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Basketball is a sport that uses analytics and statistics to measure a player's impact on the game. These statistics are used to calculate a player's rating, which is an indicator of their performance and contribution to the team. There are various metrics used to assess a basketball player's performance, including efficiency ratings, such as Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Value Point Score (VPS), and individual offensive and defensive ratings. These ratings are calculated using formulas that consider factors such as scoring metrics, ball possessions, and defensive stops. While ratings provide an objective view of a player's strengths and weaknesses, it's important to remember that there are intangible aspects of the game that can't be easily measured with statistics.
Basketball Ratings
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Creator | John Hollinger, a sportswriter |
| Purpose | To measure each player's overall impact on the game |
| Parameters | Positive results: field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals; Negative results: missed shots, turnovers, personal fouls |
| Calculation | Adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system |
| Rating | League average is 15, above 15 is good, above 20 is great, above 25 is elite |
| Applicability | Applicable for players in NBA, WNBA, NCAA, G-League, EuroLeague, FIBA events |
| Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings | Developed by Dean Oliver in his 2004 book Basketball on Paper |
| Individual Offensive Rating | Number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions |
| Individual Defensive Rating | Influenced by the team's defensive efficiency |
| Plus/Minus Rating System | Accounts for hidden contributions like deflections, fouls drawn, charges taken, second assists, help and recovers, good spacing |
| Rating Scale for Players | Useless & Clueless (0-10), Useless, Not Clueless (11-20) |
| Rating Scale for Non-NBA Players | 0-150 |
| Rating Scale for NBA Players | 150-250 |
| Rating Scale for Exceptional NBA Players | 250-300 |
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What You'll Learn
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is an all-in-one basketball rating system developed by John Hollinger to assess a player's per-minute productivity. It uses a detailed formula to rate a player's statistical performance, taking into account both positive and negative results. Positive results include field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals, while negative results include missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The formula adds up positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system.
PER aims to measure a player's per-minute performance, adjusted for the pace of the game. This adjustment ensures that players on slower-paced teams are not penalised for having fewer possessions than faster-paced teams. The league-average PER is always set to 15.00, allowing for comparisons across seasons. This standardisation helps evaluate players relative to the average performance in their respective seasons.
While PER provides a single-number summary of a player's statistical accomplishments, it is not a definitive evaluation of a player's season performance, especially for defensive specialists. Bruce Bowen, for example, was regarded as one of the NBA's best defenders in the 2006-07 season but had low PERs due to fewer blocks and steals. PER also rewards inefficient shooting and may undervalue players with diverse skills who can play starter's minutes.
Despite these limitations, PER offers a valuable tool for comparing players' productivity and performance across different seasons and teams. It provides a quantitative reference for assessing players' contributions, complementing other metrics and evaluations in basketball performance analysis.
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Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings
Offensive Ratings
Offensive Ratings represent the number of points produced by a player per 100 possessions consumed. In other words, it estimates how many points a player is likely to generate when they attempt to score. The basic components of the Offensive Rating calculation are individual total possessions and individual points produced. The formula for total possessions includes scoring possessions, missed field goal (FG) possessions, missed free throw (FT) possessions, and turnovers.
Oliver emphasizes that Offensive Ratings should not be viewed in isolation, but rather in conjunction with a player's "Usage Rate," which indicates the size of their role in the team's offense. The larger the role, the more challenging it is to maintain a high Offensive Rating. Therefore, it is essential to compare a player's Offensive Rating to those of players in similar positions.
Defensive Ratings
Defensive rating, or defensive efficiency, is a statistic used to assess an individual player's or team's effectiveness at preventing the opposing team from scoring points. It was also introduced by Dean Oliver in *Basketball on Paper*. The Defensive Rating calculation considers the instances of a player ending an opposing possession, including blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, forced turnovers, and forced misses.
Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's overall defensive efficiency. This statistic assumes that all teammates are equally proficient at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, and that they face the same number of total possessions per minute.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
Developed by John Hollinger, the PER is another efficiency metric in basketball. It aims to encapsulate all of a player's contributions into a single value. The PER takes into account various positive and negative outcomes, such as field goals, free throws, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. This rating is adjusted to a per-minute basis to facilitate comparisons between players with different playing times.
While the PER provides a comprehensive assessment, it primarily measures offensive performance and may not accurately reflect a player's defensive capabilities. Additionally, it has been criticized for potentially overvaluing a player's contribution in limited minutes or against weaker opposition.
