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Basketball is a game of turns, with teams trading possessions until the game ends. Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball, and many advanced metrics and efficiency measures are based on possession calculations. A team is in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. Possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt, turnover, or free throw. The more successful a team is on their offensive possessions, the more likely they are to win the game. Advanced statistics such as turnover percentage, offensive/defensive ratings, and points per possession are calculated using possession data.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition | A play that ends in a turnover, a field goal, or a free throw. Possessions are extended by offensive rebounds. |
| Calculation | FGA + 0.44*FTA + TO (turnovers) or FGA + 0.475 x FTA - ORB + TO. |
| Pace Calculation | Total number of turnovers/total possessions. |
| Points Per Possession | A stat used to control for pace when looking at points scored or allowed. |
| Offensive Rating | Standardizes PPP over 100 possessions. |
| Defensive Rating | Standardizes Opponent PPP over 100 possessions. |
| Net Rating | Obtained by subtracting Defensive Rating from Offensive Rating. |
| Importance | Possession is fundamental to playing the game and many advanced metrics. It is also important for efficiency calculations. |
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What You'll Learn
Possession changes
A possession is conventionally defined as a play that ends in either a turnover, a field goal, or a free throw. However, possessions are extended by offensive rebounds. Technical foul shots and "and-ones" do not count as possessions, and there may be multiple free throws on a single possession. Research has shown that about 44% of free throws take up possessions.
The formula for calculating possession in basketball is given as:
> Poss = FGA + 0.44 x FTA - ORB + TO
Where FGA is field goal attempts, FTA is free throw attempts, ORB is offensive rebounds, and TO is turnovers.
The number of possessions can be used to calculate other advanced statistics, such as turnover percentage or offensive/defensive ratings. Points per Possession (PPP) is a straightforward statistic that can be used to control for pace when looking at points scored or allowed. However, PPP can quickly lose interpretability with a few decimal places, so Offensive Rating or Defensive Rating is often used instead, which standardizes PPP over 100 possessions (the average number of possessions per game in the NBA).
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Possession extensions
One key factor that extends possessions is offensive rebounds. When a team secures an offensive rebound, they retain possession of the ball, allowing them to continue their offensive sequence. This extension of possession can be crucial, as it provides the team with another opportunity to score. The team can attempt another shot, potentially leading to more points and a shift in momentum.
The impact of offensive rebounds on possession is reflected in basketball analytics. When calculating the number of possessions for a team, offensive rebounds are subtracted from the total count. This adjustment ensures that the extended possessions due to offensive rebounds are accurately accounted for in statistical analyses.
Additionally, the concept of the "possession arrow" in college basketball introduces a unique aspect to possession extensions. In college basketball, when the game goes into overtime, the possession arrow is reset, and overtime begins with a jump ball. The team that gains possession after this jump ball is indicated by the possession arrow, and they are given possession for the next alternating-possession situation. This rule adds an interesting strategic layer to the game, as teams can plan their tactics accordingly.
Understanding possession extensions is essential for both coaches and players to make informed decisions during a game. By recognizing the impact of offensive rebounds and the rules surrounding possession extensions, teams can maximize their scoring opportunities and develop effective strategies to gain an advantage over their opponents.
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Possession calculations
Possession is a fundamental concept in basketball analytics. It is defined by the NBA as a team being in possession when a player is holding, dribbling, or passing the ball. A possession ends when the defensive team gains possession or there is a field goal attempt.
A possession is conventionally defined as a play that ends in either a turnover, a field goal, or a free throw, with one exception: possessions are extended by offensive rebounds. With this definition, we can aggregate field goals, free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds to estimate a team's number of possessions.
There are various ways to calculate the number of possessions in a basketball game. One of the most common formulas is:
> Possessions = FGA + 0.44 x FTA + TO
Here, FGA stands for field goal attempts, FTA stands for free throw attempts, and TO stands for turnovers. The 0.44 multiplier is used because not all free throws take up a possession. Technical foul shots and "and-ones" do not count as possessions, and there might be more than one free throw on a single possession. Research has determined that about 44% of free throws take up possessions.
Another formula for calculating possessions is:
> Possessions = FGA + 0.475 x FTA - ORB + TO
This formula is considered a more realistic possession estimator. The 0.475 multiplier is the consensus value for college basketball, while 0.44 is typically used for the NBA. ORB stands for offensive rebounds. This formula accounts for the fact that possessions end on turnovers and shots that the offense does not rebound.
The number of possessions is important in basketball analytics because it allows for the calculation of other advanced statistics. For example, turnover percentage can be calculated by dividing the total number of turnovers by the total number of possessions. Points per Possession (PPP) is another useful statistic that can be calculated by controlling for pace and standardizing over 100 possessions.
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Points per possession
PPP can be calculated by dividing the total points by the total possessions. The formula for this is Pts / (FGAt + 0.44 x FTAt – OREBt + TO). This formula makes it clear that FGAt, FTAt and TO are the three ways that possessions end, and that OREBt extend possessions and allow additional FGAts, FTAts and TOs within that same possession. The 0.44 factor in the formula is used to accurately represent the amount of possessions used during total free-throw attempts.
PPP can be controlled for pace by standardizing PPP over 100 possessions, which is roughly the average number of possessions per game in the NBA. This is useful because it can quickly become confusing with a few decimal places.
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Turnover percentage
> (Turnovers x 100) / (Field Goal Attempts + Free Throw Attempts x 0.44 + Assists + Turnovers)
The 0.44 multiplier accounts for free throws that do not result in possessions, such as technical foul shots and "and-ones".
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