Andrew Pace
Every year, college basketball fans fill out one (or several) March Madness brackets, predicting which teams will advance and be crowned NCAA basketball champions. However, the odds of a perfect bracket are extremely slim, estimated to be 1 in 9.2 quintillion if each game is considered a 50-50 coin flip. While some brackets have come close to perfection, no one has ever submitted a fully verified perfect bracket for the NCAA March Madness tournament. The closest anyone has come was in 2019 when Gregg Nigl's bracket predicted the first 49 games correctly.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Possibility of a perfect bracket | Technically possible |
| Odds of a perfect 63-game bracket | 1 in 9.2 quintillion (assuming every game is a 50-50 coin flip) |
| Odds of a perfect bracket with NCAA men's basketball knowledge | 1 in 28 billion (according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen) |
| 1 in 120.2 billion (according to the NCAA) | |
| 1 in 128 billion (according to DePaul University professor Jeff Bergen in 2019) | |
| Longest perfect bracket streak | 36 games (in 2014, Brad Binder went 36 for 36) |
| Longest streak of correct picks | 49 games (Gregg Nigl in 2019) |
| Number of perfect brackets in 2019 | Abnormally high due to the relative predictability of the tournament |
| Number of perfect brackets in 2022 | All brackets busted on the first Friday |
| Number of perfect brackets in 2023 | All brackets busted by the 25th game |
| Number of perfect brackets in 2025 | Longest streak was 25 games |
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What You'll Learn
The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA basketball bracket are often reported as 1 in 9.2 quintillion. This assumes that each game is a 50-50 coin flip, which is not an accurate representation of the odds as knowledge of the sport and its history can improve your chances. That said, the odds are still incredibly slim, and it's unlikely that anyone will ever fill out a perfect bracket.
To put the odds into perspective, if every person in the United States filled out a unique bracket that was 66.7% accurate, we would expect to see a perfect bracket in 366 years. In other words, we would have to wait until the year 2385. Additionally, a group of researchers at the University of Hawaii estimated that there are 7.5 quintillion grains of sand on Earth. If you were given one of those grains of sand at random and had to guess which one it was, your odds of being correct would be 23% better than your odds of picking a perfect bracket.
Despite the overwhelming odds, some people have come incredibly close to achieving perfection. In 2019, Gregg Nigl's bracket correctly predicted the first 49 games of the tournament before finally being busted in game 50. Nigl's bracket was so impressive that it gained national attention, with Nigl even appearing on CNN. Prior to Nigl's feat, the longest perfect bracket streak tracked was 36 games, achieved by Brad Binder in 2014.
While it may be technically possible to fill out a perfect bracket, the odds are so low that it's not worth holding your breath. However, this doesn't stop millions of Americans from trying each year, and who knows, maybe one day someone will get lucky and beat the odds.
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Gregg Nigl's near-perfect 2019 bracket
Gregg Nigl, a 40-year-old neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, came extremely close to achieving a perfect bracket in 2019. His bracket, named "center road", correctly predicted the outcomes of the first 48 or 49 games of the 2019 NCAA tournament, setting a new record.
Nigl had filled out four different brackets overall, and the perfect bracket was one that he almost didn't fill out. On the morning of March 19, 2019, he and his wife, Casandra, set out on a 12-hour drive to Vermont with their two children. He had planned to keep loose tabs on how his brackets were doing during the drive, with March Madness as the soundtrack for the trip. However, he had no idea that his bracket was perfect until NCAA.com tracked him down.
Nigl's strategy for his 2019 brackets included going heavy on his favourite team, Michigan, and his favourite conference, the Big Ten, except for Ohio State. He also picked Gonzaga as the eventual winner of the tournament. Additionally, he followed the time-honoured tradition of picking a random school he had a loose tie to. In this case, he knew someone who lived near the UC-Irvine campus, so he predicted that the 13-seed Anteaters would upset Big 12 champion Kansas State in the first round, which they did.
Nigl's achievement is even more remarkable considering the odds of achieving a perfect bracket. While the odds are often reported as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, assuming all games are coin flips, the actual odds for a knowledgeable person are estimated to be closer to 1 in 120 billion. Despite this, Nigl remained humble about his success, attributing his achievement to pure luck.
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ESPN user Bekins24 had a perfect bracket in 2022
While there has never been a verified perfect NCAA men's basketball bracket, ESPN user Bekins24 came close in 2022.
Bekins24's bracket was the last perfect one remaining in the 2022 NCAA tournament, lasting 28 games before being busted by No. 11 Iowa State's 59-54 win over No. 6 LSU. This was an upset that knocked out the remaining perfect brackets, similar to how Middle Tennessee's win over Michigan State in 2019 had a significant impact on brackets.
