Helena Frye
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA basketball bracket are incredibly slim. As of 2015, the odds of a perfect 63-game bracket were estimated to be 1 in 9.2 quintillion, assuming each game had a 50% chance of going either way. When NCAA men's basketball knowledge is factored in, the odds improve to 1 in 28 billion according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen, or 1 in 120 billion according to the NCAA. Despite this, millions of people fill out brackets each year, and some have come remarkably close to perfection. In 2019, Gregg Nigl, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, correctly predicted the outcomes of the first 49 games of the men's tournament, setting a new record.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket | 1 in 9.2 quintillion |
| Odds of a perfect bracket with NCAA men's basketball knowledge | 1 in 28 billion |
| Odds of a perfect bracket according to the NCAA | 1 in 120.2 billion |
| Odds of a perfect bracket according to Forbes | 1 in 120 billion |
| Longest perfect bracket streak | 49 games, Gregg Nigl in 2019 |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining as of 4:30 p.m. on Friday, 2025 | 375 |
| Percentage of brackets remaining perfect as of Friday afternoon, 2025 | 0.0188% |
| Number of perfect brackets remaining out of 24 million on ESPN, 2025 | 25,802 |
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What You'll Learn
The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion
The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA basketball bracket are often reported as 1 in 9.2 quintillion. This figure assumes that the outcome of each game is a coin flip, with a 50% chance of predicting the result correctly. In reality, some teams have a higher probability of winning than others, so the odds of predicting a perfect bracket with some knowledge of basketball are closer to 1 in 28 billion or 1 in 120 billion.
Despite this, no one has ever picked a verified perfect NCAA men's bracket. The closest anyone has come is 49 correct predictions out of 49 games, achieved by Gregg Nigl in 2019. Nigl, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, became the first verified bracket ever to pick correctly through to the Sweet 16. His success was partly attributed to luck, as he picked mostly teams he had never seen play a minute of basketball.
The difficulty in achieving a perfect bracket is due to the high variance in men's college basketball. The rise of the 3-point shot, the transfer portal, and NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) rights have all contributed to this variance. In addition, the large number of teams participating in the tournament, and the single-elimination format, make it extremely challenging to predict every game correctly.
While the odds of 1 in 9.2 quintillion may be slightly exaggerated, the fact remains that achieving a perfect NCAA basketball bracket is an incredibly difficult feat. The vast number of possible outcomes and the inherent unpredictability of the games make it a challenging and exciting endeavour for fans and enthusiasts alike.
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Gregg Nigl's near-perfect 2019 bracket
In 2019, Gregg Nigl, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, came extremely close to achieving a perfect bracket. His bracket, named "center road", correctly predicted the outcomes of the first 48 or 49 games of the 2019 NCAA tournament, setting a new record.
Nigl, a 40 or 45-year-old who works with veterans to help them manage dementia, memory loss, and other cognitive issues, is described as a modest, quiet, and brilliant person. His strategy for filling out his bracket involved a little strategy, a little eye test, and a little wishful thinking. He picked mostly teams he had never seen play and went heavy on his favourite teams and conferences. He also picked a random school with which he had a loose tie. In this case, he knew someone who lived near the UC-Irvine campus, so he predicted that the 13-seed Anteaters would upset Big 12 champ Kansas State in the first round, which they did.
Nigl's bracket was the only one to make it past 37 games unscathed and managed to reach 39 or 48 straight correct picks before it was handed its first loss when Purdue beat Tennessee 99-94 in overtime in the second game of the Sweet 16.
The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket have been estimated at 1 in 9.2 quintillion if every game is considered a 50-50 coin flip. However, when taking NCAA men's basketball knowledge into the formula, the odds of a perfect bracket drop to 1 in 28 billion or even 1 in 120 billion.
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Upsets ruin brackets
The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, assuming every game is a 50-50 coin flip. When accounting for NCAA men's basketball knowledge, the odds improve slightly to 1 in 28 billion. However, no one has ever picked a verified perfect NCAA men's bracket, and upsets are a significant factor in ruining brackets.
In the 2025 NCAA tournament, UMBC's historic 16-1 upset victory over Virginia knocked out all the perfect brackets that had survived the first 28 games. Upsets have become more frequent in recent years, with an average of 8.5 upsets per season. In 2021, there were 14 upsets, the highest number in the past 13 years.
Several factors can contribute to upsets, such as the rise of the 3-point shot, the transfer portal, and NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) rights. Additionally, the variance in men's college basketball has never been higher, making it challenging to predict outcomes accurately.
While upsets can ruin brackets, many fans still enjoy the excitement and unpredictability they bring to the game. Some fans root for chaos, knowing that most brackets will inevitably be busted anyway. The upsets and unexpected outcomes are often considered the most fun part of March Madness, creating thrilling and memorable moments for fans.