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Plus/Minus Rating System
The Plus/Minus Rating System, also known as +/- or Plus-Minus, is a tool used in the NBA to measure a player's impact on the game. It calculates the net change in the score when a given player is on or off the court. For example, if a player was in the game for the last 6 minutes and their team outscored the opponent by 5 points, their +/- rating would be +5.
Plus-Minus can be calculated over multiple shifts, with the net total being the sum of the individual shift ratings. This helps to account for all the "hidden contributions" players make, such as deflections, fouls drawn, charges taken, second assists, help and recovers, and good spacing. It can also help coaches determine which player combinations work best and identify undervalued players who consistently contribute to winning basketball but may not post impressive traditional statistics.
The NBA has been publishing plus-minus values in official box scores since the 2007-2008 season. While Plus-Minus is a valuable tool, it should not be the sole metric used to evaluate players. It has several limitations, including the heavy influence of teammates' performance, the reliance on a large sample size, and the lack of consideration for the quality of the opponent team or specific game situations.
Plus-Minus ratings are just one way to rate players in basketball. Other rating systems, such as the Player Efficiency Rating (PER) developed by John Hollinger, attempt to collect all of a player's contributions into a single number. PER takes into account various positive and negative results, such as field goals, free throws, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. It also adjusts for pace and playing time, allowing for comparisons between substitutes and starters.
Other rating scales for basketball players include those developed by fans and communities, such as the r/Basketball community on Reddit, which rates players on a scale from 0 to 250+, with separate ranges for non-NBA players, NBA players, and exceptional NBA players at their peak.
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Value Point Score (VPS)
Value Point System (VPS) is a statistic created to evaluate a player's efficiency and provide a more holistic indication of their overall performance. It is designed to be easily understandable and achievable for players of all ages, emphasising the importance of the "little things" that contribute to winning games.
The VPS formula takes into account various aspects of a player's performance, including points scored, rebounds, steals, blocks, charges, assists, missed field goals, fouls, and turnovers. It provides a numerical value that represents the player's overall effectiveness, with a VPS of 1 being average and a VPS of 2 or higher indicating excellent performance.
The VPS has been praised by coaches and players for its ability to motivate and engage players, encouraging them to evaluate their performance, set goals, and improve. It empowers players to understand that their contributions extend beyond just scoring points. By focusing on the VPS, players can discover areas for improvement and develop specific skills to become more well-rounded athletes.
Additionally, the VPS helps coaches make informed decisions during tryouts, training procedures, and game strategies. It provides an objective means of evaluating players, identifying areas of deficiency, and recognising those who are truly valuable to the team's success. The VPS also enables coaches to effectively combine different players on the court, utilising their strengths to elevate the team's performance.
The VPS is adaptable to different levels of play and can be applied to both recreational leagues and high school teams. It provides a clear direction on what a successful team should look like, fostering confidence in players and encouraging them to strive for improvement.
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NBA player ratings
The NBA is the pinnacle of basketball, with players in the league occupying the top 0.00008525% of players globally. As such, there are several metrics and ratings used to evaluate the performances of NBA players.
One of the most popular metrics is the Player Efficiency Rating (PER), developed by John Hollinger. This rating attempts to consolidate all of a player's contributions into a single value. The PER takes into account various positive results, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals. It also considers negative results like missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls. The formula adds positive statistics and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. A league-average PER is always set to 15.00, allowing for comparisons across seasons. The highest PER score recorded belongs to Nikola Jokić, with a score of 32.85.
Another set of metrics evaluates individual offensive and defensive performances. Developed by Dean Oliver in his 2004 book, "Basketball on Paper", these ratings quantify a player's efficiency. The individual offensive rating, according to Oliver, is "the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions." The formula for calculating total possessions includes scoring possessions, missed FG possessions, missed FT possessions, and turnovers. The scoring possessions formula is particularly intricate. Similarly, the defensive rating considers instances of a player ending an opposing possession (blocks, steals, defensive rebounds) and estimates forced turnovers and misses.
While these metrics provide valuable insights, it's important to interpret them within the appropriate context. For instance, Dean Oliver emphasizes that Offensive Ratings should be judged alongside a player's Usage Rate, acknowledging that larger roles in a team's offense can impact efficiency. Additionally, certain defensive specialists may not accumulate blocks or steals, potentially undervaluing their contributions. As a result, it's essential to consider a holistic view of a player's impact, combining these metrics with qualitative analysis to fully appreciate their performance and value to their team.
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