Ayrton Oneill
Possession is a fundamental aspect of basketball that significantly impacts the game's flow and outcome. It refers to when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball, and it is crucial for understanding basketball analytics. Possession in basketball is defined by the NBA as Section XVIII-Team Possession, and it plays a vital role in calculating various metrics such as pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. The possession arrow, a rule unique to college basketball, dictates which team gains possession after a jump ball or in alternating-possession situations. Understanding the intricacies of possession in basketball is essential for players, coaches, and analysts to make informed decisions and develop effective strategies.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition of possession | A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. |
| Possession ends | When the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt. |
| Possession arrow | A rule that differentiates college basketball from professional basketball. It is used to determine which team gets possession of the ball after a jump ball without having to jump for it. |
| Jump ball | When two teams center on two players jumping for the ball. This can happen at the beginning of a game, after halftime, or when called by a referee during the game. |
| Possession calculation | (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO) or (FGA + 0.475 * FTA - ORB + TO), where FGA = field goal attempts, FTA = free throw attempts, TO = turnovers, and ORB = offensive rebounds. |
| Possession analytics | "Per 100 possessions" analytics are commonly used to understand pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. |
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What You'll Learn
Possession arrow
The possession arrow is a rule in basketball that determines which team gets the ball following a jump ball. It is officially known as the alternating-possession procedure and is used in college basketball to put the ball in play with a throw-in rather than a jump ball. This rule comes into play during alternating-possession situations, such as a held ball, a free-throw violation, or a technical foul.
The possession arrow is turned on after one team gains possession of the ball during the initial tip-off, and it points in the direction of the team that lost the opening tip. This team is then given the ball during the next alternating-possession situation. The arrow is reset if the game goes into overtime, which also begins with a jump ball. If additional overtime periods are required, the arrow is reset again after the initial jump ball.
The possession arrow is also reversed if a player touches and causes the ball to go out of bounds or if the team with possession commits a throw-in violation. In this case, the team that didn't get the ball initially will be awarded possession in the next situation. Additionally, the arrow is changed prior to the start of the second half to account for the teams switching ends of the court.
The possession arrow is a unique feature of college basketball, differentiating it from professional basketball. It helps to ensure fairness in situations where possession is unclear or contested, allowing for a smooth transition back into the game without the need for a jump ball.
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Jump balls
A jump ball is a method of resuming play in basketball, where a referee throws the ball into the air, with one player from each team jumping to gain possession. The players typically line up opposite each other and must try to tap the ball to a teammate. The jump ball is used at the start of a game, beginning possession for one team, and can also be used during the game when no team has clear possession, such as when there is a held ball, or the ball becomes wedged between the backboard and rim.
There has been some criticism of the jump ball, with some suggesting it interrupts the flow of the game and encourages defensive play with the hands, rather than the feet. The rules around jump balls have also been criticised, with some suggesting that the taller player has an advantage and that the rules should be changed to a 5v5 format, where the referee throws the ball high into the air.
In overtime, the possession arrow is reset, and play begins with another jump ball. If there are multiple overtime periods, the arrow is reset after each jump ball.
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Possession calculations
Possession is a crucial metric for understanding basketball analytics. It is used as a basis for calculating pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. The general assumption is that both teams will have a similar number of possessions during a game, making it easy to calculate efficiency numbers when adjusted to 100 possessions. This adds a meaningful dimension to basketball metrics.
A team is considered to be in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains control, or there is a field goal attempt. However, it is important to note that a field goal attempt does not always indicate the end of a possession. Technical free-throws, for instance, are not considered possessions as they do not always result in a change of possession.
There are various methods to calculate possession, with the most realistic estimator being:
> poss = FGA + 0.475 x FTA - ORB + TO
Where:
- FGA = Field Goal Attempts
- FTA = Free Throws Attempted (multiplied by 0.475, the consensus value for college basketball; in the NBA, 0.44 is typically used)
- ORB = Offensive Rebounds
- TO = Turnovers
This formula accounts for the fact that possessions end on turnovers and shots that the offense does not rebound. The Free Throws Attempted coefficient can be further refined through optimization algorithms, such as the Nelder-Meade algorithm, to better fit the data.
Additionally, some sources include "turnovers that are assigned to teams" in their possession calculations for greater precision.
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Possession changes
- Field Goal Attempt: When a player attempts a field goal, it marks the end of their team's possession. However, if the shot is missed and the same team retrieves the offensive rebound, their possession continues.
- Turnovers: Possession changes occur when the ball is turned over to the other team. Turnovers can happen due to violations, fouls, or loss of ball control.
- Free Throws: Not all free throws result in possession changes. Technical foul shots and "AND 1" situations do not count as possessions. Approximately 44% of free throws are estimated to result in possession changes.
- Jump Ball: In certain situations, a jump ball may be called by the referee, where two players from each team jump to gain control of the ball. The possession arrow, which points towards the team that lost the initial jump ball, determines which team gains possession without the need for another jump ball.
- Held Ball: In college basketball, an alternating-possession procedure may be used in certain situations, such as a held ball, where no team has clear control. The possession arrow is used to indicate which team gains possession.
Understanding possession changes and the factors that influence them is crucial for basketball analytics and evaluating team and player performance. Possession-based statistics provide valuable insights into offensive and defensive efficiency, allowing coaches and analysts to make informed strategic decisions.
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Possession estimator formula
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball, and understanding it is crucial for analysing the game. A team is considered to be in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains control or there is a field goal attempt.
The "possession arrow" is a rule that differentiates college basketball from professional basketball. It is officially known as the alternating-possession procedure and is used to put the ball in play with a throw-in rather than a jump ball.
Now, let's delve into the Possession Estimator Formula, which helps quantify possession in basketball:
The Possession Estimator Formula:
The formula for estimating possessions in basketball takes into account various factors, including field goal attempts, free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, and turnovers. Here is the formula:
5 * ((Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * Free Throw Attempts – 1.07 * (Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)) * (Field Goal Attempts – FG) + Turnovers) + (Opponent Field Goal Attempts + 0.4 * (Opponent Free Throw Attempts) – 1.07 * (Opponent Offensive Rebounds) / (Opponent Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds)) * (Opponent Field Goal Attempts – Opponent FG) + Opponent Turnovers))
Understanding the Formula:
- This formula provides a more stable estimate by considering both the team's statistics and their opponent's statistics.
- The 0.4 multiplier for free throw attempts is used because not all free throws result in a possession. Technical foul shots and certain other situations do not count as possessions.
- The formula also accounts for offensive rebounds, recognising that they can extend a team's possession.
- Turnovers are included in the formula as they result in a change of possession.
By applying this formula, analysts can gain deeper insights into the game, comparing offensive and defensive efficiency, and making more informed evaluations of team performance.
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