Andrew Pace
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket are about 1 in 9.2 quintillion, according to math professors. That's if every game was a 50-50 coin flip. When NCAA men's basketball knowledge is factored in, the odds of a perfect bracket can be as low as 1 in 28 billion. As of March 2025, there were 25,802 perfect brackets remaining out of 24 million on ESPN. In 2024, there were 4 perfect women's brackets remaining 48 games into the tournament, out of more than 4 million entries.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket | 1 in 9.2 quintillion |
| Odds of a perfect bracket if every game was a 50-50 coin flip | 1 in 28 billion |
| Odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket | 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 |
| Odds of a perfect bracket according to Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol | Between 1 in 10 billion and 1 in 40 billion |
| Number of brackets remaining out of 24 million on ESPN on March 21, 2025 | 25,802 |
| Number of brackets remaining after No. 1 South Carolina's win over No. 4 Maryland in 2025 | 18 |
| Number of brackets remaining after No. 2 Duke beat No. 3 North Carolina in 2025 | 19 |
| Number of brackets remaining after No. 1 USC's win over No. 5 Kansas State in 2025 | 9 |
| Number of brackets remaining after No. 2 TCU's win over No. 3 Notre Dame in 2025 | 1 |
| Number of brackets remaining after No. 3 Oregon State's win over No. 2 Notre Dame in 2024 | 1 |
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What You'll Learn
- The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion
- In 2025, 0.0188% of brackets remained perfect after Day 1
- An Ohio man predicted the 2019 NCAA tournament, a rare feat
- In 2024, ESPN's Courtney's COURT 2 got the first 50 games correct
- The odds of a perfect bracket are 23% less than picking a grain of sand at random
The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA basketball bracket are often stated as 1 in 9.2 quintillion. This assumes that each game is a coin flip, with both teams having an equal chance of winning. In reality, upsets and differences in team skill levels mean that this is not always the case, and the true odds of a perfect bracket are likely better than 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
The number 9.2 quintillion refers to the total number of possible bracket combinations. If each game in a 63-game tournament is a coin flip, the number of possible outcomes is 2^63, or 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (9.2 quintillion). While it is possible to have a perfect bracket for a period of time, the odds of maintaining perfection throughout the entire tournament are incredibly slim. To put it in perspective, you are over 200 times more likely to win the Powerball lottery than to have a perfect bracket, and your chances of picking a random grain of sand out of the 7.5 quintillion grains of sand on Earth are 23% better than your odds of filling out a perfect bracket.
Despite the long odds, some people have come remarkably close to achieving perfection. In 2019, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio named Gregg Nigl correctly predicted the first 49 games of the NCAA tournament, shattering the previous record of 39 games set in 2017. Nigl's bracket was the first verified bracket ever to pick through to the Sweet 16 correctly, and his streak is considered the best in bracket history. However, no one has ever achieved a perfect bracket, and mathematicians have deemed it a nearly impossible feat.
The odds of a perfect bracket can be improved by using knowledge of the sport and the teams involved. According to the late DePaul professor Jeff Bergen, if you take NCAA men's basketball knowledge into the formula, the odds of picking a perfect bracket can be as low as 1 in 28 billion. Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol has also worked on a statistical model to predict college basketball games, stating that the best models today are right only about three-quarters of the time. Using a model that predicts regular-season games correctly 75% of the time would give you odds of getting a perfect bracket anywhere between 1 in 10 billion to 1 in 40 billion, a significant improvement over the 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds of a coin flip.
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In 2025, 0.0188% of brackets remained perfect after Day 1
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket are about 1 in 9.2 quintillion, according to estimates. That's if every game were a 50-50 coin flip. However, if you take NCAA men's basketball knowledge into the formula, the odds of a perfect bracket can be as low as 1 in 28 billion. The chances of achieving a perfect bracket are so slim that math professors have deemed it "nearly impossible."
In 2025, millions of brackets were tracked across major online games to see how long they could remain perfect in the NCAA men's and women's basketball tournaments. After Day 1 of the men's March Madness tournament, which featured a 16-game slate, less than 1% of brackets remained perfect. Specifically, 0.0188% of brackets, or 25,802 out of 24 million on ESPN, remained perfect. This was a remarkable feat, given the incredibly high odds against a perfect bracket.
The previous year, in 2024, the final perfect bracket was busted in the 40th game. In 2023, the final perfect bracket fell in the 31st game. Going further back, in 2022, all brackets busted on the first Friday of the tournament, and in 2021, all perfect brackets were busted by the 28th game.
On the women's side in 2025, the bracket "Courtney's COURT 2" in ESPN's Women's Tournament Challenge was the last perfect bracket standing after Friday's action, with nine brackets remaining perfect out of more than 4 million entries. However, No. 2 TCU's win over No. 3 Notre Dame eliminated eight of those nine brackets, leaving just one perfect bracket remaining.
