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Defensive rating is a statistic used in basketball to quantify a player's defensive contributions by showing how many points they concede per 100 possessions. It is calculated using the number of opponent's interrupted actions, or 'stops', which include blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, forced turnovers and forced misses. This statistic allows for the comparison of points scored and conceded by teams that play at different paces, providing an understanding of the quality of a game. It is also used to judge a player's defensive worth and impact, alongside other defensive stats such as steals and blocks.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Calculation of Stops | (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2 |
| Calculation of Stop% | (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP) |
| Individual Defensive Rating calculation | DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating) |
| Individual Offensive Rating calculation | Points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions |
| Total Possessions calculation | Scoring Possessions + Missed FG Possessions + Missed FT Possessions + Turnovers |
| Scoring Possessions formula | (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part |
| Net Rating | The difference between Offensive and Defensive Ratings |
| Steal Percentage | The percentage of an opponent's possessions that end up with the player stealing the ball, provided that the player is on the court during the possession |
| Defensive Win Shares | A metric that takes all facets of the defensive game into account and is tempo-free; scaled so that one DWS equals one win added to the player's team's record |
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What You'll Learn
Calculating individual defensive ratings
Defensive Rating is a statistic that quantifies a player's defensive contributions by showing how many points they concede per 100 possessions. This statistic differs from a simple plus/minus system, where all points scored while a player is on the court count against them. Only the points that are scored as a result of their defensive lapses are counted against the player in question.
The individual Defensive Rating is based on the calculation of the intermediate data defined by Dean Oliver as Stop. Stop is the number of an opponent's interrupted actions. This term is defined by two elements, each dependent on various contributions. The first, Stop1, depends on the terms found on the box score; the second, Stop2, is dependent on "hidden" terms and requires a longer calculation.
The formula for Stop1 is:
> (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2
The formula for Stop2 is:
> Stops2 = Stop1 + (((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP) * MP)
Once Stop1 and Stop2 have been calculated, the next step is to determine the Stop percentage. This is the number of a player's stopped actions compared to the total number of opposing actions. This term is defined as Stop% and is calculated with the following formula:
> Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)
With Stop% calculated, we can now calculate the individual Defensive Rating:
> DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)
Defensive Rating is a useful statistic for comparing the defensive abilities of players. However, it is important to consider other defensive statistics such as steals and blocks to get a full picture of a player's defensive impact.
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The importance of defensive stats
Defensive statistics are an important aspect of basketball analytics, providing valuable insights into a team's performance and individual players' contributions. They offer a more nuanced understanding of the game beyond just the final score or basic box scores.
One key defensive metric is the defensive rating, which indicates how many points a player allows per 100 possessions. This statistic is valuable as it isolates a player's defensive performance, unlike a simple plus/minus system that attributes all points scored while a player is on the court. By examining defensive ratings, coaches and analysts can identify players who effectively limit their opponents' scoring and make timely defensive plays.
Defensive Win Shares (DWS) is another significant metric. It takes into account all facets of a player's defensive game and is tempo-free, meaning it adjusts for the team's pace of play. DWS is scaled so that one unit is equivalent to one win added to the team's record, making it a powerful tool for evaluating a player's defensive impact on the team's success.
Other defensive stats like steals, blocks, and rebounds also play a crucial role in evaluating defensive prowess. For instance, steal percentage calculates the frequency of steals relative to an opponent's possessions, providing a more accurate assessment than raw steal counts. Block percentage, similarly, quantifies a player's effectiveness in blocking shots during each of the team's possessions, irrespective of the pace of play.
While defensive stats are undoubtedly valuable, they should be interpreted carefully and in conjunction with other metrics. For example, a low Defensive Field Goal Percentage may be insignificant if the team excels in rebounding. Additionally, stats like steals and blocks should be considered alongside positional awareness and defensive strategy to fully evaluate a player's defensive capabilities.
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The limitations of defensive rating
Defensive Rating is a valuable tool in basketball, providing an individual player's efficiency at preventing the opposing team from scoring points. It is a key measure of team defense and can indicate overall team success. However, it does have some limitations.
Firstly, it does not account for pace or volume. The pace of play can influence statistics, and a player's defensive rating may be impacted by the team's overall pace. A slower pace may result in fewer possessions, which could affect the defensive rating calculation.