To minimize the impact of upsets on brackets, some strategies can be employed. For example, it is recommended to pick at least one No. 2 seed to lose in the second round, as this has occurred roughly 1.2 times per year in past tournaments. Additionally, a No. 1 seed has been upset in the second round about once every other year. By considering historical data and identifying potential underdog teams, fans can make more informed decisions when filling out their brackets.
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Brackets are busted early
To put this into perspective, consider this: if every person on the planet (7.5 billion) started filling out a bracket per minute, it would take over 2,000 years to reach 9.2 quintillion. The chances of achieving a perfect bracket are so slim that it's often referred to as a nearly impossible feat, akin to winning the lottery or being struck by lightning.
Despite the odds, some people have come remarkably close to perfection. In 2019, Gregg Nigl, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, achieved the longest streak of correct picks in men's NCAA basketball history, correctly predicting the outcomes of the first 49 games of the tournament. However, his bracket, like so many others, eventually busted when Purdue, the No. 3 seed, defeated No. 2 Tennessee in the Sweet 16.
The early busting of brackets is a common theme in the NCAA tournament. In 2025, for example, UMBC's historic 16-1 upset victory over Virginia knocked out all the perfect brackets that had survived the first 28 games of the tournament. Similarly, in 2023, a stunning victory by No. 16 FDU over No. 1 Purdue ended the dreams of perfection for many bracket enthusiasts.
With such slim odds and the ever-present potential for upsets, it's no wonder that brackets are frequently busted early in the tournament.
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Pure luck is the biggest factor in a great bracket
It is extremely difficult to achieve a perfect NCAA bracket. In fact, it is considered a nearly impossible feat by mathematicians. The odds of a perfect 63-game NCAA bracket are estimated to be as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, assuming each game is a 50-50 coin flip. When accounting for NCAA men's basketball knowledge, the odds improve slightly to 1 in 28 billion, according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen. Even with advances in analytics and increased accessibility to games and experts, the variance in men's college basketball has never been higher, making it even more challenging to achieve a perfect bracket.
Despite the long odds, some individuals have come remarkably close to achieving perfection. In 2019, Gregg Nigl, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, achieved the longest streak of correct picks in a March Madness bracket, correctly predicting the outcomes of the first 49 games before finally missing on the 50th game. Nigl's achievement is made even more impressive by the fact that he picked mostly teams he had never seen play a minute of basketball. However, even with his impressive performance, Nigl still fell short of a perfect bracket, highlighting just how challenging it is to achieve perfection.
While it may be tempting to attribute a perfect bracket to skill or expertise, the single biggest factor contributing to a great bracket is often pure luck. The high variance in men's college basketball, influenced by factors like the rise of the 3-point shot, the transfer portal, and NIL, makes it extremely difficult to accurately predict the outcomes of all games. Even a single missed shot or upset can ruin an otherwise perfect bracket. As a result, luck plays a significant role in achieving a high level of success.
Furthermore, the sheer number of possible outcomes for a bracket makes it incredibly challenging to achieve perfection. With 63 games in a normal NCAA tournament bracket, the number of possible outcomes is 2^63, or 9,223,372,036,854,775,808, or 9.2 quintillion. To put this into perspective, if every person on the planet (7.5 billion) started filling out a bracket per minute, it would take over 2,000 years to exhaust all possibilities. This massive number of potential outcomes underscores the role of luck in achieving a perfect bracket.
In conclusion, while skill and knowledge may play a role in creating a great bracket, pure luck is undoubtedly the biggest factor in achieving perfection. With incredibly slim odds and a vast number of possible outcomes, a perfect bracket is an extremely rare and challenging feat. So, while it may be fun to strive for perfection, it is important to recognize that luck will ultimately play a significant role in determining the success of your bracket.
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Frequently asked questions
No, it has never been done.
The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion if each game is considered a 50-50 coin flip. However, if you have knowledge of NCAA basketball, the odds improve to 1 in 28 billion, according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen. Another source puts the odds at 1 in 120 billion.
Yes, in 2019, Gregg Nigl, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, correctly predicted the outcomes of the first 49 games of the men's tournament.
The variance of men's college basketball has never been higher, due to factors such as the rise of the 3-point shot, the transfer portal, and NIL.
According to Nigl, the top and bottom seeds (1s and 2s, 15s and 16s) are usually accurate, and the next tier (3-4, 13-14) are typically close. He suggests that the committee often misjudges seeds 5-8. His favourite value pick is the 11 seeds, which have had success in recent years. Ultimately, however, luck plays a significant role in achieving a perfect bracket.