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An Ohio man predicted the 2019 NCAA tournament, a rare feat
The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are incredibly slim—as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, according to some estimates. Even when accounting for NCAA men's basketball knowledge, the odds are still as low as 1 in 28 billion. Given these odds, it's no surprise that creating a perfect bracket is considered a nearly impossible feat. However, in 2019, an Ohio man named Gregg Nigl achieved this rare feat by correctly predicting the entire NCAA tournament into the Sweet 16.
Nigl, a 40-year-old neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, entered his bracket, dubbed "center road," into the Capital One NCAA March Madness Bracket Challenge game. His bracket correctly predicted the first 49 games of the tournament before suffering its first loss in the second game of the Sweet 16 when Purdue beat Tennessee in overtime. This shattered the previous record of 39 straight correct picks, which had been achieved in 2017.
Nigl's accomplishment is even more remarkable when considering the sheer number of brackets created each year. Tens of millions of brackets are tracked annually, and in 2019, there were approximately 60,000 perfect brackets after the first day of the tournament. However, by the time the tournament reached the Sweet 16, "center road" was the only remaining perfect bracket. This highlighted the extreme difficulty of crafting a perfect bracket, as even a small number of incorrect predictions can quickly eliminate a bracket from contention.
The odds of creating a perfect bracket are so minuscule that it's significantly more likely to win the Powerball lottery. Despite this, the pursuit of perfection persists among basketball fans, with many still striving to achieve the elusive perfect bracket each year. While it may be incredibly difficult, Nigl's achievement in 2019 proves that it is not entirely impossible, providing hope to those who continue to chase the dream of bracket perfection.
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In 2024, ESPN's Courtney's COURT 2 got the first 50 games correct
Even with these slim odds, there have been some impressive streaks of correct predictions in the past. In 2019, an Ohio man correctly predicted the entire tournament into the Sweet 16, an achievement that had not been seen in years of tracking publicly verifiable online brackets. In 2017, Gregg Nigl came close to achieving perfection with his "center road" bracket, which correctly predicted the first 49 games of the 2019 tournament before finally busting in game 50.
Courtney's COURT 2, with its 50-game streak, is among the brackets with the longest streaks of correct predictions. While it didn't quite reach the perfection of predicting all 63 or 64 games correctly, it still stands as an impressive achievement, outperforming millions of other brackets.
The challenge of creating a perfect bracket is part of the allure of NCAA bracketology. Each year, millions of people eagerly track their brackets, hoping to make correct predictions and beat the overwhelming odds. While it may be a daunting task for newcomers, it is a fun tradition for many college basketball enthusiasts.
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The odds of a perfect bracket are 23% less than picking a grain of sand at random
The odds of crafting a perfect bracket for the NCAA basketball tournament are incredibly slim. With 68 teams facing off in a series of matchups, the number of possible outcomes and variables makes it extremely difficult to predict the outcome of every game correctly. In fact, the odds of a perfect bracket are estimated to be 1 in 9.2 quintillion if each game is considered a 50-50 coin flip. To put this into perspective, this is like trying to pick a grain of sand at random from all the sand on Earth. And even with basketball knowledge factored in, the odds only improve slightly to 1 in 28 billion, according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen.
The difficulty of creating a perfect bracket is further illustrated by the fact that, as of 2025, no one has achieved a verifiably perfect bracket in the history of the NCAA tournament. While some brackets have come close, such as Gregg Nigl's "center road" bracket in 2019, which correctly predicted the first 49 games, eventually, an upset or an underdog victory derails even the best brackets. This is supported by Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol's statistical model, which predicts college basketball games with only a 75% accuracy rate, indicating that about a quarter of tournament games are upsets.
The vast number of possible bracket combinations also contributes to the challenge. Math professors, including John Harris of Furman University, have stated that the odds of creating a perfect bracket are "less than one billionth of a percent" of all possible combinations. For example, in 2025, 25 million brackets were created on a popular site, yet none remained perfect after the first round. This means that even with millions of people participating, the chances of any one person creating a perfect bracket are incredibly low.
While it may seem like a daunting task, it's not impossible to improve your odds and come closer to that perfect bracket. Historical matchups, passing networks, and understanding underdog dynamics can all provide valuable insights. Additionally, models like CBS Sportsline's bracket projection model simulate each game thousands of times to optimize prediction accuracy. However, even with these strategies, the odds of a perfect bracket remain extraordinarily low, making it a challenging feat for even the most knowledgeable and strategic basketball fans.
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Frequently asked questions
As of 2025, there are nine perfect brackets left in the NCAA women's basketball tournament.
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket are about 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 or 9.2 quintillion.
No perfect NCAA bracket has lasted through the first round on Friday night. However, an Ohio man correctly predicted the entire 2019 NCAA tournament into the Sweet 16.
The longest streak of correct picks in the NCAA tournament was 49 games, achieved by Gregg Nigl in 2019.
Typically, around 94% of the millions of brackets entered into the Bracket Challenge Game are unique.