Secondly, individual defensive ratings are influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. The defensive rating assumes that all teammates are equally effective at forcing turnovers and misses, which may not be accurate. It also assumes that all teammates face the same number of possessions per minute, which may not account for varying levels of defensive involvement.
Additionally, defensive ratings do not capture the full complexity of basketball. While they provide valuable insights, they should be considered alongside other factors such as offensive ratings, usage rates, and skill curves. For example, a player's defensive rating may be impacted by their teammates' offensive performance, as a higher number of possessions could lead to more defensive opportunities.
Defensive ratings are also influenced by the opposition's performance. A player's defensive rating may be impacted by the skill level of their opponents, the pace at which they play, and the number of shots they take.
Lastly, defensive ratings are calculated based on a combination of observed and estimated data. While steals and blocks are tracked, other factors such as forced turnovers and forced misses are estimated, introducing a potential source of inaccuracy.
Despite these limitations, defensive ratings offer valuable insights into team performance and defensive quality. They provide a standardized metric to compare players and teams, contributing to a deeper understanding of the complexities of NBA basketball.
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Defensive rating vs. defensive efficiency
Defensive rating and defensive efficiency are both basketball statistics that measure an individual player's efficiency at preventing the opposing team from scoring points. The defensive rating is also referred to as defensive efficiency.
The defensive rating or defensive efficiency of a player is calculated using the following formula:
> Defensive Player Rating = (Player's Steals * Blocks) + Opponents Differential = 1/5 of possessions - Times blown by + Deflections * OAPDW (Official Adjusted Players Defensive Withstand)
The defensive rating statistic was created by author and statistician Dean Oliver in his 2004 book, "Basketball on Paper". Oliver also introduced the concept of "Skill Curves", which acknowledges that a player's offensive rating (ORtg) should be judged in conjunction with their usage rate, or how big a role the player has in their team's offense. The bigger the role, the more challenging it is to maintain a high ORtg, and vice versa.
Defensive ratings are influenced by the team's defensive efficiency, assuming that all teammates are equally effective at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, and face the same number of total possessions per minute. The defensive rating is calculated per 100 possessions, and only counts the points scored as a result of a player's defensive lapses.
The defensive rating, along with the offensive rating, are efficiency metrics that provide valuable information about a team's performance. They allow for a uniform comparison of offensive and defensive skills, highlighting the playing quality, such as an offensive game with few turnovers and good shooting percentages.
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How to interpret defensive rating
Defensive rating, or defensive efficiency, is a statistic used in basketball to measure an individual player's efficiency at preventing the opposing team from scoring points. It was created by Dean Oliver in his 2004 book, Basketball on Paper. The defensive rating is calculated as the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. This statistic works differently from a simple plus/minus system, where all points scored while a player is on the court count against them. Only the points that are scored as a result of their defensive lapses are counted against them.
Defensive ratings allow us to understand the team's defensive quality, which is not possible with the score alone. The pace of the game influences all the statistics, especially the score. Therefore, redistributing the points over 100 possessions is important for a uniform comparison of offensive and defensive skills.
Defensive ratings are influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute. Defensive Win Shares (DWS) is another metric that takes all facets of the defensive game into account and is tempo-free. The metric is scaled so that one DWS is equal in value to one win added to the player's team's record.
Defensive ratings should be interpreted in conjunction with a player's usage rate, which measures how big a role the player fills in the team's offense. The bigger the role, the more difficult it is to maintain a high defensive rating. Therefore, a player's defensive rating should be compared to those of other players in similar roles.
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Frequently asked questions
Defensive rating is a statistic that measures the number of points a player allows per 100 possessions.
Defensive rating is calculated using the number of opponent's interrupted actions, also known as "stops". This includes steals, blocks, defensive rebounds, forced turnovers and forced misses. The formula for defensive rating takes into account the team's defensive efficiency and assumes that all teammates are equally effective at forcing turnovers and misses.
A "good" defensive rating is one that is lower than the league average. The league-wide average number of points scored per game in the 2019-2020 season was 111.8 points per 100.3 possessions. Therefore, a defensive rating of around 111.47 would be considered approximately average.