The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are extremely high, estimated at 1 in 9.2 quintillion if each game is considered a 50-50 coin flip. When accounting for NCAA men's basketball knowledge, DePaul professor Jeff Bergen estimated the odds to be closer to 1 in 28 billion. The chances of a perfect bracket improve with more knowledge of the current teams, the tournament's history, and an understanding of the sport itself.
Despite the extremely low odds, some brackets have come close to perfection. In 2019, Gregg Nigl's bracket correctly predicted the first 49 games of the tournament before being eliminated in the 50th game. This was the best-known bracket in men's NCAA basketball history at the time and briefly became famous as the "center road" bracket.
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The impact of upsets on brackets
Upsets have a significant impact on brackets, and the possibility of upsets is what makes bracket predictions challenging and exciting. An upset is defined as a victory by an underdog team, generally constituting a team defeating an opponent with a substantially higher seed.
In the context of the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, a single-elimination tournament, a tournament upset is specifically defined as a victory by a team seeded five or more lines below their opponent. These low-seeded teams are automatically paired against higher-seeded teams at the start, so their victories are almost always considered upsets.
Upset bonuses are a popular feature in bracket pools, where participants earn bonus points for correctly predicting upsets. The most common scoring system uses round-based scoring (1-2-4-8-16-32) and adds a seed difference upset bonus. For example, a 12 seed beating a 5 seed can earn eight times the points compared to the 5 seed winning. This incentivizes participants to make riskier picks and adds an element of strategy to the bracket pools.
However, picking upsets can be challenging, and the odds of predicting a perfect bracket are extremely low. The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are estimated to be as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, assuming each game has a 50% chance of either outcome. When factoring in basketball knowledge, the odds improve but are still estimated to be as low as 1 in 28 billion or even 1 in 120 billion.
Despite the long odds, there have been some notable instances of nearly perfect brackets. In 2019, Gregg Nigl's bracket correctly predicted the first 49 games of the tournament, the closest anyone has come to a perfect bracket. In 2014, Brad Binder had a perfect bracket through the first 36 games, and in 2015, an ESPN bracket game participant picked the first 34 games correctly.
While a perfect bracket may seem unattainable, upsets keep the game interesting and provide an opportunity for strategic risk-taking in bracket pools.
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The importance of knowledge in predicting brackets
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket are often reported as 1 in 9.2 quintillion. This figure assumes that the outcome of each game is a coin flip, with a 50/50 chance of either outcome. However, this assumption is not accurate, as certain teams have much higher probabilities of winning than others. Taking this into account, the odds of a knowledgeable person picking a perfect bracket are estimated to be closer to 1 in 120 billion.
While it may seem like an impossible task, knowledge of the sport and its history can significantly improve your chances of predicting a perfect bracket. For example, before 2018, it was almost guaranteed that all four No. 1 seeds would win their initial matchups, giving those with this knowledge four automatically correct predictions. Understanding the current teams, the tournament's history, and the sport itself can increase your chances of predicting a perfect bracket.
In addition to knowledge, another factor that can improve your chances is understanding the "true trajectory" of teams' seeding positions. By analyzing the seeding given out to teams, weaknesses can be identified, and more accurate predictions can be made. This strategy suggests that a perfect bracket could be achieved if teams followed their expected trajectories based on their seeding.
Despite the vast improbability, some individuals have come remarkably close to achieving a perfect bracket. In 2019, Gregg Nigl's bracket correctly predicted the first 49 games of the tournament before finally being proven incorrect in the 50th game. This feat earned him brief fame and showcased that it is possible to come extremely close to perfection with a combination of knowledge and luck.
In conclusion, while the odds of a perfect bracket are astronomically small, knowledge of college basketball, its history, and the teams involved can significantly enhance your chances of predicting correctly. Understanding the seeding trajectories of teams and utilizing strategic analysis can further improve your predictions. Although a perfect bracket may be incredibly difficult to achieve, the pursuit of it adds excitement and challenge to the world of college basketball.
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Frequently asked questions
No, it is highly unlikely that anyone has ever had a perfect basketball bracket. The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are estimated to be as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
The chances of getting a perfect bracket are slim. If every game is considered a 50-50 coin flip, the odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. However, with knowledge of college basketball, the odds improve slightly to 1 in 28 billion, according to Professor Jeff Bergen.
Yes, in 2019, Gregg Nigl's bracket correctly predicted the first 49 games of the NCAA tournament before busting in game 50. This was the best-known bracket in men's NCAA basketball history at the time.
Several factors make it challenging to achieve a perfect bracket. The variance in men's college basketball, the impact of upsets, and the unpredictability of factors like travel, injury, and other random events all contribute to the difficulty of predicting every game correctly.
