and Duke's Jared McCain are also considered first-round prospects.
The NCAA grants an extra year of eligibility to all players, which can impact draft results and recruiting rankings. Additionally, the transfer portal and conference realignment have altered the landscape of college basketball and football. Despite these changes, recruits continue to prioritize reaching the NFL or NBA in their decision-making.
In conclusion, while March Madness showcases many talented players with professional potential, they are less likely to be drafted among the first few picks. This trend is influenced by the presence of highly-ranked recruits and international players who often take priority in the early selections. Nonetheless, March Madness participants still have a significant opportunity to be drafted later in the selection process.
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UConn's Donovan Clingan is a potential first-round prospect
While March Madness features several NBA prospects, they usually don't get drafted among the first few picks. For instance, in the 2023 draft, only one of the top five players came directly from college, with the Charlotte Hornets selecting Alabama's Brandon Miller as the second overall pick. There are similar forecasts for the 2024 draft, with international players Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr projected as top picks.
However, UConn's Donovan Clingan is a notable exception, as he is considered a potential first-round prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft. Clingan, a 7-foot-2 center with a 7-foot-7 wingspan, is touted for his immense potential as a defender, especially around the rim. His length and mobility allow him to cover a lot of space and move adeptly for his height and weight, making him one of the best rim protectors in college basketball. Offensively, while Clingan is relatively limited, he is a strong finisher inside with good touch for his size.
Clingan's interior scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking abilities were evident during his freshman year at UConn, where he averaged 13.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks, contributing to the Huskies' 2023 National Championship victory. In high school, he averaged an impressive 30.3 points, 18.4 rebounds, and 6.2 blocks, earning him the title of Gatorade Player of the Year twice.
While Clingan's raw numbers may not stand out, his impact on the court is undeniable. His ability to establish position in the paint and seal off his defender makes him a constant threat near the basket. However, to solidify his draft stock, Clingan will need to extend his offensive range and improve his free-throw shooting, as the modern NBA requires centers to provide floor spacing and knock down perimeter shots.
Overall, Clingan's defensive prowess, mobility, and efficient scoring make him a highly sought-after prospect. His performance during March Madness will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in solidifying his standing as a potential first-round selection in the upcoming NBA Draft.
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Duke's Kyle Filipowski was a likely first-round pick last year
While March Madness is a great platform for showcasing basketball talent, it is rare for players to be drafted among the first few picks. Duke's Kyle Filipowski was an exception to this, regarded as a likely first-round pick if he had entered the 2023 NBA Draft. However, he chose to return for his sophomore season, aiming to improve his draft stock and avenge a second-round March Madness exit.
Standing at 7 feet tall, Filipowski is a forward with a decorated college basketball career at Duke. He was the ACC tournament's most valuable player as a freshman and a second-team All-American as a sophomore. During his two seasons, he started all 72 games, posting consecutive 27-9 records and leading the team in scoring and rebounding in both years. He showcased a well-rounded game, improving his overall and 3-point shooting percentages while also reducing his turnovers. His playmaking abilities evolved, as evidenced by an increase in his assist averages.
Despite his impressive college career, there were concerns about Filipowski's measurements at the scouting combine, which may have contributed to him not being selected in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft. He was eventually selected by the Utah Jazz as the 32nd overall pick in the second round. Filipowski's skills, including his ability to stretch the floor, protect the paint, and make plays, will undoubtedly make him a valuable asset for the Jazz.
While Filipowski was not a first-round pick, his selection by the Utah Jazz demonstrates the impact of March Madness in showcasing the talent of college basketball players. It provides a platform for players to gain exposure and attract the attention of NBA scouts, even if they may not be among the first few picks.
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Colorado forward Cody Williams could be the first college player drafted this year
While March Madness features several NBA prospects, they typically don't get drafted among the first few picks. For instance, in last year's draft, only one of the top five players came directly from college, with the Charlotte Hornets selecting Alabama's Brandon Miller as the second overall pick. Similar forecasts exist for this year's draft, with international players like Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr projected to be top picks.
However, Colorado forward Cody Williams, a freshman, has a chance to be the first college player drafted this year. Williams, a five-star recruit, is the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams, who was the 12th overall pick in 2022. While his statistics aren't overwhelming, he boasts a field goal percentage of 55.2% and a three-point percentage of 40% while playing exceptional defense. He averaged 11.9 points and three rebounds per game, and his athleticism and potential have led to projections of him being a lottery pick. ESPN even projected him as the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Williams' size, length, passing instincts, and defensive skills make him an intriguing prospect. He has also showcased his versatility, contributing in multiple areas like rebounds, assists, and steals. Standing at 6 feet 8 inches, he has the physical tools to succeed at the next level.
Although Williams hasn't been playing due to a wrist injury, he is expected to return soon. His talent and potential have created a lot of hype, and he could be the first one-and-done player during the Boyle era at Colorado. If drafted in the top three, he would tie Chauncey Billups as the highest-drafted player in the school's history.
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Only 1.2% of NCAA male basketball players make it to the NBA
While many young basketball players dream of making it to the NBA, the reality is that only a small percentage will ever achieve this goal. According to a study conducted by the NCAA in April 2020, of the 540,769 male high school basketball players in the United States, only 18,816 (or 3.5%) go on to play at the collegiate level. This number decreases further when narrowed down to Division I schools, with only 1% of male athletes playing for a Division I team.
However, the odds of making it to the NBA are even more daunting. Of the 18,816 male college basketball players, only 1.2% will make the jump to the professional league. This means that out of the thousands of high school basketball players, only a handful will ever realize their dream of playing in the NBA.
The NCAA's March Madness tournament, which features 68 teams, is often seen as a showcase for potential NBA talent. While some players may emerge as future stars, the reality is that most will not be drafted among the first few picks. This is because the NBA draft only has 60 selections each year, and many players who do make it to the league are not drafted but instead find their way through the G League or other development paths.
Despite the odds, there are always a few players who stand out during March Madness and solidify their draft positions. For example, in 2023, Alabama freshman Brandon Miller and Baylor guard Keyonte George were expected to be top 10 picks in the NBA draft. In 2024, potential first-round picks included UConn's Castle and center Donovan Clingan, and Duke's Kyle Filipowski and Jared McCain.
While the road to the NBA is challenging, with only a small percentage of college players making it to the league, March Madness can be a stepping stone for those with the talent and determination to pursue their professional basketball dreams.
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Frequently asked questions
Out of thousands of male athletes who play basketball in high school, only 3.5% move on to play in college. That number shrinks to 1% when you specify Division 1 schools. Of those, only 1.2% make the jump from the NCAA to the NBA. While several players from March Madness are usually drafted to the NBA, they are unlikely to be among the first few picks.
Female high school athletes have a slightly larger chance of making it to the NCAA than males, with 4.1% of female high school basketball players going on to play in college. However, the number is smaller when it comes to going pro, with only 0.8% of NCAA athletes making it to the WNBA.
In 2024, Brandon Miller from Alabama was the only player drafted among the top five picks in the NBA draft. UConn's Donovan Clingan and Colorado's Cody Williams were also mentioned as potential first-round prospects in the 2024 NBA draft.
The odds of being drafted in the first round of the NBA draft are extremely slim. While the exact odds are unknown, only a handful of players are selected in the first round each year, with most teams having two picks each.
